Cause otherwise midterms discussion will be scattered around a bunch of separate Culture War thread posts. And it's nice to have more off-the-cuff rapid reactions in a dedicated megathread.
The first thing I've noticed so far: if the exit polls are correct, Americans are very pessimistic about AI.
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Notes -
On the third, the Democrats won big time thanks to Trump, but they were not the only ones whom Trump helped to victory. More so than even with the Dems, the ones I am talking about are a group I have serious reservations about but whom I nevertheless root for in their conflict against Trump.
I am talking about Iran, of course.
Now, for all my faults, I am not a friend of the Iranian regime. They have an atrocious human rights record, and if the Iranian people can kick them out, I will be very happy for them. (They also sponsor murderous terrorist groups abroad, but let him whose government has never sponsored murderous terrorists cast the first stone.)
But I am a big fan of the international rule based order. This means that I want to see war of aggression fail, preferably fail spectacularly. This is why I am also rooting for Ukraine, for example. With Trump's and Bibi's Iranian adventure, there is no debate whose side is the aggressor. So obviously I would prefer for the US to get an expensive, humiliating defeat to reinforce the idea that wars of aggression do not pay off.
The goals of the Iranian regime are pretty aligned to mine in this. They are fighting a defensive war, they want to maintain as much of the status quo (their infrastructure being intact and their soldiers alive) as they can. But they arguably also want to establish a precedent that attacking them is a bad move.
However, their military capabilities are not up for bombing their enemy leadership, military or schools to try for a regime change (not that this worked for Trump either). So they did what was rational for them and suspended the freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz (thereby likewise violating international law). The Commander in Chief of the US military might be impervious to missiles, but he is very much vulnerable to the whims of his electorate, who are in turn vulnerable to economic pressure.
One of their war goals was "establish that attacking Iran is a presidency-ending mistake". I will admit that we are not quite there yet. But their labors have borne fruits, and now we have a regime change in Texas. Saddam Hussein would have given a hand for that.
Another thing Iran has accomplished is driving a wedge between the US and Israel. For most of my life, most Westerners did not have very strong feelings about Israel. Then Hamas (through their unmatched barbarism) incited them into leveling Gaza, killing 70k Palestinians (mostly likely non-combatants) in the process. We have all seen the before-and-after aerial photos, and some of us (me included) started to find that we actually gave a fuck. Then Netanyahu tricked the gullible Trump (who had already proven his usefulness by bombing IRGC officers in his first term) into spending a few dozen billions on bombing Iran, a move which helps Israel a lot more than it helps Americans.
Now, it is not like AIPAC does not have a majority in Congress anymore or anything, but the mere threat of people voting against their candidates is already constraining what they can do. Hence the decision of Trump and Netanyahu to get rid of the military aid (or at least be a bit more discreet about it). In the very least, it seems safe to say that no future US president will be roped into military action by Israel without carefully considering 'but what if this backfires domestically?'
Obviously Iran has not won yet, but I think the midterms were the most significant development in the conflict. It is a clear sign that the US is not willing to bear the expenses of the war indefinitely. Nor have any other countries been very enthusiastic about defending the freedom of navigation with their navies.
Now, ideally, the US would just pay reparations to Iran and Iran would allow innocent passage again, but realistically that is not going to happen. Still, I do think the US is going to tire of escorting tankers before Iran tires of attacking them, so in the long term we will either allow them to charge tolls or cut some other deal with them.
The US would if they could. They even tried. But Iran is obsessed with maximalist demands and likely won't allow free passage as long as the regime remains in power.
Saddest part of all of this in my imo. Every single other country in the world has been begging trump to surrender so that they can pay tolls. Really shows that "freedom of navigation" is just some made up word that actually just means the US running the seas.
I mean, can you possibly justify joining up with Trump after seeing how he's treated the gulf countries in this war? It's extremely obvious that joining a naval coalition with Trump at the lead signs you up for whatever Trump wants to get you into, with no notice or consultation. Countries aren't going to give up sovereignty in that way short of an existential threat.
Other countries could have put assets in the region to "monitor the situation" and done some saber rattling without directly getting involved. They could have even hinted slightly that they're not okay with Iran's maximalist demands.
Instead they haven't moved an inch and have only begged trump to unconditionally surrender.
Why do you think Iran would have bought the saber rattling and monitoring the situation?
This is the problem with "sudden surprise attack" as a strategy. When you get no buy in or even consultation with allies, those allies are ill-disposed to help you out fixing the mess, because they don't feel that you will treat them well.
The point is for countries not allied with Trump to make their own case against tolls. Foreign messaging could have sent the message:
Unconditional US surrender doesn't mean that other countries will accept tolls
Other countries will put the pressure that they can on Trump for him not to accept any deal with tolls.
The countries believe in the idea of freedom of navigation and will make efforts to preserve it.
Instead the messaging that 190 countries in the world sent is that they would LOVE to guzzle Iranian cock while paying for whatever tolls they ask. And they are BEGGING Trump to just unleash the Iranian tolls.
And how do you send the message to American president that he can't make a mess without consulting them, then expect them to clean it up for him?
Paying tolls to Iran for the next 100 years is a great way to stick it to Trump.
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Countries are sending the message to America that they won't clean up the mess just because America shits the bed. Boomer American ego is a bigger problem right now than Iranian tolls, though that may change.
Ok if other countries want to sleep in shit then they get to sleep in shit.
If someone shit in my bed I would be pissed but I would still clean it up.
So take responsibility and clean it up. At least the midterms have sent the vague message that random wars are bad for Presidents, though I doubt the lesson will stick.
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