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I posted, but deleted this in response to a previous AI thread, but I think it actually aged better with Elon's signature to the letter yesterday and Yud's oped:
I am not a Musk fanboy, but I'll say this, Elon Musk very transparently cares about the survival of humanity as humanity, and it is deeply present down to a biological drive to reproduce his own genes. Musk openly worries about things like dropping birth rates, while also personally spotlighting his own rabbit-like reproductive efforts. Musk clearly is a guy who wants and expects his own genes to spread, last and thrive in future generations. This is a rising tides approach for humans Musk has also signaled clearly against unnatural life extensions.
“I certainly would like to maintain health for a longer period of time,” Musk told Insider. “But I am not afraid of dying. I think it would come as a relief.”
and
"Increasing quality of life for the aged is important, but increased lifespan, especially if cognitive impairment is not addressed, is not good for civilization."
Now, there is plenty, that I as a conservative, Christian, and Luddish would readily fault in Musk (e.g. his affairs and divorces). But from this perspective Musk certainly has large overlap with a traditionally "ordered" view of civilization and human flourishing.
Altman, on the other hand has no children, and as a gay man, never will have children inside of a traditional framework (yes I am aware many (all?) of Musks own children were IVF. I am no Musk fanboy).
I certainly hope this is just my bias showing, but I have greater fear for Altman types running the show than Musks because they are a few extra steps removed from stake in future civilization. We know that Musk wants to preserve humanity for his children and his grandchildren. Can we be sure that's anymore than an abstract good for Altman?
I'd rather put my faith in Musks own "selfish" genes at the cost of knowing most of my descendants will eventually be his too than in a bachelor, not driven by fecund sexual biology, doing cool tech.
Every child Musk pops out is more the tightly intermingled his genetic future is with the rest of humanity's.
In Yud's oped, which I frankly think contains a lot of hysteria, mixed among a few decent points, he says this:
I'm unclear whether this is Yud's bio-kid or a step kid, but the point ressonates with my perspective of Elon Musk. A few days ago SA indicated a similar thing about a hypothetical kid(?)
In either case, I don't know about AI x-risk. I am much more worried about 2cimerafa's economic collapse risk. But in both scenarios I am increasingly of a perspective that I'll cheekily describe as "You shouldn't get to have a decision on AI development unless you have young children". You don't have enough stake.
I have growing distrust of those of you without bio-children eager or indifferent to building a successor race or exhaulting yourself through immortal transhumanist fancies.
How much more of a stake in a future can anyone have than literally being an immortal transhumanist?
These are stakes in different futures for different people. Elon Musk has a perspective about human longevity that I am sympathetic to. When multiple groups of people have different future visions, each person is going to align to the leaders who most share their own.
Suppose three tech-billionaires all find a genie (it can be an AI genie if you want) who will grant them one only vision of the future of AI and humanity.
The first wants the fruits of humanity to reach the stars and survive trillions of years. The genie says the way for this to happen is for AI to succeed humanity, which may be destroyed in this process. The first finds this acceptable, echoing "I believe it should be regarded as a privilege to be a stepping stone to higher things". He believes these AI beings are our descendants and the future belongs to them.
The second wants a transhumanist future of long-lividness and maybe techno-immortality. The genie says that for this to happen, human reproduction will have to be bottlenecked to prevent Malthusian destruction. Un-exalted humanity will be culled and may die out as they will be of little use to the exalted, and represent a threat to their resources. The second finds this acceptable since has no need for descendants, as he will occupy their place.
The third isn't opposed to AI space explorers or transhumanist improvements but mostly wants his children and their children and theirs after to have the option to live their life in traditionally biological ways in peace and prosperity. He wants them to be able to form human families and create new generations. The genie says that this is doable but may altogether prevent or delay the opportunity for AI and transhumanists.
So all three futures are not necessarily incompatible, but only one gets to be prioritized. You can call all three of theirs "stake" in the future (though the first much less so), but you can see that each primary purpose comes at the expense of certainty of the other two.
DaeschIndustries and Chrispratt, seem stupified and angry at the idea that I might endorse the third guy, at the expense of the other two because this isn't dEmOcRaTic. I have my values and want to see them survive. Democracy is not a terminal value. Usually democracy is a great compromise, but on an existential scale, it can break down if your real values have an existential bottleneck.
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