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I am pretty firmly of the opinion that any post-scarcity society we can build looks less like UBI socialism and more like massive deflation in the pricing of essentials driven by automation and capital investments.
There are plenty of commodities that used to be expensive and are now basically free. Salt and pepper used to be valuable commodities, but now are tossed carelessly in paper packets into food packaging and largely discarded. Within the last century we've driven food prices down to where basically nobody in the West dies of starvation because they can't afford food: there are plenty of charities that together manage to make sure everyone is fed, although I'll concede the nutrition is often lacking.
But I also think the hedonic treadmill is a powerful thing and we can relatively easily convince ourselves that things haven't objectively changed: to me post-scarcity seems doomed to always look like the distant future, but is actually an asymptote we can steadily approach.
So…even if the price of goods drops massively, everyone still has to have some income to avoid starvation. Where does that come from? A transition to the ever-shrinking sector of jobs resisting automation? 40 hours a week of make-work?
The unconditional part of UBI has to be its least palatable feature. So long as some people still have to work, they will find it unfair. But I think the world of 40-hours-of-means-testing is a worse one than just cutting everyone loose. It’s a real coordination problem.
This wouldn't actually surprise me if it was pushed.
A long time ago in another life I was unemployed. To be entitled to unemployment benefits at my then age and ability, I was required to attend a 'work for the dole' program where myself and other ne'er-do-wells were required to do unskilled labour for about 20 hours per week. The work was in some cases beautifying public spaces as part of an incredibly lazy modern day press-gang, but I heard other 'workers' were assigned to various charities that had met the government's application requirements for the program.
The uses of the program seemed to be encouraging the lazy to at least try to contribute to society, avoiding the ire of actually hardworking taxpayers outraged at their tax dollars going to 'bludgers', and far down the list, actually giving some of the long-term unemployed skills and experience that could prove useful in the workforce. In practice it seemed to be a massive waste of time for all involved. Except perhaps the kabuki theater of placating taxpayers.
In a dystopian future I could absolutely see bullshit makework jobs used to keep the proles busy so they don't start plotting against their betters. 'Idle hands are the devil's workshop' and all that.
Edit: Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy Voice "There is another theory which states that this has already happened."
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The odds that we're ever going to reach a truly post-work future seem low. I think it's more likely that you'd see a) people working less, meaning that what quote unquote real work remains is spread across more people b) a (further) explosion in service jobs that previously would have been left to hobbyists. Being a HEMA coach or an MMO guild leader or 40k miniatures painter may not pay much, but when basically everything is too cheap to meter, 'not much' can actually pay for quite a lot.
(I will say, I think this is not quite around the corner as roboptimists think. Generative AI may detonate some professions, but I'm more skeptical of it quickly solving the problem of material abundance. I guess I should probably look into retraining as an electrician).
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Not that I think it’s the most likely outcome, but I wouldn’t rule out some form of neo-feudalism where the peasants take turns providing “personal services” to the local Microsoft shareholder in exchange for nutrient paste and Experience Machine tokens.
Do we really think the M$ shareholder is more likely to be motivated by an experience they could get in their own experience machine over charity to any large degree? How much money do Americans send over seas to people who cannot possibly return and kind of favor despite resources being far more scarce then they'd be in this world? I don't know, I think there is some chance somethign catastrophic happens and one psycho subjugates us all or turns us into computonium, but if's it just a matter of getting some normal dude with M$ stock to throw a pittance to you then this seems far too pessimistic a take.
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