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Midterms Megathread

Cause otherwise midterms discussion will be scattered around a bunch of separate Culture War thread posts. And it's nice to have more off-the-cuff rapid reactions in a dedicated megathread.

The first thing I've noticed so far: if the exit polls are correct, Americans are very pessimistic about AI.

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But the Democrats seem to actually want one party rule

Is this referring to something specific?

If they win in 2028 they will have the means to achieve it.

How?

They have said they want to stack the court.

The court is already stacked, just in your favor.

They have said they are going to prosecute people in the Trump administration. Doesn't this concern you at all?

Setting aside who 'they' actually refers to, the bigger concern is that the Trump administration has done so many prosecutable things. Of the four lawsuits against Trump, I'd agree the New York one was frivolous, but the other three were all for behavior that should be far beyond the pale for any president. Unfortunately, to a degree I didn't really appreciate before the Trump presidency, impeachment is the only way to actually punish said behavior.

Trump will probably pardon himself and his family on the way out - thanks Biden, for that precedent.

This has been touted as a positive for the last four years as conservatives have been cheering for Trump to bypass the 'deep state' and rule as he sees fit. Imagine president AOC (the only prominent democrat I can think of offhand that enrages conservatives to the same degree that Trump enrages liberals) wielding that power, all while her supporters cheering for her to own the cons. That's not one party rule, that's the shoe being on the other foot. You may not like it, but you can't argue that it's unfair.

What's more likely to happen? If democrats get the trifecta and a filibuster-proof majority in the senate in 2028, we probably see some legislation on par with obamacare prior to getting wiped out in the 2030 midterms. Nothing much changes (see: Build Back Better). Doubly so if they don't get the filibuster-proof majority. Some tax increases. Maybe a supreme court seat.

So no, not particularly worried overall. I don't expect to see anything that realistically affects me or my family in any major way. Without knowing the details of your life, I doubt I'd see anything that realistically affects you or your family beyond the much-derided 'gas prices are 1$ more expensive than before the war' tier.

Is this referring to something specific?

Democratic machine-style politics as practiced in NY, CA, and IL, I presume.

Well, I hope you're right!

One thing we agree on is that my own personal life is unlikely to be affected much. I'll probably be slightly less rich because of taxes. I'll be more likely to be the victim of a crime, but from an extremely low baseline risk level. On the other hand, I'll have access to cheaper immigrant labor. Might be a wash.

Longer term, one party rule will just mean the more rapid slide of our country on the path towards Brazil and eventually South Africa. Probably my sons will have certain political and career paths shut to them based on their skin color. They will certainly face discrimination. But the wealthy will continue to skate above the problems as they do in Brazil. It's not the end of the world.

And of course, AI is likely to upset this in ways we can't even imagine.