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Notes -
Finally, concrete plan how to save the world from paperclipping dropped, presented by world (in)famous Basilisk Man himself.
https://twitter.com/RokoMijic/status/1647772106560552962
TL;DR: GPU's over certain capability are treated like fissionable materials, unauthorized possession, distribution and use will be seen as terrorism and dealt with appropriately.
So, is it feasible? Could it work?
If by "government" Roko means US government (plus
vassalsallies) alone, it is not possible.If US can get China aboard, if if there is worldwide expert consensus that unrestricted propagation of computing power will kill everyone, it is absolutely feasible to shut down 99,99% of unauthorized computing all over the world.
Unlike drugs or guns, GPU's are not something you can make in your basement - they are really like enriched uranium or plutonium in the sense you need massive industrial plants to produce them.
Unlike enriched uranium and plutonium, GPU's were already manufactured in huge numbers, but combination of carrots (big piles of cash) and sticks (missile strikes/special forces raids on suspicious locations) will continue dwindling them down and no new ones will be coming.
AI research will of course continue (like work on chemical and biological weapons goes on), but only by trustworthy government actors in the deepest secrecy. You can trust NSA (and Chinese equivalent) AI.
The most persecuted people of the world, gamers, will be, as usual, hit the hardest.
Most governments are far too stupid to do this effectively and they lack the creativity to even conceive of it as an option. Governments are run by boomers, they don't know how to do anything in a timely or efficient way. The US will just continue down the 'draft papers and think about imposing restrictions' path. Consider Jan or Feb 2020 - Western governments made noises about COVID. Experts gave opinions. We unironically thought we were well-prepared. All talk and no serious action up until March, when preparation time was well and truly over. Then they panicked and flailed around like headless chickens.
The Chinese are a rare exception - they've been accelerating their AI program and trying hard to escape US-imposed semiconductor restrictions. There are some leading voices calling for rapid acceleration of AGI work up to the level of 'Two bombs, One Satellite' (China's Maoist era nuclear and missile programs which got first priority throughout all the political nonsense they were dealing with): https://www.chinatalk.media/p/ai-proposals-at-two-sessions-agi
The racing dynamic is already locked in and the Chinese often cheat on treaty agreements with the US. Why would they work with the US sincerely, their primary competitor? Their experts are looking at AI like a goldmine, like high ground that needs to be occupied, a new frontier that has standards they want to set, a field they need to be sovereign in. The Chinese know that the US is trying to suppress them in this field, so there's a sense of desperation and determination to catch up.
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