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news from ukraine: the leader of wagner group has accused the russian military of bombing his forces. seems to be preparing some kind of
coupspecial military operation. russian generals are asking mercenaries not to join in. prigozhin has vocally criticized russian military leaders recently, but this is a massive escalation. could we see a civil war break out in the middle of this war?update: prigozhin claims that he has entered rostov without resistance. lots of unverified videos on twitter of wagner/russian convoy movements, and some combat footage; wagner claims to have shot down a russian helicopter.
video of supposedly wagner soldiers and tanks surrounding the MoD building in rostov.
Wagner has no chance of doing anything. Russian MoD can easily crush them. Putin used Wagner to avoid mass mobilisation early on but this strategy has now backfired. He also likes playing all sides against each other to keep them on their toes. This includes his own generals.
Prigozhin simply didn't understand he was just a chess piece in a greater game, he thought he was an actual leader. He will learn very shortly who is the real boss. Ultimately he isn't a threat, but this entire situation was allowed to develop because of Putin's inability to call a war what it needs to be called: a war, rather than his SMO bullshit. He should never have allowed these militias to proliferate and should have called up a much bigger mobilisation drive to begin with. But that's water under the bridge. Wagner as a group is now a spent force in Russia. They could survive as mercs in MENA/Africa, going back to their original, smaller roots.
That Wagner is unlikely to succeed in a coup is not the same thing as not producing any consequences (doing anything). The threat of Prigozhin's rebellion isn't in the likely doomed attempt- it's in the second and third order effects of the purges to follow not just against Wagner, but Wagner's allies, and the apathetic sorts of bystanders who didn't oppose them with fervency.
Prigozhin and Wagner aren't politically significant in the sense that 'Prigozhin thought he was a real boss.' Prigozhin is well aware, hence why he went on his antics for publicity, and targetting his feud of the MOD bosses, and the instigation event being Shugoi's alleged attempts to both administratively dismantle Wagner's independence (Soldier contract demands) and potential bombing. Prigozhin likely isn't under delusions that he's 'a real boss'- he's likely under very clear understanding that he was targetted and doomed, and is deciding to go down fighting.
Prigozhin and Wagner are politically significant in that they are representative/rallying points for a key contingent of what you might call 'the non-state nationalism.' Wagner is... I hate to use vague terms live 'Avatar' or 'totem,' but symbollic of the idea of a Russian strength that's not simply the state. Signalling support for Wagner was a way to show your support for Russia as a good nationalist even if you opposed/detested/thought Shugoi and the MOD were incompetent/wrong/ruinous. Being pro-Wagner was a form of acceptable criticism of the regime by people who were fellow travelers. It was a nexus through which anti-Shugoi factions could persist and loosely coordinate.
When Shugoi wins- and I agree that he's likely to win this- he is not going to stop at just Wagner leaders. He's going to go after their allies, which includes not only other disaffected oligarchs (it's own risk to the system if/when a class of greedy opportunists opportunistically move against eachother to take eachother's stuff), but their support networks as well, which includes their media/social presence spheres. And in that, what was previously swarths of officially tolerated opinions- and criticisms- will no longer be tolerated, but officially suppressible.
What this will mean is up for debate, but the reason Wagner was a totem of alternative nationalists was that they didn't want to support the existing national symbol of strength- the MOD-military- in the first place. Removing the alternative doesn't mean people will transfer their favor to the persons/institutions that did so... and is likely to be suppressing them either actively or with open suspicion. Dismantling parts of the oligarchy doesn't mean that only the traitorous parts are subject to being targetted- or that only the traitors will resist and fly back.
This is an event that, even in failure, will change how the war-supporting base view the government fighting the war, and how the oligarchs move against eachother. Either would be significant on their own, and this is before Putin's typical insecurities drive further responses against either group.
And there's likely no significance in any of that. That's the nature, the main modus operandi of russian elites. You may see some bones fly out from beneath the rug and it'll be obvious who won, as Churchill was saying. As long as Putin is left standing, and there's very little doubt that he will, nothing will change strategically. There's enough people who want to be a bit richer so it's not hard to replace couple of not-loyal enough oligarchs. Although there's always some chance for something...
No. I would say Prig's actions will have either large immediate consequences (days) or very little consequences otherwise. Some internal oligarchy power play is irrelevant.
Yes. Oligarchy power plays are only irrelevant when the oligarchy is irrelevant- but in Russia, these oligarchs and their support networks have been very, very relevant in shaping Russian security policy and how Russia engages with the war both politically and socially. How the oligarchy reshuffles in the course of the Ukrainian war is one of the most significant impacts of the Ukrainian war since it became clear the Russians wouldn't win a conventional military victory.
The sanctioned purging of the hypernationalist / Wagnerite spectrum is not only a narrowing of Putin's own support base, it shapes the dynamic of what public support there is for the war and what peace terms are acceptable by neutering one of the only supportive (and most hardline) segments of Russian society, it shapes the foreign policy priorities of the security establishment, and critically it shapes the potential post-Ukraine and even post-Putin power dynamics.
To pick just one example: despite hiccups, Wagner and the Chechans were relative allies against the MOD, despite their own differences and issues. While Kadyrov would/did/has absolutely prioritize personal loyalty to Putin above any desire to join his ally in mutiny, in different circumstances (i.e. Putin had a heart attack), Kadyrov and Prigozhin could easily have been allies-of-convenience in shaping a post-Putin environment, with dynamics such as advancing eachother's autonomy and devolving Russia to a more warlord-style state. When Wagners' brothers-in-anti-MOD-autonomy are purged, Kadyrov will be isolated- weakening his position- and Shugoi will use the Wagner example as grounds to consolidate MOD control (and expand his own patronage/influence network) over other semi-autonomous oligarch mercenary groups. Such a challenge and change to potential trajectories is the epitome of a relevant consequence.
So, how's the consequences?
Last paragraph seems to have hit the nail on the head as far as predictions go, for just one example.
I'm sure of it. You really need to appreciate the fine art of westerners to sell their word piss as diamonds.
You really did a multi-month necro just to get a last word and block, huh? That is sincerely amusing, thanks for making a good morning.
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I don't care, sorry.
Then don't post.
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