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Notes -
International Updates
I think this forum often shines when people talk about foreign affairs or give updates from their own countries, so - in the same spirit as calling for regular coverage and analysis of the Hill - I’d like to try and start a tradition of brief weekly updates on big happenings from around the world. I’m not an expert on most places and will definitely not be able to get everything. People should feel free to spin off of anything they find interesting, to add onto this with coverage of other places that were missed, or to post their own. Unintentionally, this week’s theme is elections and struggles for national power.
Ecuador
In a process with shades of Peru’s ongoing crisis, Ecuador’s President Guillermo Lasso recently dissolved the National Assembly following their failed attempt to impeach him for (allegedly) mishandling a deal involving the state oil company. This means Lasso is now ruling by decree. Difference being, this seems to be actually allowed under the Ecuadorian constitution; it’s currently being challenged in court but it doesn’t seem like anyone thinks it will be successful. He can govern like this for up to six months, but yesterday announced there will be an election in August, which he is allowed to run in (though he hasn’t announced if he will). In the meantime, he seems to be making the most of his interim by cutting taxes and creating special economic zones to attract foreign investment.
Chile
Right wing parties won a majority in the legislative assembly in Sunday's election, largely due to a deteriorating economy, significant internal instability, and President Gabriel Boric’s failure to make headway on campaign commitments. You probably remember the kerfuffle last year about reforming Chile’s constitution. The current constitution is inherited from the Pinochet dictatorship and there’s large agreement (80%) it should be replaced, but little in the way of common vision for what should replace it. Last year President Boric attempted to pass a more left wing constitution with some built in idpol elements like gender equality and greater indigenous rights, but it failed to pass a referendum, with 62% in opposition. The incoming current right wing coalition is actually led by Boric’s opposition candidate from the last election, Antonio Kast, and they will now have their own shot to pass a new constitution.
Turkey
The Turkish election is scheduled this Sunday for the run off between Erdogan and opposition candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu. The matchup is a little reminiscent of Hungary, in that six opposition parties have teamed together in a longshot, big-tent coalition to unseat an increasingly entrenched strongman, and also in that they are likely to fail. Despite sky high inflation and the recent tragic earthquakes, Erdogan is favored to win, which would continue his streak in power from 2003. BBC reports that Kilicdaroglu is in a bit of a political pinch in that he needs to court both nationalist and Kurdish parties, which have some incompatible interests (ie, the former wants a harder crackdown on perceived or real Kurdish militantism). Even if he wins the presidency, Erdogan’s AKP and allied MHP have a parliamentary majority, so there’s probably not a ton a new president can change.
El Salvador
In a similar vein, El Salvadoran civil society groups have also formed a big tent coalition with four right- and left-wing opposition parties, including President Bukele's former party FMLN, to mount a unified attempt to unseat the increasingly autocratic leader in next year's election.
Sudan
The US and Saudi Arabia recently negotiated a seven day ceasefire between the Army and the RSF paramilitary in Sudan. Ideally, the ceasefire should give a little time to distribute humanitarian aid, though reportedly bombings have continued in the capital of Khartoum and the nearby cities of Omdurman and Bahri. Over a million people have been displaced so far, with the Red Cross warning it will be incredibly hard to house and provide for the 80,000+ refugees in Chad after the rainy season begins.
Thailand
Thailand’s election on the 14th has been covered as a major upset, with junta-backed Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha only receiving 7% of the vote, and voters overwhelmingly trending towards the anti-monarhcical and anti-military opposition parties, Move Forward and to a lesser extent Pheu Thai. There is a limited extent to how much this matters because since the military coup in 2014 the armed services control one third of the seats in parliament, unelected, and any opposition faces a steep uphill battle to get the 376 votes needed to unseat the PM. Even if they did surmount this threshold, the military can just do another coup whenever; “Thailand has averaged one coup every seven years since 1932 . . . nine years have passed since the last one, so a coup is now overdue.” Still, it speaks to significant discontent with the monarchy-military rule (the previous king was fairly popular, his 2016 successor Vajiralongkorn - say that five times fast - much less so, and the “lèse majesté laws” punishing any criticisms of him have become a sore point).
Iran
Ayatollah Khamenei is 84 and has been battling illness off and on for the past few years, so soon his succession will be an unavoidable issue. Foreign Affairs reports that while the process for this is a well established vote by the “Assembly of Experts,” there is significant disagreement within the assembly and the different elite factions they represent, with interlocking alliances and power politics far more complicated than Iran’s broader Assembly (over 120 elite “parties” vs basically 2 relevant national parties: the moderates and conservatives). If the chaos of the last transition from Iran’s foundational leader is any guide, the upcoming one will be extremely fraught as well, which is a recipe for instability when coupled with Iran’s significant public discontent from the government’s ruthless suppression of the last year of protests.
At this point I am wondering if there is any example of a broad coalition winning against a single popular strongman leader in two way elections. Watching this stuff from the inside has been very instructive. When you get 6+ (there are a lot more parties in support who aren’t in coalition formally) very different parties in a coalition it just degenerates to the most stupid base discourse. At this point Erdogan looks like a significantly more sane and reliable candidate than supposedly peaceful Western oriented Kılıçdaroğlu
I’ve been wondering that as well actually, there must be an instance of it working somewhere, but it seems like the kind of thing doomed to fail. In El Salvador in particular, I’m not sure what parties that have been long time bitter rivals are going to agree on in a coalition. The article I read said they’re going to unify under a civil society-approved “human rights candidate,” but it’s not like either of those parties were all that great on human rights either.
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Israel managed to briefly unseat Netanyahu that way.
True but almost feels like the exception that proves the rule
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Good example, though I guess it also demonstrates how hard it is to hold onto power with those kind of coalitions.
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