Cause otherwise midterms discussion will be scattered around a bunch of separate Culture War thread posts. And it's nice to have more off-the-cuff rapid reactions in a dedicated megathread.
The first thing I've noticed so far: if the exit polls are correct, Americans are very pessimistic about AI.
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Notes -
I'd like to point out that a little over 2 years ago, most people here were saying that conservatism is completely doomed, and progressivism has completely overtaken all institutions. Then Trump won, and the mood seemed to shift, quite actually overnight, to that progressivism is done for and conservatism is back in style. Now it's shifting again. Also, remember when people were convinced Hillary Clinton was going to win in 2016, and that the Republicans would have no chance of winning a presidential election through 2032 (or whatever)? I wouldn't put too much stock in anything about the future, even in the face of a major Democratic win today.
I feel like every midterm election (which has consistently swung against the incumbent, by varying amounts) gets sold as "the end of [the lame duck president's party]". I've been promised permanent majorities many times, but even the best-planned only lasted a couple four-year terms. Obama won in '08, but a Republican won a Senate race in Massachusetts in '10 largely on the basis of objecting to that change, and the 2010 midterms were a "shellacking". Biden managed to drop like a stone in approval ratings too.
This one maybe seems more of a self-own than most (I don't feel qualified to judge that for the moment), but not outlandishly far outside the general pattern. Perhaps it's just the centrist in me, but I feel like not accepting a sweeping "not the other guy" mandate as fuel for your most partisan policy choices would be a long-term winning strategy. But what do I know?
I think you need to look at the context of the actual races here and what precisely the Republicans lost. This wasn't a wave like Obama regressing towards the mean. This was a sweep of safe seats.
Conversely, I don't think we should oversell the eventual reversal of these seats.
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Oh I agree that everyone, myself included, gets a bit kneejerk-y on Election Night, but this feels different. Trump has been the most polarizing political figure in generations, and now that a good portion of his base feels betrayed by him? I feel those effects may echo for a little while than the typical pendulum's swing.
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