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Notes -
news from ukraine: the leader of wagner group has accused the russian military of bombing his forces. seems to be preparing some kind of
coupspecial military operation. russian generals are asking mercenaries not to join in. prigozhin has vocally criticized russian military leaders recently, but this is a massive escalation. could we see a civil war break out in the middle of this war?update: prigozhin claims that he has entered rostov without resistance. lots of unverified videos on twitter of wagner/russian convoy movements, and some combat footage; wagner claims to have shot down a russian helicopter.
video of supposedly wagner soldiers and tanks surrounding the MoD building in rostov.
Irresponsible speculation, questions, and thoughts from someone with zero qualifications:
-- I got a lot of pushback from people on this board who tend Pro-Russia along the lines of "staying in place in the capital when invaded is the absolute bare minimum that anyone would do, especially if the invasion doesn't have a good chance of success." Well, here we are. I don't know if this is a strong/weak/nonexistent signal of how things are going, but it appears to have happened.
-- Assuming Prigozhin loses, which seems most likely?, what will the consequences be to those involved? Will Wagnerites be crucified along the highway from Moscow to Rostov? Will soldiers and officials who collaborated be punished? Will soldiers who allowed them to pass be punished? Will soldiers who failed to confront Wagner energetically enough be punished? We have yet to see serious armed confrontation from what I can tell, and rumors abound that in Rostov aircraft are allowed to fly missions into Ukraine only with a Wagnerite aboard to keep an eye on everyone, one can assume that other aspects of the Russian army are being run with Wagner commissars the same way? Will those soldiers be punished for continuing to do their jobs?
-- Equally, would there be any credible threat of consequences against those who work too energetically against Wagner at the local level? I'm reading Garcia-Marquez' News of a Kidnapping right now, and one aspect of Columbian society that kept the Narcos in business for so long was local authorities knowing that even if their actions lead to a successful prosecution against the
gang leader, the witness had good odds of getting killed by one or another gang in retaliation. If national guard and police units are scared of the consequences from Wagner or allies, and hesitate, that could give the gap needed. See also the other book I'm reading: Europe's Tragedy, covering how the lack of faith in ultimate victory by local elites tended to lead to manifold incidents of Bet-Hedging that paralyzed the state's ability to win a total victory.
-- Regardless of outcome, how long can this be sustained while also putting up sufficient resistance on the Ukrainian front? It has to start fucking with logistics within a week, right? Morale? Will this present a significant problem if this lasts two weeks?
-- What international prestige cost does this carry for Russia?
-- I'm getting the feeling that I should stockpile canned goods. The NAFO asshats are cheering this on, but unpredictable events are unpredictable.
-- I pray for peace, in whatever form it takes.
ETA: Didn't see this one coming.
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