This weekly roundup thread is intended for all culture war posts. 'Culture war' is vaguely defined, but it basically means controversial issues that fall along set tribal lines. Arguments over culture war issues generate a lot of heat and little light, and few deeply entrenched people ever change their minds. This thread is for voicing opinions and analyzing the state of the discussion while trying to optimize for light over heat.
Optimistically, we think that engaging with people you disagree with is worth your time, and so is being nice! Pessimistically, there are many dynamics that can lead discussions on Culture War topics to become unproductive. There's a human tendency to divide along tribal lines, praising your ingroup and vilifying your outgroup - and if you think you find it easy to criticize your ingroup, then it may be that your outgroup is not who you think it is. Extremists with opposing positions can feed off each other, highlighting each other's worst points to justify their own angry rhetoric, which becomes in turn a new example of bad behavior for the other side to highlight.
We would like to avoid these negative dynamics. Accordingly, we ask that you do not use this thread for waging the Culture War. Examples of waging the Culture War:
-
Shaming.
-
Attempting to 'build consensus' or enforce ideological conformity.
-
Making sweeping generalizations to vilify a group you dislike.
-
Recruiting for a cause.
-
Posting links that could be summarized as 'Boo outgroup!' Basically, if your content is 'Can you believe what Those People did this week?' then you should either refrain from posting, or do some very patient work to contextualize and/or steel-man the relevant viewpoint.
In general, you should argue to understand, not to win. This thread is not territory to be claimed by one group or another; indeed, the aim is to have many different viewpoints represented here. Thus, we also ask that you follow some guidelines:
-
Speak plainly. Avoid sarcasm and mockery. When disagreeing with someone, state your objections explicitly.
-
Be as precise and charitable as you can. Don't paraphrase unflatteringly.
-
Don't imply that someone said something they did not say, even if you think it follows from what they said.
-
Write like everyone is reading and you want them to be included in the discussion.
On an ad hoc basis, the mods will try to compile a list of the best posts/comments from the previous week, posted in Quality Contribution threads and archived at /r/TheThread. You may nominate a comment for this list by clicking on 'report' at the bottom of the post and typing 'Actually a quality contribution' as the report reason.
Jump in the discussion.
No email address required.
Notes -
Prigozhin's death was quite an expected event, it is rather surprising that it happened now, two whole months after the failed coup. But I suspect his story is not over yet. Ignoring Yevgeny's personal qualities, he was not a stupid person, and therefore, even if he believed in the secret agreements that was made on June 24, Prigozhin necessarily kept or created an additional reason not to kill him, and soon we will find out about it. The reason may be some compromising material, military secrets, or, if he had confidence in the loyalty of his people, the threat of a second "march of justice" from the Wagner PMCs. The latter scenario is unlikely, further complicated by the death of Dmitry Utkin, but according to the rule of "interesting events" in Russia it may very well happen.
It is also interesting how exactly the "plane crash" occurred. Stories about bad pilots or incredibly successful Ukrainian terrorists may of course appear in the Russian media, but it is obvious to everyone who is responsible for the elimination of the mercenaries leader. From the point of view of constructing plausible deniability it would be much more correct to kill Prigozhin during his stay in Africa, recent one or in the future. There you can find hundreds of different convenient culprits with motivation and weapons: from the French to the Islamists. Instead, his plane "crashed" in the middle of European part of Russia, not so far from Moscow.
Plausible deniability is bad in one case - when you want to convey a message by your action. This is what the kremlins most likely planned. As many said at the end of the deflated coup: "if it turns out that you can occupy one city, march in columns on Moscow, and then if you fail you will not suffer any consequences, then there may be many who will want to try to do this themselves. No harm if you failed in the end." The message from the ruling clan concerns the second part - the consequences will be much more severe than mere exile to Belarus. The official version will still find a way to declare Prigozhin's death a "fatal accident", but the real message, barely fitting between the lines will be visible to everyone.
Will the death of the former chef become a last note in his life story or just the beginning of the third act? - we'll find out soon.
What confuses me are the unnecessary gangster methods. Prigozhin was on Russian territory and this time around, not even surrounded by a few thousand of his own soldiers. The Russian regime could have just seized him and Utkin, imprisoned them, and then sentenced them to death. Or, if that would be too bad for PR, then just imprison them indefinitely and maybe arrange to have them die a few years down the road. Or, if they had to be silenced quickly because in prison they would talk too much, just flat out have them shot by law enforcement and then claim that doing it this way saved lives which otherwise have been lost during the Prigozhin march on Moscow.
Any of these methods would lead to people trusting agreements made with the Russian regime less in the future, but blowing up the plane with only a thin degree of plausible deniability about who did it is going to lead to the exact same result.
Western regimes also sometimes surreptitiously kill people, like Iranian nuclear scientists. Some would say maybe Jeffrey Epstein. But they don't seem to revel in this sort of unnecessary, show-offy gangsterism about it. The Skripal case, if the Russian regime is indeed responsible for that one, is another example. Why use a chemical weapon? There are so many less dramatic ways to kill someone. I don't think that the gangster methods add any degree of additional intimidation factor. On the contrary, they just seem amateur compared to more professional approaches that could be equally effective in sending a message.
I could sit here and list practical reasons why these so-called "gangster methods" are preferable to banana republic show-trials, but I want to emphasize something else. They're just cooler.
Ethical concerns aside, it's hard to overstate just how badass the polonium-210 poisoning of Alexander Litvinenko was. Russian informant and known enemy of Vladimir Putin shows up at a London hospital with strange symptoms. Doctors can't figure out what's wrong. Radiation poisoning is suspected, but Geiger counter readings are negative. It takes military-grade equipment to detect radiation in his blood samples. Unlike almost all other radiation sources, samples of polonium-210 only emit alpha radiation. Alpha particles can't penatrate skin and can barely penetrate air. That's why the Geiger counter couldn't detect anything, but when emitted from inside the body, alpha radiation causes massive DNA damage. He never had a chance.
I don't think it's just a matter of "Putin wants to look cool", though. The problem with a big arrest and show trial is that snyone can do it, to anyone in a position to get arrested, which lets future enemies imagine they might be safe so long as they have an escape plan afterward. Litvinenko, and to a much lesser extent Prigozhin, demonstrate that Putin is willing and able to get more creative with murder than that.
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link