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Today I will post of the ballot measures. Similar to 2024, there were a lot. What is notable to me is that many states that ended up electing Democrat politicians also ended up voting for many initiatives that I'd consider Republican priorities, including lower taxes and voter ID. This includes four states that limited transgender athletes, transgender bathroom access, and more, those four states being Arizona, Colorado, Nebraska, and Washington.
One of my friends in Arizona quickly said that this might be the death of transgenderism as a politically relevant issue. He thought it was likely that the issue would be dropped as an election loser, as something that the people obviously did not want since they voted against it by majority in even what you might consider quite "Blue" states. I said what could be summarized as "I doubt it", maybe along with "you'd be surprised". I think I have been vindicated in saying this, as the Colorado governor is outright saying that he's going to fight these measures that have been passed to the best of his ability, and there are already schemes to nullify those ballot measures. Anecdotally, I see transgender rights commenters saying that the Arizona propositions are illegal even if the people did vote for them.
Most of these culture war issues are not things that can be resolved by simple votes. They can only be resolved through decades-long grueling lawfare. Blues don't take 'no' for an answer, as their responses to Heller and Bruen and now this ballot measure show.
The leftists in my life have mostly interpreted the election results as "sure, trans issues might be unpopular with the unwashed masses, but they're not enough to sink a candidate, so full steam ahead". Six states elected their first trans/nonbinary lawmakers. Those lawmakers, at least, are true believers: part of the reason they want power is so that they can advance trans issues.
However, in the US the executive branch is the one that controls how many trans people there are. Biden creatively interprets the Civil Rights Act and leans on social media companies to promote woke content, and the rate of trans youth goes up. Trump re-interprets the Civil Rights Act and leans on social media companies to promote anti-woke content, and the rate of trans youth plummets. The president can't undo transitions that have already happened, but he can marginalize those people to the point where they're not an immediately visible top-of-mind concern to the median voter.
So I predict that we will see no movement on trans issues in the US for the next two years. To the extent that Congress and state governments try to take action, they won't succeed, and voters won't really care. Then in 2029 a president who campaigned on an unrelated platform will turn the dial back up and it will become a big salient issue again.
I agree with you that social contagion (and especially social media contagion during the lockdown) drove the increase in the number of young people self-identifying as trans, and that social media censorship (and selective algorithmic amplification which isn't technically censorship) is a major piece of how the whole trans thing happened. But I don't think control of the White House drives social media censorship as much as you say it does. The big social media censorship scandals, including the trans ones, started during Trump's first term, and the evidence you link to says the trans thing peaked in 2023 when Biden was still in the White House and the Dems were still just about favourites to win in 2024.
In so far as the social media environment has changed in a way which means it no longer artificially boosts transactivists, it has a lot more to do with (in roughly descending order of importance)
In 2026, the only site where trannyjannies rule and normies still visit is Reddit. As far as I can see, the only normie-friendly site which might still be run by trannyjannies if Harris had won in 2024 is Facebook, even that feels like a longshot, and in any case I don't think filtering retarded Boomers' social media feeds is a could way of transing teenagers.
Facebook owns instagram, which is where the normie teens are, at much higher rates than tiktok.
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