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As someone who likes watching US presidential elections as if they were a sport, this has been by far the most boring election season we've had since I started watching in 2008. Primary season plus the ensuing general election used to guarantee at least a year and a half of interesting coverage, with the primaries in particular being full of drama, ups-and-downs, and upsets.
In 2008 we had Obama vs Hillary, a classic for the ages. The R side wasn't that bad either, with McCain's come-from-behind victory.
In 2012 was the most volatile primary we've had, with the polling frontrunner changing no less than 11 times as Romney's weak lead was tested by Bachmann, Perry, Cain, Gingrich, and Santorum before they all imploded one after another.
In 2016 was the rise of Trump, another classic for the ages. The frontrunner didn't actually change that much, but the sheer ridiculousness of Trump's unprecedented run made it hard to turn your eyes away. Hillary vs Sanders was also somewhat interesting, albeit far less so than Hillary vs Obama 8 years earlier.
In 2020 things were somewhat less interesting with Biden's lead enduring for most of primary. But at least that lead felt tense, like the floor could drop out with a few missteps, which is indeed what happened when Biden lost Iowa and New Hampshire, although it became obvious that he would win after Super Tuesday. This election also featured the worst (best) presidential debate in US history when Biden faced off against Trump for the first time.
By comparison, what does this election season have? Biden is running as an incumbent with no credible challengers. That only leaves the Republican side, which isn't much better. Trump's lead is commanding, and that doesn't show any signs of changing. The most credible threat is DeSantis, but he's been far too timid at attacking Trump. The pitch he should be making is something like "Trump's ideas and energy were great, but he lacked the follow-through to enact lasting change and was easily distracting by people like Kushner". Alternatively, he could have done something like Hanania suggested and challenge Trump to a boxing match. Instead, he's barely attacked Trump at all, creating the bizarre situation where a man is running to be president but refuses to directly tell us why we should prefer him over the frontrunner. In the end, it might not have mattered in any case. Negative partisanship is the driving force in American politics more than anything else, and Trump's ability to make liberals seethe apparently earned him so much goodwill that Republicans will vote for him no matter how many elections he loses.
It seems like Trump isn't going to appear at the Republican debate, which will likely turn the thing into an irrelevant snooze fest. Christie will probably attack Trump and the other candidates will likely rush to his defense, which will only further solidify the current dynamics. At this point the most interesting thing that's happened is Ramaswamy's mini-surge to third place which really shows how boring this whole affair is. Him, Scott, and and maybe Haley are essentially just running to be vice president, while other candidates like Pence, Christie, and the rest are doing the old presidential-campaign-as-glorified-press-conference thing, or have too much of an ego to see they have no shot.
The only thing that could make the current race entertaining is if Biden or Trump randomly drop dead, or if Trump is convicted of sufficiently serious crimes. Those would certainly be shockers, but the ramifications are hard to forecast before they actually happen.
I think there's got to be a twist. They wouldn't give us two great seasons in a row and then bomb the third entirely.
I mean, the twist is obvious isn’t it?
Trump wins a majority of pledged delegates in the primaries. He then gets handily convicted of multiple felonies, and is sentenced to what amounts to life in prison right before the Republican National Convention. Hilarity ensues.
I agree that that's a big twist. An even funnier development would be that a red state governor offers Trump sanctuary and has the state guard 'protect' Trump from the FBI, such that a standoff occurs.
To be honest, my guess is that even that would be anticlimactic. Trump would spend the rest of the campaign in red states that would refuse to execute the arrest warrants of other states. The wheels of the justice system would turn deliberately slowly. Even then FBI and US Marshalls don't want a shooting war with some red state national guard and police, that's actual civil war shit, so they would agree to some kind of 'delay in enforcement action' until February 2025 or something. If he won, he'd pardon himself from federal charges and order the secret service to physically prevent his arrest. His presidency would then amount to some weird game where the NYT claims he's surely going to be arrested next time he steps into New York but never is.
Surely the Secret Service cannot lawfully follow orders to break they law. They are after all a law enforcement wing and sworn to uphold the law above all else. I can’t imagine there not being something explicit like “if the president orders you to break the law you must refuse”.
And putting all that aside for a moment: the Secret Service are, what, several dozen guys in suits with handguns? If a state police force truly wants to arrest Trump I don’t think trying to “physically prevent” it would end well for the Secret Service.
...Pretty sure there's more of them than "several dozen", and they have a whole lot more than handguns.
Well regardless, there’s at most hundreds or let’s even say thousands. Like, there are major cities with 10 times as many police officers. And all tacticool swat team style weapons, armored vehicles, etc.
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