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naraburns  nihil supernum  1yr ago (text post)   2836 thread views

Friday Fun Thread for March 17, 2023

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A couple guys on Twitter have entered into a million dollar bet on whether the dollar will hyperinflate within 90 days.

This is a bitcoin publicity stunt, but anyway, what should you do if you really believed it. If he loses he’s out 1M of today's money. If he wins, in 26k. This is for an extremely unlikely event, so 1:1 odds would already be great for the counterparty. This is 40:1.

The market can provide better odds than this. Buy some June 16 550 spy calls for, let me check, one cent. If the dollar devalues by 40, spy will be worth 15500. Spy might lose some value, margin of safety and all that, let’s say 3000, and let’s add another 4 cents of transaction fees, why not. Gives odds of 0.05 (times 40 due to hyperinflation) to 2500 in his favour, that’s 1:1250 . Don't settle for a toyota when you could be a billlionaire.

If the dollar devalues by 40, spy will be worth 15500

Will it? Wouldn't people take all their money out of the US? Gold, BTC, ammunition, roubles and renminbi are the play IMO.

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