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PaperclipPerfector  2d ago (text post)   9440 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of October 19, 2026

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Linked under a discussion about Scott’s AI messaging: Politics is not interior design. Don’t feel bad about skimming the first half, which can be summed up as

Most people vastly overestimate their ability to predict second- and third-order effects of anything, including strategic speech.

The part I wanted to share comes near the end, when he asks why this keeps happening. Selection bias, sure, but also:

It is gratifying to see yourself as a subtle navigator of opinion dynamics, and less gratifying to admit that you are mostly guessing. "This would be counterproductive" is often the most prestigious available way to avoid saying something costly.

Our society really likes countersignaling. Fashion, politics, Internet debate clubs. Historical conspiracy theories. I think a lot of contrarian, edgy statements can be discounted because of this dynamic. Especially when it comes to social media.

I’m pretty convinced of this, at least without really good levels of subject matter knowledge. I would expect an economist to accurately predict second order effects of a tax hike or tariff increase on prices because he’s studied that system deeply. I would expect a geologist to be able to tell me whether or not fracking would destabilize geologic plates and cause more earthquakes. Or expect an expert on neurology to predict the effects of early screen use on the development of the human brain.

Take away the expertise, and it is effectively impossible because you don’t have enough background information to know the difference between things that are impossible, things that are rare, and things that are common. If I know for example, that tariffs lower imports, then it’s possible to say raised tariffs will raise prices on basic supply and demand. If not, I can’t really do that.

The contrarian approach mostly looks smart because it signals that you aren’t beholden to expert opinions and are supposedly looking for yourself. Which signals that you’re smart enough to do it and that you’re confident in your ability to do that. Smarts and confidence are seen as positive.

That’s part and parcel of the difficulty of peering behind the veil of emergent properties more generally.

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