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Culture War Roundup for the week of May 8, 2023

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aaaaah, conflating "Roko's Basilisk" with unfriendly AI in general? That makes more sense.

Well, it adds the important dimension of unfriendly AI being spiteful and making a friend-enemy distinction. Actually, let's just scratch the whole alignment part and say Conjecture or Anthropic announce that, should they build a God-like AI, they'll go after people who tried to get in their way and torture them, while rewarding allies with extra share of the light cone. If they were very close to success, this would've been straightforwardly persuasive.

Well, it adds the important dimension of unfriendly AI being spiteful and making a friend-enemy distinction.

But "Skynet, with a vengeance" isn't going to send anyone into existential despair. The dilemma is no different than weighing whether you should fight or surrender when faced with an invasion by another country.

Calling it spiteful is anthropomorphizing a bit too much. The more robustly you punish defection in all forms the more likely it is that other rational agents will cooperate with you. If "logical decision theory" is a strong enough attractor basin (which I doubt, but I suppose it's possible) then an "unaligned" AI may spontaneously cooperate with agents who made decisions that helped create it, defect against agents who did not help create it, and strongly defect against (punish) agents who made decisions that actively hindered it's creation.

Not anthropomorphizing at all. This is straight up spiteful behavior, irrational waste of resources. As I've explained, the Basilisk AI has no incentive to do good on the threat, and thus cannot credibly precommit to it. It certainly benefits from us being convinced, but it's easier to have people believe something than to prove it true. In short, this is pretty uncertain because AIs needn't be fully rational decision makers (and indeed, human-mimics will not be), but I don't buy that timeless/logical decision theory is some sort of big brain invention that minds converge to.