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As someone who likes watching US presidential elections as if they were a sport, this has been by far the most boring election season we've had since I started watching in 2008. Primary season plus the ensuing general election used to guarantee at least a year and a half of interesting coverage, with the primaries in particular being full of drama, ups-and-downs, and upsets.
In 2008 we had Obama vs Hillary, a classic for the ages. The R side wasn't that bad either, with McCain's come-from-behind victory.
In 2012 was the most volatile primary we've had, with the polling frontrunner changing no less than 11 times as Romney's weak lead was tested by Bachmann, Perry, Cain, Gingrich, and Santorum before they all imploded one after another.
In 2016 was the rise of Trump, another classic for the ages. The frontrunner didn't actually change that much, but the sheer ridiculousness of Trump's unprecedented run made it hard to turn your eyes away. Hillary vs Sanders was also somewhat interesting, albeit far less so than Hillary vs Obama 8 years earlier.
In 2020 things were somewhat less interesting with Biden's lead enduring for most of primary. But at least that lead felt tense, like the floor could drop out with a few missteps, which is indeed what happened when Biden lost Iowa and New Hampshire, although it became obvious that he would win after Super Tuesday. This election also featured the worst (best) presidential debate in US history when Biden faced off against Trump for the first time.
By comparison, what does this election season have? Biden is running as an incumbent with no credible challengers. That only leaves the Republican side, which isn't much better. Trump's lead is commanding, and that doesn't show any signs of changing. The most credible threat is DeSantis, but he's been far too timid at attacking Trump. The pitch he should be making is something like "Trump's ideas and energy were great, but he lacked the follow-through to enact lasting change and was easily distracting by people like Kushner". Alternatively, he could have done something like Hanania suggested and challenge Trump to a boxing match. Instead, he's barely attacked Trump at all, creating the bizarre situation where a man is running to be president but refuses to directly tell us why we should prefer him over the frontrunner. In the end, it might not have mattered in any case. Negative partisanship is the driving force in American politics more than anything else, and Trump's ability to make liberals seethe apparently earned him so much goodwill that Republicans will vote for him no matter how many elections he loses.
It seems like Trump isn't going to appear at the Republican debate, which will likely turn the thing into an irrelevant snooze fest. Christie will probably attack Trump and the other candidates will likely rush to his defense, which will only further solidify the current dynamics. At this point the most interesting thing that's happened is Ramaswamy's mini-surge to third place which really shows how boring this whole affair is. Him, Scott, and and maybe Haley are essentially just running to be vice president, while other candidates like Pence, Christie, and the rest are doing the old presidential-campaign-as-glorified-press-conference thing, or have too much of an ego to see they have no shot.
The only thing that could make the current race entertaining is if Biden or Trump randomly drop dead, or if Trump is convicted of sufficiently serious crimes. Those would certainly be shockers, but the ramifications are hard to forecast before they actually happen.
I've seen what is claimed to be the Republican primary list and it's a mix of the "oh boy" and the "literally who?"
I have no idea of Mike Pence's chances, but I feel it will be the reverse of Biden riding on Obama's coat-tails to the presidency; being the ex-VP for Trump is going to lose him votes all round (he's tainted for the never-Trumpers and he's a traitor to the Trumpists).
Ron DeSantis - I honestly don't know. I think he is the Republican version of Gavin Newsom in this race, if that makes any sense; his chances have been talked up (and certainly there are people on the left having panic attacks about his evilness) but I think there's less there than meets the eye.
The rest of them realistically don't have much chance (c'mon Doug, what are you thinking?) and while I kinda like Nikki Haley I don't think she has the base or the support for this.
I suppose just wait and see the first debates and if anyone goes full-on crazy?
The difference between DeSantis and Gavin Newsom is that DeSantis has shown himself to be competent at governing. Things have been going pretty great for Florida in material terms during his tenure, while California is more of a basket case than ever (that 2021-2022 Florida was the fastest growing state in the union for the first time since the 50s, while California lost population over the last two years says a lot).
On the other hand, being a competent governor doesn't mean that you can run a competent presidential campaign. We'll see what happens when the primaries start, but as a DeSantis supporter I've got a bad feeling about his chances.
Why I compared him to Newsom is "being talked up by his own side, is young in political terms, but what has he really done?" Newsom at least demonstrated that he has the national party at his back when they pulled out the stops to help him during recall. DeSantis doesn't have that same level of support that I can see.
Both of them, this is a bad election if they're going to run. Newsom I don't see as potential anything, yeah he's Governor of California, has a very good close friend in the Getty family and has the national party willing to run interference for him, but outside of that as president I struggle to think what policies if any he has in mind (apart from the general liberal-progressive Dem stuff).
DeSantis, I think this is the wrong election for him. It's still Trump-Biden fallout needing to be cleared away, and getting in the middle of that risks relegating him to the also-rans. He's done a lot more than Newsom as a governor of a state, and I do think he should wait it out, win his fights with Disney (where I think he has a good chance of victory) and wait for the anti-woke backlash (if it really exists) to mature then ride that wave in 2028 as a strong, credible Republican candidate.
But right now? Trump is still casting a shadow, and it's Biden/maybe Harris on the Democrat side. I think there would be just enough "no to DeathSantis" sentiment to get Joe a second term, especially with the usual scaremongering about abortion, LGBT* etc., and not enough pro-DeSantis on the Republican side to get him anywhere. Going as a failed candidate ('couldn't even beat a geriatric Sleepy Joe') in 2028 would, I think, hurt his chances even more.
*The travel advisory is side-splitting:
Oh no, you have an accent? The Gestapo will haul you off to the Florida deathcamps the second you open your gob! Meanwhile, in my own country, there's travel advisory about "be careful in Dublin because you're liable to be hospitalised by feral little scumbags robbing tourists in broad daylight on main streets".
Why not make your will, make sure you are in a state of grace, and arrange your funeral before you go, while you're at it? 🙄
Indeed, there's two of them, the latter about "don't be black in Florida".
But don't worry, immigrant queer Black and brown persons, God is gonna get him!
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I think the big difference is that Newsom is handsome and - provided his remarkably low intelligence (and I mean that in a non-political way, he really does seem stupid) is kept away from the public - relatively charming. DeSantis is none of those things. Newsom could 100% make it to the White House; he might well not, each generation has many also-rans that never quite do it. But he isn't as handicapped as DeSantis is by the fact that the GOP base seems to just not like him.
He does have a talent for brown-nosing the wealthy which would certainly stand him in good stead with the Democratic Party donors (unlike Hillary at the dinner for the wealthy gays, I don't think Gavin would make a faux-pas about the baskets of deplorables and less deplorable, he knows how to be less direct in his flattery):
See? Stroke the ego of potential patrons about their artistic talents, let them play Medici lord to your grateful client self.
He may not be very stupid, allegedly he has severe dyslexia:
His father was a childhood friend of Getty and (as I understand it) since Gordon's sons are all failures (two have already died of drug overdoses, another had an acrimonious divorce and did nothing with his life etc) Gavin became more of an adopted son to Gordon. At least that seems to be the perception in California. He's essentially a Getty heir, just not biologically.
I know about the father being a Getty staff member, and I have a lot of doubts about the potted bio in Wikipedia (either dear old dad was a son of a bitch of the first water who neglected his ex-wife and kids leaving them in what passed for genteel poverty, or there's some gilding the lily going on about Gavin's tough upbringing with not even a present at Christmas while his mother was also taking in foster kids).
I doubt Getty Patriarch sees him as an heir (certainly not for inheritance purposes anyway) but as a loyal retainer in succession to his father, and one has a certain noblesse oblige to the son of the old servant. While he may be happier with Gavin trotting around as a substitute for his, er, interesting biological family, make no douibt that he sees him as anything more than a client.
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Why do you think so many of the recent aristocratic scions have been utter failures?
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