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Notes -
A 126 page legal analysis of section 3 of amendment 14 of the constitution was released yesterday, arguing that Donald Trump, among others, is ineligible for public office, including the presidency. The authors are conservative, active in the Federalist society.
For reference, the relevant part of the constitution is
Among the arguments made were that it is legally self-executing—that is, it applies, like the 35 year old minimum age, without an explicit system to handle it to be set up by congress. Further, they think that people at almost every step along the process, from state officials deciding who goes on the ballots, to those capable of bringing an Amendment 25 complaint have a duty to ensure that this provision is fulfilled.
In reference to Trump, they argued that the events on and surrounding January 6th intending to overturn the election would constitute "insurrection or rebellion" as understood at the time of the passing of the amendment.
I can't see this not being important, but I'm not sure how exactly it'll play out—we could get court cases, possibly going up to the supreme court (no idea how that would play out). We may see state officials refuse to put Trump on the ballot. I expect this to lead to a substantial increase in support for Trump if this is seen as illegitimate, as it undoubtedly will be. At the same time, if this happens during the primary elections, and Trump is not even on the ballot in some states, it might make it significantly easier for another candidate to become the Republican nominee, unless the national Republican party interferes with it.
Note on the link: the pdf isn't opening for me right now and the wayback machine isn't helping. It was fine earlier, not sure what the issue is.
It appears to be quite a lot of words to say not a bit of much. Let us imagine an alternative scenario:
Everything is the same, Trump does all the same things, gives the same speech, but instead of the FBI, DHS, and DOD failing to give the Capitol police up to date intelligence about the size of the protest, they give them that intelligence. Then, being given that, the Capitol police's request for reinforcement from the National guard is not denied by the House and Senate. Thus instead of its barricades being mostly unmanned and folding like a cheap suit, they perhaps stop the riot at the steps. Or, perhaps they just shut and lock the doors.
Who seriously thinks that in such a situation anyone would make a case for insurrection?
So, we see the truth: The whole thing is actually about incompetent security. Possibly intentionally incompetent.
The point of this particular legal tactic is none of that has to actually be litigated. A judge just says "Naa, looks like insurrection to me", higher courts deny standing and otherwise refuse to review, and the officeholder is dismissed and disqualified, as in the New Mexico case AshLael is flogging. But that's just pure partisan lawmaking by judges who care only about the result and not the law -- something rather common when used against the right, as when Judge Emmet Sullivan refused to dismiss charges against Michael Flynn. We're not quite yet at the point that'll work on a major candidate for President, though maybe next time it will.
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