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The ongoing French riots bring into sharp relief the fantasy that if we just don't talk about race or religion, the issue will disappear. To be clear, I still prefer the French approach because if you don't measure something you can't really do much about it. The main beneficiary of France suddenly going the US/UK route of meticulously collecting racial and religious statistics wouldn't be the far-right but rather the far-left. Racial and possibly religious quotas would soon follow with official state-sanctioned discrimination as the end result.
Yet the rioters clearly view themselves as apart from French society. Even genteel liberal journalists concede as much.
What are the long-term effects going to be? Perhaps I am cynical but I suspect nothing much. France had these kinds of riots in 2005 and they changed nothing.
I remembering reading a lot about Islam and immigration in the 2010-2012 time period, during which many UK conservative personalities were praising the French approach of "aggressive assimiliationism" as opposed to the supposedly feeble multiculturalist approach preferred by the UK. It seems to me that there's no functional difference. The UK had its own riots in 2011. One could plausibly make the case that the BLM riots in the US during 2014 and then 2020 fall under the same rubric.
Whatever the system, these periodic events happen in diverse societies and then they are forgotten until the next outbreak. The system isn't strong enough to overcome racial and religious differences completely but it's also much stronger than many right-wing doomers seem to think. After the kerfuffle everyone moves on. There's no reason to think it will be different this time.
Right, people in the West, in France in this case, are much too comfortable to do anything here. And that’s for a number of reasons.
The threshold for “do something” is absurdly high. The most politically charged question for the French far-right is, of course, repatriation. That means stripping millions (at least 6-7m in France) of people of citizenship based on ancestry and then deporting them to a third country that doesn’t want them (you think Algeria or Morocco want millions more listless, angry young men?). This violates every constitutional statute, the EU, the ECHR. Most citizens still find even the idea of this shocking and distasteful. It is about as beyond the pale in Western Europe as banning women from the workplace or forcing 8 year olds back into factories. Even Zemmour, as I’ve said, doesn’t begin to hint at doing this.
France is a highly ghettoized society. In building the banlieues on the periphery, the French ensured the inner arrondissements of Paris avoided the same fate as the downtown areas of many American cities from the 1960s onward. But the price for that was ignorance. In London, social housing occupied by Somalis sits next to $15m townhouses. In America’s great cities, at least in their downtown areas, you now can’t walk a few blocks without encountering the ravages of the underclass. In Paris, what is out of sight is out of mind. And France is so centralized that what happens outside Paris really doesn’t matter very much.
The “choices” are becoming starker as demographics change. Even though the majority of the population remains native, birth rate disparities mean that a highly disproportionate percentage of young people - of particular relevance, obviously, young men - are from MENA communities. One can imagine a situation where 60% of the population is still native in 20 years, but 50% or even 55% of fighting-age males are from those communities. At that point, the situation is extremely dicey. The military and police have recruited from diverse communities heavily, there’s no guarantee what side they’d be on in a serious civil conflict. Most French with any money would flee elsewhere in the EU or overseas. A weak central government collapsing or maintaining limited control over a military kept in bases or deployed abroad and then roaming bands of young men fighting district by district is a possibility. At that point, one’s money might well be on the Algerians.
Comfort will be prioritized until it’s too late. What is unreasonable will become reasonable too late. What is foretold will become reality too late. A Lebanese Civil War that started in 1958 would have likely been much better for the Christians (who then still constituted a majority, before the PLO was forced out of Jordan) than the civil war that began in 1975 was. Ben-Gurion even offered to carve out a state for Christians in 1956. But the Maronites of 1958 were too comfortable. They never thought their position would be truly threatened. They could not imagine the rivers of blood that would flow through Beirut.
So it goes.
At first blush, this is an absurdity. Then I remember that race relations in the UK are different than in the US, with UK blacks ahead in life expectancy and nearly equal in earnings. I suspect this is largely a selection effect: a much greater share of blacks in the UK are elite immigrants from Africa compared to the US - though perhaps not Somalis.
Guillaume Durocher, a thoughtful French nationalist on Twitter, believes that the most likely scenario in the medium-term is akin to Brasil rather than Lebanon or Yugoslavia. His reasoning is that this underclass has no real political aspirations, let alone organisational skills, and their aims are purely criminal and opportunistically short-termist in nature.
So France will resemble Brasil where a small elite hoard all the wealth and a sizable minority of middle-class whites sit just beneath them. Below those two rungs, crime levels and general dysfunction will proliferate, leading to gated communities etc. We could also see a lessening of France's social model with high taxes as elites will be unwilling to shoulder such a high burden. Given that elite migration will be a very real threat, France's institutions may well oblige.
I guess the only real counter-argument to his view is that race relations in Brasil seem to be more amiable. I know relatively little about either country, but my impression is that the resentment in France (perhaps in part due to the colonial legacy, and partly as a result of ethnic French arrogance) is much greater among the non-white groups. If this is true then your more pessimistic view could well win out.
No, you were correct in your first understanding. It is a relatively small section of London, but in say, Notting Hill, you have large estates mostly divvied up semi ethnically e.g. Somali, Carribbean, Moroccan, cheek by jowl with £15m townhouses.
The road David Beckham lives on for example, is less than a 10 minute walk to multiple estates, and less than 20 minutes walk to Grenfell tower itself. This is (as far as I'm aware) a uniquely (West?) London thing, where the houses by Ladbroke Grove station will be £10-20m and yet 1 road next door will be a very poor housing estate. I used to think it was great, as an example of semi-integration (Ghettoisation leading to say bad shops, bad services). Nowadays, I'm ambivalent, but I appreciate its uniqueness.
There are relatively few places in London with $10-20m houses as standard (and as you say those are often concentrated in West and North London - Holland Park, Notting Hill/Westbourne Grove, Little Venice where the best villas border the Paddington Green estates, all the way up to St John’s Wood especially on the northwest side as you get up to Swiss Cottage, then also Belsize Park and Hampstead), but on a lesser scale it happens with $2-5m properties in Islington in the north, around King’s Cross, in Hackney and Shoreditch, and in parts of the south like parts of Wandsworth and Dulwich to some extent. There are relatively few prime and semi-prime parts of London that aren’t close to relatively bad estates. Possibly the Chelsea-South Ken-Belgravia-Mayfair continuum, although even there there are exceptions.
Interestingly, in 2011 the more spread out West London estates contributed much less to rioting than the outlying, arguably more Parisian ones in the south in Brixton/Lewisham and to the north in Tottenham.
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