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Ok so I am at a Notre Dame wedding where I went. I’ve fallen away from the news of the place the last few years. A few people did the student to administrator route so I got some news on how the place is doing. The school no longer has priest in the dorms. From what I can guess it’s because people aren’t entering religious life so they lack the numbers. Notre Dame isn’t the church but I do think it had a special place in American Catholicism.
I feel like this has a culture war point. The right is no longer reproducing itself. The right perhaps is a larp from people who remember the old days but aren’t living that life. Which would explain how someone like Trump could be the chosen leader.
When I went there we would all do our things during the week and live together then our rector a Priest would give mass. And if you wanted to you could go to daily mass and walk down the hall.
I feel like this is anecdotal but there is something here when an institution is failing to reproduce itself.
At the same time non religious women's fertility is falling while religious women are still reproducing.
Religiousness is hard in a world when it isn't the norm. It is hard to be a genuine believer in a nihilistic society. Religiously inclined people who are pushed in a more liberal direction by the zeitgeist of society are becoming the dominant group along with the welfare class who fail at using contraceptives. Once religiously inclined people gain a significant portion of the population, they will move the norms in their direction, thus creating a religious revival.
Our society is heavily selecting for two groups: the religious with conservative values and welfare class people. The liberal left are not reproducing.
political ideology is 40% heritable
What about life extension or ideological capture, or a thousand other things that could change? Birth rates aren’t everything, you cant just use them to predict the future so confidently, even if it fits your preferred narrative.
US life expectancy is trending downwards, not toward infinity. Overall there seems to be an S-curve for human lifespans with technology. Life extension might be possible but probably isn't going to impact within a few generations. Even if we stop dying we will still have new babies and most of them will be born to youngish people.
Politics is an art that Americans have never learned. Libertarian and free market fundamentalists never learn this either, which gets exposed when you hear them say things like “the government sucks at everything.” Neither have understood bureaucracy the way Britain or China have, historically speaking.
We view our successes and failures as something that rests on the idea of individual liberty. We all succeed or fail on that basis, alone. So many of our policies don’t involve active government efforts to improve the standards of living in the country, in the same way the CCP has lifted hundreds of millions of its citizens out of poverty. I think things trending downward in the US is mostly just an ideology and social attitudes problem.
With respect, this is profoundly ignorant of U.S. politics before about 1960.
What exactly is the high point you’d call American political economy; that ‘isn’t’ an afterthought or a footnote to the rest of American political history?
I'm not sure what you mean by "an afterthought or a footnote" but 19th and early 20th century U.S. politics are all about brass-tacks, "jobs-for-the-boys" style patronage. As the high point, I'd point to maybe the various landgrant laws from the mid-1800's on, just because of the massive scale of the uplift caused thereby.
Well, I suppose on this point we’re looking to emphasize two separate things. I’ve always viewed the notion of “small government” as a retreat from the necessity of politics, by people who lack the gift or soft touch for being able to wield it. It’s more than just a trade off that we pay as an ode to the ideal of liberty.
The lack of our system to keep pace with the rapid changes of the modern world, are going to be one of the things that ultimately do us in. You can see aspects of this at work in contemporary events as well.
Look at Biden’s bid for re-election. It’s likely to shape up as another contest between he and Trump. And there’s an interesting political contrast between someone like Trump and what’s been going on with Macron and the protests in France, going back years now. If you look back to when Trump got elected, almost no western liberal would’ve disagreed that he was a disaster for the US, and that someone like Macron getting elected was a success. But if you come all the way up to today, the exact ‘opposite’ has been proven true.
The roots of people’s frustration with Macron ultimately had to do with him wanting to implement some pretty sound macroeconomic reforms. One thing he wanted to do was increase the diesel tax, which would’ve reduced the French budget deficit and helped lower CO2 emissions. Then he’d be in a stronger fiscal position, and that would increase confidence and investment in France so that the bottom half of the society could benefit. But the French people didn’t want to tolerate short term pain for long term gain, so it didn’t happen. But the problem is for the people to benefit, they ‘have’ to trust their leader at times. And Macron lost the trust of that half of the population.
But with Trump, he had that trust and confidence of the bottom 50%. Segmented by racial lines of course, but the point remains. When Trump attacked the political establishment, he was venting the anger of that half of the population who felt ignored and cast by the wayside. This really shouldn’t be that hard to understand. It really is that straightforward. And so when he was elected, it had a cathartic effect on the bottom half, in a way you didn’t experience protests in D.C. The average income of Americans has stagnated and declined over the course of the last 40 years, quite noticeably. The ‘why’ of that is almost entirely misunderstood by the general population, and Americans do have a right to be very angry, but in our society, part of the problem is that we too strongly emphasize the principle of liberty over addressing social and economic inequalities. This is where I argue that we don’t understand the art of governance. There was a time where that used to be true, but it’s part of a history that’s been lost to us.
The problem with western liberalism, is that they tend to believe that as long as elections take place, and people can vote freely and equally, that ‘alone’ is sufficient for social stability. And it isn’t. The ‘government’ also needs an active and responsible hand in ‘raising’ the quality and standard of living among the population. China has always understood this. Britain has almost always understood this. Germany has understood this. But believing in the above fiction entails the belief that your own economic woes and failings owe to personal incompetence, and not broader social conditions. And when liberals want to emphasize the latter part of that, I 100% agree with them. But they’re going about it ‘entirely’ the wrong way.
Trump’s policies of running larger deficits in relatively good times, is going to bring pain later, while Macron’s policies would’ve ameliorated some inequality woes, had French people simply remained patient. But they didn’t. And so where Trump is concerned, liberals messed up when they focused on too much of Trump himself. His personality, narcissism, etc. if they wanted to defeat Trump decisively, they need to regain the trust of voters. And that involves taking a stance against the status quo that blocks meaningful reform from taking place. They can either feel good, being butthurt over Trump the man, or they can attack the causes that contributed to him getting elected.
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