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Notes -
Let's talk midterms. I haven't been keeping up with the races too much, but some quick research shows that Polymarket has odds for Democrats to take the House at ninety four percent and Democrats to take the Senate at seventy two percent (House market, Senate market). Apparently, the odds of a Republican sweep are down to five to seven percent (Balance of Power market).
Obviously, we can't really trust polls entirely. But I do trust the markets to be at least somewhat accurate, and so things are looking pretty horribly bad for Republicans. What are the actual implications if this happens? Because like I don't know, the second Trump term after Doge flopped, or rather, after Trump pulled back on Doge and was afraid to actually back them when it mattered. This whole term feels like kind of a mess.
What actual goals are going to be blocked by the Trump administration if the Democrats win a sweep? And I guess how much can they get done if they don't control the presidency? Or is it mainly, like, if they win the presidency in 2028 that things are gonna be bad? Walk me through the real ramifications of midterms flipping for the Democrats.
That depends on how much hardball they're willing to play, no?
They can refuse to confirm judicial appointments and other governmental appointments, they can refuse to pass the budgets Trump wants, launch investigations, etc.
These of course have possible downsides for themselves, but they would at least have real leverage for negotiations.
They can't really unilaterally do much in terms of legislation, but they can refuse to do things. What this actually amounts to depends a great deal on the republicans and trump but they wouldn't be powerless anymore.
Do you think they would actually go that far? What would be the fallout if they do?
Impossible to say. It all depends on the framing.
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