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PaperclipPerfector  1d ago (text post)   3132 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of November 9, 2026

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Is the Fermi Paradox Debunked?

A new paper is out(https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404) concluding that the Drake equation is poorly designed and humans are most likely alone in the universe:

When we take account of realistic uncertainty, replacing point estimates by probability distributions that reflect current scientific understanding, we find no reason to be highly confident that the galaxy (or observable universe) contains other civilizations, and thus no longer find our observations in conflict with our prior probabilities. We found qualitatively similar results through two different methods: using the authors’ assessments of current scientific knowledge bearing on key parameters, and using the divergent estimates of these parameters in the astrobiology literature as a proxy for current scientific uncertainty.

When we update this prior in light of the Fermi observation, we find a substantial probability that we are alone in our galaxy, and perhaps even in our observable universe (53%–99.6% and 39%–85% respectively). ’Where are they?’ — probably extremely far away, and quite possibly beyond the cosmological horizon and forever unreachable.

TDLR the Drake equation is wrong by dramatically overrating the probability of other intelligent life. We are more likely to be alone than we thought, and my take on this has been for a while that if life was common we'd have experimentally demonstrated abiogenesis by now. But this in turn debunks the great filter arguments people(mainly liberals) make about all sorts of pet issues- the great filter is already behind us.

But this in turn debunks the great filter arguments people(mainly liberals) make about all sorts of pet issues-

I'm sure I'm not the first person to make this argument, but if the Great Filter is ahead of us, we're in deep trouble. It's not a problem that's going to be solved by cutting carbon emissions or pausing AI development for 6 months or implementing a worldwide North Korea style police state. It's something that's wiped out every last one of hundreds, thousands, or even millions of other intelligent species, including species which were well aware that they potentially faced a Great Filter.

Did you literally not read what he just said? Estimations that there should have been hundreds, thousands, or even millions of other intelligent species were probably way too high, which means that there is no need to invent some "great filter" to explain why they aren't there.

Did you literally not read what he just said?

No, I did not not read it. i.e. I read it. Are you saying I missed something important? I certainly misread things now and then so please feel free to point out.

Estimations that there should have been hundreds, thousands, or even millions of other intelligent species were probably way too high, which means that there is no need to invent some "great filter" to explain why they aren't there.

If by "great filter" you mean future great filter, then I tend to agree with you.

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