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PaperclipPerfector  10mo ago (text post)   33049 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of June 19, 2023

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news from ukraine: the leader of wagner group has accused the russian military of bombing his forces. seems to be preparing some kind of coup special military operation. russian generals are asking mercenaries not to join in. prigozhin has vocally criticized russian military leaders recently, but this is a massive escalation. could we see a civil war break out in the middle of this war?

update: prigozhin claims that he has entered rostov without resistance. lots of unverified videos on twitter of wagner/russian convoy movements, and some combat footage; wagner claims to have shot down a russian helicopter.

video of supposedly wagner soldiers and tanks surrounding the MoD building in rostov.

It appears that Prigozhin and Putin have negotiated a "oopsie doopsie, it's all been just a big misunderstanding."

https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-06-24-23/index.html

An absurd end to an absurd coup. Prigozhin can't be long for this world.

Remarkable lack of conviction - if you cross the Rubicon, you have to enter Rome. Unless this was prearranged for some inscrutable 15D chess reasons, and probably even then, Putin has to have Prigozhin killed.

Then again, no one said Prigozhin was a genius. Maybe he just doesn't realize the gravity of the situation.

There's no way this is a stable arrangement. You can't get this close to successfully doing a coup and just go back to things as before. Putin can't let Pirghozin keep his power base, and Pirghozin has to know he's a dead man if he loses his power base. Why Pirghozin would take that deal is bizarre, maybe rank & file Wagner didn't want to go through with it?

Supposedly they're even leaving Rostov and going back to Ukraine? This is insane.

Apparently the deal is Prigozhin and the Wagner Group get redeployed to Africa indefinitely, and in exchange Putin replaces the top brass at the MOD?

I don't see why either of them would agree to this. It makes obvious that Putin is incredibly impotent.

I don't know why Pirghozin would take his army to a different continent where they'll be dependent on Russia's navy and airforce for logistics. He has no leverage there and no guarantee of safety.

Because he gets to wear short shorts and bushwhack and keep extracting incredible amounts of money from the goldmines and other such Wagner holds instead of getting his special boys shot up in hill 60 2: electric boogaloo.

There is no guarantee of safety anywhere, but they wouldn't be dependent on Russia's navy or airforce for logistics. Wagner in Africa wouldn't exactly be in high-tempo combat operations needing such a train, there are no logistics trains in Africa, and the Wagner model in Africa is to work through local actors, supporting them in exchange for resource rights (such as mines), which would be a more independent revenue source than MOD.

Prediction time! Prigozhin is almost certain to lose. He has some collaborators in the RuAF but almost certainly not enough to make the coup seem inevitable. This is important, since coups basically only succeed if they seem inevitable within a few days at most. Coups need to act fast, neutralize the old leader as quickly as possible, and take over radio/TV stations to get people to acquiesce. Wagner's main body of forces were >1000km from Moscow in Rostov, Putin has had a full day to prepare and evacuate, and Prigozhin has not seized communication lines to make the effort seem inevitable. Perhaps that might be because it started out as more of a "mutiny" than a "coup", but there's no putting the toothpaste back in the tube now.

The upper brass at the MoD will remain steadfastly loyal to Putin. Junior and mid-level officers might waver a bit at first, but once it becomes clear that Prigozhin doesn't have everything tied up in a neat little bow he'll be hard pressed to get them to join his side outright. Prediction markets show a ~70% chance for Putin to come out on top, which is quite low for how this has progressed so far. This entire thing feels quite reminiscent of the Turkish coup against Erdogan. It feels like something forced Prigozhin's hand and he had to act early. He obviously would have preferred not to have his forces 1000km from the capital when it started.

The end result will likely be more (justifiable) paranoia from Putin, and for Russia to sink into an even more totalitarian state. I doubt there will be appreciable first-order impacts for Ukraine, although who knows what could happen down the road. Anything from Putin deciding to pull out of Ukraine to focus on retaining power, to Putin going all-in and doing something nuclear due to feeling like the West put him in this no-win position. But both of those extremes are pretty unlikely, and the most probable course of action is... nothing much.

Wagner forces were seen entering Moscow Oblast a few hours ago. I think Pirghozin understands he has to win quickly and is rushing Moscow and betting that they can't coordinate a serious defense fast enough. I don't think either side is trying to mobilize the people to get in the streets like Erdogan did in Turkey. The public is assumed to be bystanders, the audience for communications is the other military commanders, everything will hinge on whether Pirghovin has support from any other factions of the millitary. Rosgvardia vehicles were seen with Wagner vehicles if Rostov but it's unclear if they were seized or collaborating.

I agree that the odds of the coup succeeding are small but the coup hasn't stalled yet.

The single biggest factor at this point for any defense of Moscow is likely the Moscow mayor-equivallent. Major metropolitan mayors have substantial influence over not only lower security forces, who are key enablers for the state-level agencies under government control, but the sort of agencies that provide disproportionate enabling support.

Look to see if garbage trucks and school buses are called up and used as barricades, or if the government clerks totally unremoved from fighting start filling sandbags as labor.

Irresponsible speculation, questions, and thoughts from someone with zero qualifications:

-- I got a lot of pushback from people on this board who tend Pro-Russia along the lines of "staying in place in the capital when invaded is the absolute bare minimum that anyone would do, especially if the invasion doesn't have a good chance of success." Well, here we are. I don't know if this is a strong/weak/nonexistent signal of how things are going, but it appears to have happened.

-- Assuming Prigozhin loses, which seems most likely?, what will the consequences be to those involved? Will Wagnerites be crucified along the highway from Moscow to Rostov? Will soldiers and officials who collaborated be punished? Will soldiers who allowed them to pass be punished? Will soldiers who failed to confront Wagner energetically enough be punished? We have yet to see serious armed confrontation from what I can tell, and rumors abound that in Rostov aircraft are allowed to fly missions into Ukraine only with a Wagnerite aboard to keep an eye on everyone, one can assume that other aspects of the Russian army are being run with Wagner commissars the same way? Will those soldiers be punished for continuing to do their jobs?

-- Equally, would there be any credible threat of consequences against those who work too energetically against Wagner at the local level? I'm reading Garcia-Marquez' News of a Kidnapping right now, and one aspect of Columbian society that kept the Narcos in business for so long was local authorities knowing that even if their actions lead to a successful prosecution against the

gang leader, the witness had good odds of getting killed by one or another gang in retaliation. If national guard and police units are scared of the consequences from Wagner or allies, and hesitate, that could give the gap needed. See also the other book I'm reading: Europe's Tragedy, covering how the lack of faith in ultimate victory by local elites tended to lead to manifold incidents of Bet-Hedging that paralyzed the state's ability to win a total victory.

-- Regardless of outcome, how long can this be sustained while also putting up sufficient resistance on the Ukrainian front? It has to start fucking with logistics within a week, right? Morale? Will this present a significant problem if this lasts two weeks?

-- What international prestige cost does this carry for Russia?

-- I'm getting the feeling that I should stockpile canned goods. The NAFO asshats are cheering this on, but unpredictable events are unpredictable.

-- I pray for peace, in whatever form it takes.

ETA: Didn't see this one coming.

As of writing this post, Wagner appears to be in control of Rostov and Voronezh, and en route to Moscow.

Prigozhin is playing the game of thrones, and he's going to win or he's going to die. The path to victory for him looks pretty much like he walks into Moscow and all the people with guns get out of the way and let him do what he wants. It's... optimistic but not completely impossible, given the lack of resistance he's encountered so far.

If that doesn't happen and he actually gets meaningfully challenged it's difficult to see an outcome where he survives the coming week. Wagner is more competent than the regular Russian army but also much smaller and if this turns into an actual civil war he surely gets crushed. One way or another, I expect we'll see a clear winner and a clear loser before very long.

Prigozhin is playing the game of thrones, and he's going to win or he's going to die.

Or go to Belarus.

I admit this wasn't at all how I expected the situation to play out, but even so I think there's still a pretty high likelihood that Prigozhin ends up dead.

Valar morghulis, I guess.

Wagner is more competent than the regular Russian army but also much smaller and if this turns into an actual civil war he surely gets crushed.

By whom, though?

At this point, this isn't Wagner vs the Russian Army- because the Russian army is literally in, and committed to, Ukraine, in the 90+% range even as the Ukrainian counterattack is (still) a very real thing. (The recent pause was not a culmination, and the majority of collected Ukrainian assets were never committed.) It's not like there's a massive third army behind the Urals waiting to move against someone moving within Russia.

Moreover, the Russian Army is capital-U unreliable at this point, at least from an anti-coup perspective. The rivalries between Wagner and the MOD are at the leader level- but Prigozhin is far more popular than Shugoi, and we have visible evidence of entire military centers letting Wagner not only pass through unopposed, but take over Russian military and government institutional facilities. They are, at best, apathetic, not unquestionably loyal.

The answer is, of course, the various internal security forces... but these are largely local, and tend not to have the things like armor and artillery and coordinated airpower. With the armor and artillery, well, committed, you're looking more at the equivalent of American SWAT teams trying to learn to call in the air force.

None of this means that Wagner won't fail/is impossible to win, but this isn't likely to have a crushing overmatch with a climatic battle, because there's no unified conventional force to wage that climatic battle due to local availability and trust that they wouldn't just join Wanger.

What this is likely to look like is a militia-vs-militia-level fighting, which the Russian Security Forces will likely win in the defense, but a counter-attack will be extremely problematic in the inverse. The power- and assets- have to come from somewhere, and it's not readily apparent whom and from where.

They made it within 150 miles of Moscow, so it seems it was pretty damn practical after all.

What's impractical about driving down a highway? It takes hours and hours, but this insurrection started hours and hours ago.

More to the point, it seems clear to me that Wagner had two seperate groups go to Voronezh and Rostov. The capture of Voronezh happened way too soon after Rostov for it to be the same soldiers.

The Rostov group - which apparently includes Prigozhin himself - is very far from Moscow (although it's still not clear that anyone would be able/willing to intercept them in time - the bulk of the Russian army is also a long way from Moscow). But more pressingly, the Voronezh group seems to be heading straight for Moscow and at the time of writing I'm seeing a bunch of Twitter reports that they're in Moscow Oblast now and are maybe 2 hours away from Moscow city.

Putin does appear to have sent airstrikes to attempt to stop Wagner - it's not clear to me to what extent they have been successful.

Well it seems better for people there to let them go to moscow instead of stopping them and having them come at you. Civilians are not equipped to fight soldiers

Admittedly, I was assuming that, even absent military action, Moscow would have local authorities do things like "take a few dozen city buses/dump trucks, park them across major bridges/viaducts, and disable them", and so on.

They did do that.

there is already a convoy in lipetsk heading north, ~320 km from moscow.

It appears that Wagner is utilising the strategy that the Taliban used to rapidly conquer Afghanistan following the US withdrawal. That is, just brazenly walk in and have everyone lay down their arms and/or join you. It doesn't appear they needed to fire a single shot to take either of Rostov or Voronezh.

Does that tactic keep working all the way to Moscow? We'll see.

There have been some attempts to set up road blocks - some dump trucks filled with sand parked across the highway in some places, and I've seen video of excavators digging out sections of road in others. So far, they do not appear to have caused much delay.

It's possible that Putin's men blow the bridge across the Oka river. If they do, that might present a more serious speed bump.

I cannot predict what will happen but Prigozhin is trying to convince people to join his side by appealing to their grievances.

No one could convince Russians to protest the war. They are all united in their struggle for Russian supremacy. When the military incursion towards Kyiv started, Russians on social media cheered. But they also expressed that 300 casualties was a very high price. Little they knew that soon it would be 3000, then 30 thousand and 300 thousand is not so far away and still losing.

Prigozhin manipulated those sentiments by saying that he is not against Putin but against the corrupted generals who are to blame for this loss. Russians like to talk how bad is their corruption, how the government doesn't care about them at all etc. They might or might not see Prigozhin as their saviour but he has certainly changed the situation irreversibly and the narrative that the current leadership is not competent is not going to go away until something big happens.

Agreed, the only way you pull a coup like this off is if the state essentially crumbles into dust, senior decision makers immediately lose authority, flee or are killed, and then whoever’s left shrugs and accepts the new boss.

As of now there don’t seem to be many likely reports of mass defections in the military or large numbers of elites coming out against Putin. Private jet activity shows rich people fleeing, but that’s expected. The logistics of a Wagner assault on Moscow remain fantastical, at least for now.

At the same time, Putin has no real ideological program and the military is demoralized and has dealt with heavy losses. Prigozhin’s government wouldn’t necessarily not be amenable to a lot of people in Moscow. Stranger things have arguably happened in [Russian] history than a Wagner coup, but I still think Prigozhin defenestrating Putin directly is unlikely, although the incident will damage him even if he hangs on.

Wagner has no chance of doing anything. Russian MoD can easily crush them. Putin used Wagner to avoid mass mobilisation early on but this strategy has now backfired. He also likes playing all sides against each other to keep them on their toes. This includes his own generals.

Prigozhin simply didn't understand he was just a chess piece in a greater game, he thought he was an actual leader. He will learn very shortly who is the real boss. Ultimately he isn't a threat, but this entire situation was allowed to develop because of Putin's inability to call a war what it needs to be called: a war, rather than his SMO bullshit. He should never have allowed these militias to proliferate and should have called up a much bigger mobilisation drive to begin with. But that's water under the bridge. Wagner as a group is now a spent force in Russia. They could survive as mercs in MENA/Africa, going back to their original, smaller roots.

That Wagner is unlikely to succeed in a coup is not the same thing as not producing any consequences (doing anything). The threat of Prigozhin's rebellion isn't in the likely doomed attempt- it's in the second and third order effects of the purges to follow not just against Wagner, but Wagner's allies, and the apathetic sorts of bystanders who didn't oppose them with fervency.

Prigozhin and Wagner aren't politically significant in the sense that 'Prigozhin thought he was a real boss.' Prigozhin is well aware, hence why he went on his antics for publicity, and targetting his feud of the MOD bosses, and the instigation event being Shugoi's alleged attempts to both administratively dismantle Wagner's independence (Soldier contract demands) and potential bombing. Prigozhin likely isn't under delusions that he's 'a real boss'- he's likely under very clear understanding that he was targetted and doomed, and is deciding to go down fighting.

Prigozhin and Wagner are politically significant in that they are representative/rallying points for a key contingent of what you might call 'the non-state nationalism.' Wagner is... I hate to use vague terms live 'Avatar' or 'totem,' but symbollic of the idea of a Russian strength that's not simply the state. Signalling support for Wagner was a way to show your support for Russia as a good nationalist even if you opposed/detested/thought Shugoi and the MOD were incompetent/wrong/ruinous. Being pro-Wagner was a form of acceptable criticism of the regime by people who were fellow travelers. It was a nexus through which anti-Shugoi factions could persist and loosely coordinate.

When Shugoi wins- and I agree that he's likely to win this- he is not going to stop at just Wagner leaders. He's going to go after their allies, which includes not only other disaffected oligarchs (it's own risk to the system if/when a class of greedy opportunists opportunistically move against eachother to take eachother's stuff), but their support networks as well, which includes their media/social presence spheres. And in that, what was previously swarths of officially tolerated opinions- and criticisms- will no longer be tolerated, but officially suppressible.

What this will mean is up for debate, but the reason Wagner was a totem of alternative nationalists was that they didn't want to support the existing national symbol of strength- the MOD-military- in the first place. Removing the alternative doesn't mean people will transfer their favor to the persons/institutions that did so... and is likely to be suppressing them either actively or with open suspicion. Dismantling parts of the oligarchy doesn't mean that only the traitorous parts are subject to being targetted- or that only the traitors will resist and fly back.

This is an event that, even in failure, will change how the war-supporting base view the government fighting the war, and how the oligarchs move against eachother. Either would be significant on their own, and this is before Putin's typical insecurities drive further responses against either group.

it's in the second and third order effects of the purges to follow not just against Wagner, but Wagner's allies, and the apathetic sorts of bystanders who didn't oppose them with fervency.

And there's likely no significance in any of that. That's the nature, the main modus operandi of russian elites. You may see some bones fly out from beneath the rug and it'll be obvious who won, as Churchill was saying. As long as Putin is left standing, and there's very little doubt that he will, nothing will change strategically. There's enough people who want to be a bit richer so it's not hard to replace couple of not-loyal enough oligarchs. Although there's always some chance for something...

Either would be significant on their own

No. I would say Prig's actions will have either large immediate consequences (days) or very little consequences otherwise. Some internal oligarchy power play is irrelevant.

No. I would say Prig's actions will have either large immediate consequences (days) or very little consequences otherwise. Some internal oligarchy power play is irrelevant.

Yes. Oligarchy power plays are only irrelevant when the oligarchy is irrelevant- but in Russia, these oligarchs and their support networks have been very, very relevant in shaping Russian security policy and how Russia engages with the war both politically and socially. How the oligarchy reshuffles in the course of the Ukrainian war is one of the most significant impacts of the Ukrainian war since it became clear the Russians wouldn't win a conventional military victory.

The sanctioned purging of the hypernationalist / Wagnerite spectrum is not only a narrowing of Putin's own support base, it shapes the dynamic of what public support there is for the war and what peace terms are acceptable by neutering one of the only supportive (and most hardline) segments of Russian society, it shapes the foreign policy priorities of the security establishment, and critically it shapes the potential post-Ukraine and even post-Putin power dynamics.

To pick just one example: despite hiccups, Wagner and the Chechans were relative allies against the MOD, despite their own differences and issues. While Kadyrov would/did/has absolutely prioritize personal loyalty to Putin above any desire to join his ally in mutiny, in different circumstances (i.e. Putin had a heart attack), Kadyrov and Prigozhin could easily have been allies-of-convenience in shaping a post-Putin environment, with dynamics such as advancing eachother's autonomy and devolving Russia to a more warlord-style state. When Wagners' brothers-in-anti-MOD-autonomy are purged, Kadyrov will be isolated- weakening his position- and Shugoi will use the Wagner example as grounds to consolidate MOD control (and expand his own patronage/influence network) over other semi-autonomous oligarch mercenary groups. Such a challenge and change to potential trajectories is the epitome of a relevant consequence.

So, how's the consequences?

Last paragraph seems to have hit the nail on the head as far as predictions go, for just one example.

I'm sure of it. You really need to appreciate the fine art of westerners to sell their word piss as diamonds.

You really did a multi-month necro just to get a last word and block, huh? That is sincerely amusing, thanks for making a good morning.

I don't care, sorry.

  • -22

Then don't post.

Why do you assume that MoD is in any position to fight? That soldiers will shoot at all?

I think the mutiny will fail, but mostly for boring logistical reasons and because their actual targets are guarded by the FSO, as again Galeev notes (that said, the role of FSO is obvious to anyone who's looked even once at the makeup of Russian internal forces). It's far from obvious that most of the regular army will even bother engaging them. Prig's reputation is far higher than anyone's in there, esprit de corps in the Russian army is non-existent (by design), and frankly they would rather pass the buck to the next regiment. The whole army is dysfunctional, no matter what Twitter guys say about offensive, counteroffensive or whatever.

We'll see if he's negotiated this with Kadyrov soon.

I think the mutiny will fail, but mostly for boring logistical reasons and because their actual targets are guarded by the FSO, as again Galeev notes (that said, the role of FSO is obvious to anyone who's looked even once at the makeup of Russian internal forces). It's far from obvious that most of the regular army will even bother engaging them.

Even if his allegedly 25k-strong PMC can reach Moscow in full strength without leaving 10k as a rear guard, that's not enough to take a city the size of Moscow (or cross the Oka) even if everyone except the FSO decides to sit the fight out.

If Prigožin's not just fatally off his meds, then I can think of a couple of explanations for why he would try something like that

  • he thinks he has allies he can rely on to flip the balance, perhaps:

    • Dyumin, who has ties in both the military and the FSO and is the governor of Tula on the other side of the Oka

    • someone in Tamanskaja or Kantemirovskaja divisions

    • Kuznecov or even Zolotov

  • he has no plans to go far, just to carve out his own demesne in the south the size of Denikin's

  • he's just desperate because he knew his days were numbered so he went all in

Even if his allegedly 25k-strong PMC can reach Moscow in full strength without leaving 10k as a rear guard, that's not enough to take a city the size of Moscow (or cross the Oka) even if everyone except the FSO decides to sit the fight out.

It doesn't really need to take a city the size of Moscow to work, however. It just needs to take the government- but especially MOD- infrastructure. That wouldn't be enough in a society with high social cohesion- but the Russian state is, deliberately, much more fragile for a lack of popular investment. In lack of that civic society resilience where the state infrastructure is not the institution, Moscow may be a city of 12 million requiring divisions to siege, but the parts that 'matter' are only a fraction of the size, especially if few people actually try to stop you.

And here your question of 'thinks he has allies' could be reframed as 'who else might be behind Wagner's effort.' We discuss this like Prigozin is acting on his own- but Wagner has always been an extension of certain parts of the security state. If Prigozin is not the actor, but the agent, then he may not be so opposed- or have allies in waiting- when he arrives.

I've no personal investment in this point- I think personal interest is enough and let Occam's Razor hold the rest- but given how the Russian state seems to have been surprised by this, 'why didn't the people watching Wagner notice this' could easily be answered by- or suspected to be- 'because the people watching them were in on it.'

FSO

What if FSO is dysfunctional and not good at fighting either ?

It's pretty odd that the whole of Prigozhin's attempt hasn't been yet been curtailed by airstrikes.

Mainstream media is picking it up: CNN, Telegraph, Washington Post. Even Russia Today has an article!

Oh baby, it's on!

Civil war in the middle of a (self-inflicted) world war is not exactly new for Russia.

There's nothing complicated about it, Kremlinology in Karlin's manner is obsolete. The regime is absolutely dysfunctional, flailing about with room temperature IQ reactions, there are no longer any Mnogokhodovochkas and Maskirovkas, and Prigozhin is straightforwardly a warlord (with vague Imperial sympathies) who's trying to avoid getting deep-fried like early LDNR leaders who were deemed a threat by Kremlin. This kill-your-military-heroes pattern is a staple of the Russian state and its dickless-but-psychopathic apparatchik leadership over the last century, so he has no way out but up. It very likely won't work, but it very likely heralds the final episode of our very special military operation: you can't very well fight the Ukrainian counteroffensive at the same time as you eliminate your most infamous and highest-morale military company by far.

Like a hour ago I paused the rewatch of Wings of Honneamise to see Russian state TV announce live the charging of Prigozhin with armed insurgency attempt (вооружённый мятеж), yada yada mercs don't support him in this urgent moment of our struggle against pro-fascist Ukrainians. Minutes later Prig said his forces are entering Rostov. There are some noises from the headquarters of the Ministry of Defense in Moscow; probably nothing. Putin has congratulated Russians with the Day of Youth or whatever it's called. Russia, unlike Prigozhin, doesn't have any way out of this.

The details of the forthcoming decay can feed morbid curiosity of idle observers but don't matter more than, e.g., LeCun-Bengio debate on AI safety the other day so I won't follow it too closely.

As an aside, I cannot express in words my sheer contempt for everyone who's been denying the utter degeneracy of Russian power structure over the last 1.5 years, especially for people who accused me of «defeatism» and «selling out» and stanned muh based Putin The Savior of White Race from (I presume) the comfort and safety of their Western McMansions. You folks deserve whatever the GAE has in store for you.

You folks deserve whatever the GAE has in store for you.

I understand why you feel this way, but we really don't want people expressing sentiments like this, because once people are trading dire threats/predictions/hopes for violent retribution, there is nowhere good for the conversation to go.

I'm kind of surprised this is your reaction, since in the past you've been predicting (one might even say "hoping for") Putin's death at the start of the war. This is by far the closest its come to fruition. I mean, the coup is overwhelmingly likely to fail and Putin will remain in power, but still.

Putin's death will no doubt be one of the few things that make me truly happy. Nevertheless, I still have some family in Moscow, and it becoming a battlefield or, hypothetically, coming under Wagner military rule (can you imagine how it goes given Prig's priorities and background?) will be quite horrible (not to mention I would rather not see the city itself harmed, much as that'd entertain Ukrainians and NAFO dogs).

Coup-like events in Russia are associated with the death of Paul I, who got hit in the head with snuffbox and succeeded by his son Alexander I. Now I wouldn't like the regime to just go on and Putin to be succeeded by… Dyomin, I guess? But there is no way this shitshow kills him anywhere so cleanly.

My preferred fantasy scenario is not worth discussing at this point.

Anatoly Karlin:

The dynamics between Putin, Prigozhin, and Shoigu/Gerasimov make zero military sense.

But they make a great deal of sense from the perspective of regime preservation.

This is now the most logical frame through which to analyze the Ukraine War IMO.

I now think this is the likeliest scenario.

Putin wants to wind down the war, Shoigu/Gerasimov to be the scapegoats for Russia's territorial losses, and Wagnerites the enforcers against the Z extremists who don't get the memo in time.

Though he seems to be considering it more straightforwardly 3h later (not necessarily at odds with above)

Does he have an account here? @akarlin

RWA:

Option 1: It's a PsyOp to cover up a serious Russian offensive

Option 2: We're going to WW3 with NATO

Option 3: It's real & Putin is using Prigozhin to get rid of Shoigu

Option 4: It's real & Wagner has actually begun a coup d'etat

Option 5: It's behind-the-curtain negotiations & gets nipped in the bud before it escalates

Though of course this is only the dregs of pro-Russian commentary that makes it into english.

Yes that's me. I don't participate actively.

Maybe I'm just burnt out on 4d chess takes after the Trump era, but I feel like it's real, even as someone that is entirely anti-nato to the point I would turncoat in a second if i had a chance to damage the alliance. Prigozhin actually reminds me of Trump after following the war the last year. Issues with emotional regulation that border on mental illness, or maybe drug issues, or both. Something goes well and he's singing everyones praises, something doesn't go well and he jumps on telegram and calls everyone names and goes on a rant.

Seemed like earlier in the war he banked on the successes of Wagner relative to the rest of the Russia military and Shoigu who fucked up the initial invasion and took forever to reorient. Used his successes in Bakhmut as currency to keep himself afloat after his outbursts and tirades.

Then going into the Ukrainian Counteroffensive he seemed to be banking on continued Russian failures to keep him untouchable but when they didn't materialize and even western sources started to comment that Russia is starting to adapt and get the rust off he's now found himself in a corner. All the insubordinate outbursts were remembered but now he is losing his pull due to the regular Russian military finally (sorta) getting it's shit together.

Think it could be real and he is just that desperate. Seems more straightforward than all the other theories, Occam and what not.

The question is why he's so desperate, such that this seemed like his best option. Maybe his rivals at the MoD had discovered something that was the end of his career either way?

I'm hardly an expert on Russian internal politics, but this seems a case like several in history: Prigozhin likely believes he cannot escape defenestration (on account of previous comments and a lack of clear battlefield utility to the Kremlin) if he yields, so why not take a likely-unsuccessful stand? A Chinese uprising in 209BC occurred when two officers realized that the penalty for arriving late was the same as for rebelling: They were ultimately killed by their own men when their uprising proved a lost cause.

Alternatively, this could be compared to Caesar crossing the Rubicon: a charismatic military commander holding troops' personal loyalty faces a choice between yielding civil government demands to give up his army and riches and taking up arms against it. Caesar was successful despite mixed results in battle, but was ultimately unable to escape assassination at the literal hands of his political opponents.

This is likely closer to the mark than not. To build on this, the Russian MOD had reportedly been trying to compel Wagner forces in Ukraine to sign enlistment contracts, ie. become normal Russian military soldiers and dismantle Wagner's (and thus Prigozhin's) parallel command structure and organizational autonomy.

Basically, Prigozhin ran Wagner as a semi-independent militia, and his hated rival tried to revoke his independence before allegedly bombing him.

Russia recently required PMC groups to all sign up so they are under direct command of Russian MoD. Prigozhin refused, and if he doesn't sign up his funding gets cut and even with his money he won't be keeping a 30k+ mercenary group afloat for more than a couple months.

I really think he was banking on Russia's failures in Ukraine vs his successes to catapult him into power. He released a really bizarre, even by the standards of propaganda in this war bizarre, video a few days ago. Claimed that the Ukrainian offensive was actually going well for them and that the Russian military was failing, Ukraine was already occupying Tokmak, Russia lied about Donbas shelling because the Oligarchs needed the war. Yes, the Oligarchs that the west thought would rise up and oust Putin for getting their western assets seized wanted the war... Really out there stuff given even western sources don't claim much success so far and there is video and picture evidence that the territorial losses aren't real.

Maybe he just realized his time was up and figured this is his only shot at Shoigu. Too often people try to ascribe rational motivations to other humans when really people aren't very rational. Prigozhin more than most.

I think the more interesting question is why is Wagner following him? Are they following? Is it just a loyal core? Because without some assurances or other info they'd have to be suicidal as well. He's not a military leader, he doesn't actually direct Wagner forces, he's just the frontman. I'm more interested in what the power players within Wagner are up to.

Even if that is the plan, I don't see a way it could play out that nicely. Putin and Prigozhin release a carefully rehearsed set of statements, and then what? Surely a Russian would think to ask "How many divisions does Shoigu have?"

People in the Twitter replies are suggesting it's a psyop, presumably to trick the Ukrainians into underestimating them. The Russians do have a reputation for maskirovka, but this seems too elaborate for that. Besides, the CIA would have surely found out beforehand, just as they did with the invasion. And what if the rank and file take it seriously? I would assume many are unhappy with how the war is going and would welcome a change in leadership.

People in the Twitter

You mean, all the usual RWA, Donbas Devushka, Kim Dotcom, Zoka or whoever have you? Just speaks of how delusional those people are, and how delusional is "anti-nato" crowd who keeps eating their takes.

Another theory I've heard is that Prigozhin and Putin are both involved: have a mini coup, clear house in the MoD, and use that as pretext to cut the war short.

That also seems far too elaborate, though.

Another theory I've heard is that Prigozhin and Putin are both involved: have a mini coup, clear house in the MoD, and use that as pretext to cut the war short.

That also seems far too elaborate, though.

And I can't see Putin consenting to a subterfuge that makes him look weak. It destroys his entire image.

some kind of coup special military operation

The preferred term is march of justice.

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