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news from ukraine: the leader of wagner group has accused the russian military of bombing his forces. seems to be preparing some kind of
coupspecial military operation. russian generals are asking mercenaries not to join in. prigozhin has vocally criticized russian military leaders recently, but this is a massive escalation. could we see a civil war break out in the middle of this war?update: prigozhin claims that he has entered rostov without resistance. lots of unverified videos on twitter of wagner/russian convoy movements, and some combat footage; wagner claims to have shot down a russian helicopter.
video of supposedly wagner soldiers and tanks surrounding the MoD building in rostov.
Anatoly Karlin:
Though he seems to be considering it more straightforwardly 3h later (not necessarily at odds with above)
Does he have an account here? @akarlin
RWA:
Though of course this is only the dregs of pro-Russian commentary that makes it into english.
Maybe I'm just burnt out on 4d chess takes after the Trump era, but I feel like it's real, even as someone that is entirely anti-nato to the point I would turncoat in a second if i had a chance to damage the alliance. Prigozhin actually reminds me of Trump after following the war the last year. Issues with emotional regulation that border on mental illness, or maybe drug issues, or both. Something goes well and he's singing everyones praises, something doesn't go well and he jumps on telegram and calls everyone names and goes on a rant.
Seemed like earlier in the war he banked on the successes of Wagner relative to the rest of the Russia military and Shoigu who fucked up the initial invasion and took forever to reorient. Used his successes in Bakhmut as currency to keep himself afloat after his outbursts and tirades.
Then going into the Ukrainian Counteroffensive he seemed to be banking on continued Russian failures to keep him untouchable but when they didn't materialize and even western sources started to comment that Russia is starting to adapt and get the rust off he's now found himself in a corner. All the insubordinate outbursts were remembered but now he is losing his pull due to the regular Russian military finally (sorta) getting it's shit together.
Think it could be real and he is just that desperate. Seems more straightforward than all the other theories, Occam and what not.
The question is why he's so desperate, such that this seemed like his best option. Maybe his rivals at the MoD had discovered something that was the end of his career either way?
Russia recently required PMC groups to all sign up so they are under direct command of Russian MoD. Prigozhin refused, and if he doesn't sign up his funding gets cut and even with his money he won't be keeping a 30k+ mercenary group afloat for more than a couple months.
I really think he was banking on Russia's failures in Ukraine vs his successes to catapult him into power. He released a really bizarre, even by the standards of propaganda in this war bizarre, video a few days ago. Claimed that the Ukrainian offensive was actually going well for them and that the Russian military was failing, Ukraine was already occupying Tokmak, Russia lied about Donbas shelling because the Oligarchs needed the war. Yes, the Oligarchs that the west thought would rise up and oust Putin for getting their western assets seized wanted the war... Really out there stuff given even western sources don't claim much success so far and there is video and picture evidence that the territorial losses aren't real.
Maybe he just realized his time was up and figured this is his only shot at Shoigu. Too often people try to ascribe rational motivations to other humans when really people aren't very rational. Prigozhin more than most.
I think the more interesting question is why is Wagner following him? Are they following? Is it just a loyal core? Because without some assurances or other info they'd have to be suicidal as well. He's not a military leader, he doesn't actually direct Wagner forces, he's just the frontman. I'm more interested in what the power players within Wagner are up to.
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