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Culture War Roundup for the week of November 2, 2026

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I really don't like making grand pronouncements (I think it's a bit narcissistic) but since I seem to have a reputation on The Motte I think it's only fair to take my licks:

  • Midterms were worse than I thought. I would have guessed 49-53 Senate seats for Dems and 220-230 seats in the House.
  • The collapse is so bad that I think it necessitates some new theories about how American politics works. I.e. I don't think Trump's record right now is worse than Bush in 2006 or Obama in 2010 or Biden in 2022. Voters clearly disagree? Inflation reached 8% in 2022, gas right now is lower adjusted for inflation than it was under Obama.
  • Obviously, Iran is very unpopular. I still accept Trump's judgment that it was the right thing to do and I still believe that the war is (plainly) a military success. (Call me crazy!)
  • Trump is a fighter and is going to strike back. I think all calls for his impeachment or step down are bad politics and also bad reads of Donald Trump.
  • Texas with Blue governance would be worse value than California or Illinois, because you don't even have the nice beaches and beautiful cities. But predictions that Texas is about to precipitously decline are overblown. (Texas has a lot of hot smart and beautiful people.)
  • I think the AI buildout will probably not stop, although it will have to reassess. I maintain that AI is so powerful that it's bad for Democrats to hand it over to Republicans even if it polls extremely well in the short and medium-term. I expect that a lot of AI Pause rhetoric will merely grease the wheels for Dems and tech to come to a new arrangement.
  • A lot of my friends who were loyal Trump guys are crashing out now. I do think it's still too soon to call this the death of MAGA, and there is no going back to the old establishment Republican consensus.
  • We're probably closing the window, globally, on a 10-year exuberance of populism and replacing it with something else. To those inclined to gloat, I suspect that whatever comes next will actually be worse for everybody. (For example, imagine a MAGA-Groyper fusion.) (You're going to miss Trump when he's gone.)
  • I think the Groypers might be earning a place in the future.
  • There have been a lot of predictions about Dems undergoing a realignment 10 years after the Republican realignment. I don't think this will happen at all. DSA and center-lib-left Dems will coexist quite peaceably in the way that only political allies that hate each other can.
  • The results were worse than I expected and losing will carry a lot of political consequences. But I maintain that midterms still matter for very little. The powers that Democrats are unlocking for themselves (such as imperiling the future of a Republican SCOTUS) are weak compared to the powers of the president.
  • I do not believe that Democrats are on the cusp of a permanent one-party state or any other despair narratives I see on the right. I don't think this will be true even if they do win in 2028.

Blah blah blah, words words words, excuses excuses, feel free to get your licks in now.

I think people liked the MAGA parts of Trump’s agenda, but disliked the neocon parts. So “back to the old Republican party” is exactly the wrong takeaway.

Unfortunately I also agree that the unpopularity of the war in iran is basically bullshit, and it was plainly the right thing to do. A full scale invasion would have been a terrible idea but neutering Iran is a positive. I hope we don’t let them off the hook.

Fuentes preached that if you wanted to stop the Israel lobby you had to be willing to hold a gun to the GOP’s head over the issue, even if it meant giving control to the Democrats. Clearly he meant it. I think this is idiotic. Complaining about money or military aid for Israel is one thing, but it’s a drop in the bucket compared to everything else.

I don't know what Fuentes truly believes, but if I try to reconstruct his theory by reading into his public statements it would be something like this:

The problem is not the money or military aid to Israel, it's the split loyalties, lack of focus, and bad optics caused by Israel-sympathizers in the American right. This problem is not just theoretical, since it is evident that Trump himself, the leader of MAGA, is a huge Israel-supporter. It is impossible to build a successful right-wing populist movement in the US as long as every time it wins power, it immediately disappoints its supporters by using that power to help Israel while neglecting American issues. Even just the appearance that it does this, even if the appearance is inaccurate, is devastating. We see this manifest itself in the midterm election. It is better to have a unified and potent smaller movement than to have a broader movement that does not accomplish the goals. Focused vanguardism is more likely to deliver results than unfocused split-loyalties Trumpist MAGAism that spends its efforts on Israel and ballrooms.

Yeah, but he also clearly just has a personal grudge. This was clear from his Tucker interview that he was extremely upset by the attempted deplatforming by the Israel lobby, and rather than acquiesce he made it his #1 issue out of spite.

He’s funny, he has good takes on some things, but his view that Israel is the most important issue and it’s worth burning it all down to beat the Israel lobby is, in my opinion, deranged and driven by personal grievance more than the logic you describe.

He actually does need to he made irrelevant, not because he’s anti-Semitic, but because he goes out of his way to make Republicans lose, and is very effective at it. And not even over an issue that is actually worthwhile.

And not even over an issue that is actually worthwhile.

I mean, if the issue isn't worthwhile then maybe Republicans should dump Israel