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Notes -
I think it’s going to fall, though to be honest I think baseball is falling faster. I live in a baseball town, and yes you’ll see team gear, but nobody really gets into the ins and outs of the game, and don’t follow the game or the players to any real degree. Most of the players are Hispanic imports from abroad, and really, the games up until the all-star break don’t matter much. And unless you’re super into pitching, Theres not nearly enough action to keep people interested in the game, to the point where the league itself feels the need to artificially speed up the game with pinch hitters, pitch clocks, and base runners in extra innings. If you need to speed up the game to make it watchable, it’s not going to last.
I like football, but I think the game has too many stops. It’s hard to keep watching when 1/2 or more of the “play” time is standing around waiting to actually play the one play before standing around waiting for the next play. Add in that with rare exceptions, most plays outside the red zone don’t matter much, and you get a game that is 99% fluff. You end up doing other things while waiting for the good parts of the game. And I don’t see that as being a sustainable model for a popular sport.
Most pro sports also have a big problem in the price of attending an actual game. It costs hundreds to attend a game in the NFL. It’s somewhat better for baseball. And figuring out which of the streaming services actually show your team often means subscriptions to multiple services and dealing with blackout games. It makes introducing the game to kids harder. And if you don’t make it easy for kids to get into the game, then eventually they find other things to watch and do and get into.
Analytics I think has ruined the in-game baseball experience now. The movement to 3-outcome players (walk, strike-out, home run) means that when you watch the game in the stadium you can’t see most of the action.
The pitcher-batter battle I think has greatly improved but you only see that watching on tv.
The costs of attendance seems to be a function of a K-Shaped economy. You can find cheap tickets to watch second tier games.
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Point me to the popular sport where I can't make this complaint. I mean, the answer is hockey, which is the least popular of the major pro sports leagues and faces constant ratings decline. A game that is 99% fluff appears to be the only sustainable model for a sports league.
Baseball games take a long time between pitches and even longer between balls in play. Football games are short bursts of action between huddles and commercial breaks. Soccer is just endless dribbling and back passing and writhing around on the ground. Basketball seems like it features a lot of action and points scoring, but outside of the playoffs they mostly just go through the motions until the 4th quarter, and so many points are scored that every individual scoring play isn't that exciting. NASCAR races are mostly just watching left turns, long periods of time can pass with nothing really happening. Combat sports are probably the most variable of any sport, but you can't watch a full UFC card and not catch some really real lay'n'pray snoozefests.
The reality is simple: "boring" sports are just a matter of personal perception. If you don't understand or don't care about the game, then it's boring to watch; if you understand the game on a deep level and care about it, then it's interesting.
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