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Indeed. Whether it be from an in-person or online approach, chicks tend to be incredibly passive and aggressively unhelpful when it comes to initial conversations and setting-up the first date, so you have to drive the conversation and—even if they're interested—you often end-up having to play scheduling battleship:
(1) Some girls are interested in meeting up and are passive and unhelpful because that's just how they are and have always been when it comes to dating (since guys like you will do all the lifting). (2) Some girls are passive and unhelpful because they're lukewarm about meeting up, but they want to keep you as a back-up plan or as an orbiter. (3) Some girls are passive and unhelpful and have little to no interest in meeting-up but continue leading you on because they get a kick out of the attention, tormenting guys and seeing guys pine after them.
Prior to if/when she actually shows up for a first date, you don't know ex-ante if a girl is in category (1), (2), or (3). Of course, at any moment and unbeknownst to you at the time, you can get relegated from her being (1) to (2) or (3) if a misstep gives her the ick, some other guy beats you to the punch and bangs her first, or for no reason at all.
The person in that convo is not interested in meeting up, full stop. I understand there's some very small probability of converting that convo to a hookup (your linked comment on conditional probabilities feels about right) but it just seems so not worth the effort. Even if that's the only match someone gets, and even if they're devoting 100% of their time to getting laid, their time is better spent fixing issues earlier up in the pipeline, like making themselves more desirable or finding where to meet more enthusiastic women, than being doomed to these endless demoralizing convos.
I definitely agree that's the case. Back when I was in my grinding OLD phase, I fairly quickly learned that generally if a girl isn't giving you a Yes by two attempts to secure an in-person meeting, you're about to embark on an exercise in frustration. Whether it be due to their disinterest in you, general flakiness, scheduling difficulties or whatever else.
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