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PaperclipPerfector  4d ago (text post)   20881 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of November 2, 2026

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I really don't like making grand pronouncements (I think it's a bit narcissistic) but since I seem to have a reputation on The Motte I think it's only fair to take my licks:

  • Midterms were worse than I thought. I would have guessed 49-53 Senate seats for Dems and 220-230 seats in the House.
  • The collapse is so bad that I think it necessitates some new theories about how American politics works. I.e. I don't think Trump's record right now is worse than Bush in 2006 or Obama in 2010 or Biden in 2022. Voters clearly disagree? Inflation reached 8% in 2022, gas right now is lower adjusted for inflation than it was under Obama.
  • Obviously, Iran is very unpopular. I still accept Trump's judgment that it was the right thing to do and I still believe that the war is (plainly) a military success. (Call me crazy!)
  • Trump is a fighter and is going to strike back. I think all calls for his impeachment or step down are bad politics and also bad reads of Donald Trump.
  • Texas with Blue governance would be worse value than California or Illinois, because you don't even have the nice beaches and beautiful cities. But predictions that Texas is about to precipitously decline are overblown. (Texas has a lot of hot smart and beautiful people.)
  • I think the AI buildout will probably not stop, although it will have to reassess. I maintain that AI is so powerful that it's bad for Democrats to hand it over to Republicans even if it polls extremely well in the short and medium-term. I expect that a lot of AI Pause rhetoric will merely grease the wheels for Dems and tech to come to a new arrangement.
  • A lot of my friends who were loyal Trump guys are crashing out now. I do think it's still too soon to call this the death of MAGA, and there is no going back to the old establishment Republican consensus.
  • We're probably closing the window, globally, on a 10-year exuberance of populism and replacing it with something else. To those inclined to gloat, I suspect that whatever comes next will actually be worse for everybody. (For example, imagine a MAGA-Groyper fusion.) (You're going to miss Trump when he's gone.)
  • I think the Groypers might be earning a place in the future.
  • There have been a lot of predictions about Dems undergoing a realignment 10 years after the Republican realignment. I don't think this will happen at all. DSA and center-lib-left Dems will coexist quite peaceably in the way that only political allies that hate each other can.
  • The results were worse than I expected and losing will carry a lot of political consequences. But I maintain that midterms still matter for very little. The powers that Democrats are unlocking for themselves (such as imperiling the future of a Republican SCOTUS) are weak compared to the powers of the president.
  • I do not believe that Democrats are on the cusp of a permanent one-party state or any other despair narratives I see on the right. I don't think this will be true even if they do win in 2028.

Blah blah blah, words words words, excuses excuses, feel free to get your licks in now.

I just think Trump is too old now. He used to sort of break the rules of conventional politics, and get away with a lot because he was so good at answering opponents with funny retorts and social media. But he now he's just kind of old and grumpy and boring, so all of his controversial opinions come back to bite him and the rest of his party.

Trump in his current form reminds me of Biden 4 years ago. It's just darn hard to even understand what he's saying.

Biden and Trump represent the two distinct strategies for dealing with aging and not really totally understanding what's going on around you. Walk into any nursing home and you'll see the same things:

One group mumbles pleasant platitudes and general cliches, and just nods and pretends they know what's going on. They never really say anything specific, so if you aren't asking them direct questions you figure they're following along on the group's conversation and enjoying the company. You think "Oh isn't Grandma enjoying our visit so much!" And she is enjoying you being there, so she fakes it to keep you happy. Then something slips and you realize, oh grandma had no idea what was going on this whole time.

Another group of old people reacts to not really being able to hear or understand the conversation by loudly and angrily insisting on what they think the conversation is about. Get angry, get loud. Insist that you know what was going on, they're the ones who don't know what's going on! This is grandpa screaming at you that he knows the damn hot dog stand in 1963 was on 16th and Linden, not on 20th and Turner, he damn well knows it and you need to stop lying to him about it! You typically see this in older patriarchs, often those with money or other resources, because people will humor them to suck up to them for fear of being cut out of the will. Otherwise, they're so unpleasant to be around that people stop visiting any more than they need to.

Trump has been so charismatic and so powerful that the world really will bend itself around what are obviously dementia-addled statements like "Lake America" or reflecting pool vandalism. There are enough sycophants around him that any insane incorrect pronouncement he makes will be catered to by someone who wants something.

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