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PaperclipPerfector  1yr ago (text post)   33834 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of June 19, 2023

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news from ukraine: the leader of wagner group has accused the russian military of bombing his forces. seems to be preparing some kind of coup special military operation. russian generals are asking mercenaries not to join in. prigozhin has vocally criticized russian military leaders recently, but this is a massive escalation. could we see a civil war break out in the middle of this war?

update: prigozhin claims that he has entered rostov without resistance. lots of unverified videos on twitter of wagner/russian convoy movements, and some combat footage; wagner claims to have shot down a russian helicopter.

video of supposedly wagner soldiers and tanks surrounding the MoD building in rostov.

Anatoly Karlin:

The dynamics between Putin, Prigozhin, and Shoigu/Gerasimov make zero military sense.

But they make a great deal of sense from the perspective of regime preservation.

This is now the most logical frame through which to analyze the Ukraine War IMO.

I now think this is the likeliest scenario.

Putin wants to wind down the war, Shoigu/Gerasimov to be the scapegoats for Russia's territorial losses, and Wagnerites the enforcers against the Z extremists who don't get the memo in time.

Though he seems to be considering it more straightforwardly 3h later (not necessarily at odds with above)

Does he have an account here? @akarlin

RWA:

Option 1: It's a PsyOp to cover up a serious Russian offensive

Option 2: We're going to WW3 with NATO

Option 3: It's real & Putin is using Prigozhin to get rid of Shoigu

Option 4: It's real & Wagner has actually begun a coup d'etat

Option 5: It's behind-the-curtain negotiations & gets nipped in the bud before it escalates

Though of course this is only the dregs of pro-Russian commentary that makes it into english.

Even if that is the plan, I don't see a way it could play out that nicely. Putin and Prigozhin release a carefully rehearsed set of statements, and then what? Surely a Russian would think to ask "How many divisions does Shoigu have?"

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