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birb_cromble  1d ago (text post)   503 thread views

Qeekly Finance Thread 2026-10-31

A weekly thread to discuss financial matters - from personal all the way up to global.

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This weeks roundup:

The Fed has decided to hold at 3.75-4.00%, despite inflation rates remaining over target. Two votes dissented. Official communication indicates that more data is needed before another increase, while critics argue that the hold is due to political pressure around the upcoming election this week.

The Fed seems like they're stuck in a tight spot, if you believe the thesis that inflation is currently being driven by policy choices that are independent of interest rates.

[https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2130357/000162828026067168/anthropicpbc-sx1.htm](Anthropic has disclosed its S-1 to the public). Reporting has been highly variedso far, with something akin to Scott Adams' "two screens" metaphor happening. Bulls are focusing entirely on operating income and claiming that accounting losses on convertible notes are immaterial. Bears are focusing on a noteworthy lack of Q3 data.

Personally, I am not particularly impressed. But I'm very interested in bullish takes that don't involve the phrases "recursive self improvement" or "super intelligence".

Tech stocks stumbled this week as investors have grown anxious about cash flow. Google and Amazon, in particular, saw dips. Whether this anxiety persists remains to be seen.

a noteworthy lack of Q3 data.

Of course! If Q3 numbers were good, there would not be such a rush to IPO now, and instead they could wait a week. The numbers must be more miserable than people expect, even when they take this implication into account.

They have to wait 3 weeks by law (at least) between filing the S1 and formally launching the IPO, don't they?

Anthropic is in an interesting place right now.

I believe they must wait 15 days to IPO after the public filing of the S-1. They must also include financial data from within 134 days of the filing. They can, however, file an amended S-1 during that 15 day period without resetting the clock. There is a one day (if my math is right) window for them to do that. It's either world class financial engineering or a hell of a coincidence.

It's either world class financial engineering or a hell of a coincidence

What odds it involved Claude? Obviously not without significant human oversight, but still.

Personally, I don't think the leadership of Anthropic could take a shit without Claude telling them how to wipe.

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