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Notes -
Trudeau accuses India in killing of Sikh leader on Canadian soil
First of all, I want to state that my epistemic status is huh, rather an informed opinion, but I struggle to think of anyone in a better position on The Motte to discuss this, so bear with me.
India has had its share of irredentists, separatists and good old fashioned terrorists over the years. You have the Maoists still lurking in the north east, playing hot and cold with the government via their jungle boogaloo. Islamic terrorism was a serious issue in 2010s, though it's died down. There were the Tamil Tigers down south, who proved a severe PITA for a decade or so, and then the Khalistanis, who have been largely neutered in-country but find refuge in the numerous, prosperous Sikh diaspora abroad.
The last two have had the dubious distinction of getting confirmed kills on two Indian Prime Ministers (relatives to boot).
Khalistan is the supposed homeland of the Sikh peoples, largely surrounding Punjab in the west. Unable to get it during the original Partition of India, they waged a brutal war against the Indian government for decades, peaking in the 70s and 80s. There were quite a few pogroms and riots, with Hindu on Sikh violence in the rest of India, and vice versa in their population centers.
These days, the movement is moribund within India itself, most young Sikhs don't really pay it any heed, and the older aren't the demographic to go planting bombs for the large part. Sikhs are well integrated into Indian society, and haven't had that consistent friction that the Muslims have had with their Hindu co-ethnics.
Not that you'd know this abroad. Much like IRA sympathizers hanging around in New Jersey bars, the exodus of Sikhs in the 70s and 80s ossified in amber a large migrant population with a grudge to bear against the Indian government.
I'd draw a distinction between these first-wave migrants, and a more recent influx of Sikhs who are drawn more by the prospects of making it big in Canada, or the West in general, rather than any real grievance.
While Khalistan is dead in the water, it's a popular rallying cry there, with Western governments treating it with a mixture of bemused tolerance and kid-gloves for fear of pissing off the strong Sikh voting bloc. Speaking ill of them is, from what I've heard, a surefire way of losing a narrow election, but they're otherwise model citizens and nobody wants to press the issue.
Now, Modi stands accused of the shooting of this dude sometime in June, when he was shot by unidentified gunmen in the parking lot of a gurdwara in Surrey. If there's more substance to the accusation, they haven't been made public, but the heads of state have met to hash it out.
From what I can tell, Modi's response was "we didn't do it, but if it happened, he had it coming", strongly protesting the accusations while demanding Canada be less lenient in harboring terrorists.
Modi also stands accused of the assassination in Lahore of another Khalistan leader, not that anyone particularly cared at the time, and that's just the usual India-Pakistan bhai-bhai at play.
That's the gist of it, on one hand, we have the fact that India has largely refrained from extraterritorial assassinations, certainly not to the degree that the US, Russia or Israel are fond of. I struggle to think of a single example, not that I'm an expert.
On the other, who the fuck else has a motive to whack the dude? I don't think relations between India and Canada are bad enough for the latter to make entirely unfounded accusations, and they've even roped in a few other countries like the UK and US to bring diplomatic pressure to bear. The Head of Foreign Intelligence for India was kicked out from Canada, and some bloke named Oliver Sylvester was the tit to that tat.
I'd wager 50% odds that India was responsible based on the balance of evidence, and I wonder if this will be a flash in the pan that peters out when the Sikhs are mollified, or if Canada really wants to pick a fight with an otherwise neutral/positively inclined major nation.
But if you're curious, this means zilch in terms of impact on Modi's popularity of home, you think supporters of a strongman are going to be mad when he strongmans? Even the libs over at /r/India who foam at the mouth at the sight of Modi are of the opinion he had it coming.
It seems likely that India was behind it (as you say, nobody else has a motive; unlike Islamists, Hindu nationalists aren’t generally hardcore enough to carry out this kind of ‘direct action’ without government sanction on foreign soil), apparently the Canadian opposition has been shown the evidence and has found it convincing enough, as have foreign governments.
I’m surprised, given the context, that the Indians did it though. Khalistan independence isn’t a major threat, the movement has been neutered in the way you describe, and so this guy wasn’t capable of causing real trouble anymore. The only reason to do it was national pride. Perhaps Indian intelligence is becoming more culturally Pakistani.
Still, the US takes international political assassinations on North American ground very seriously, there’s a reason the Russians are happy to go full polonium in all of Western Europe (most notably the UK) but haven’t dared a single unambiguous (ie signed) extrajudicial assassination on American or indeed Canadian soil. The reaction will be tempered so as not to get Modi to posture with Putin for a big photo op and trading partnership, but I think it’s still pretty serious and surprising.
Even Erdogan isn’t hellbent on assassinating Gulen in Pennsylvania, it’s not worth it. I wonder why the Indians thought it was worth it with this guy.
If we can use the words of the Indian Political Commentariat (at least the ones who did not predict a landslide win for INC in 2019) as a proxy for what the Indian Government thinks.
Punjab is a border state. Even worse, on the other side lies Pakistan. Separatism in Punjab is believed to have received significant support from the Pakistani ISI as part of their sponsorship of cross border terrorism in India like in Kashmir. There have been seriously worrying flare ups regarding this issue in the past culminating to the assassination of a Prime Minister.
Punjab, while rich compared to many other Indian states has stagnated in recent decades. Unemployment among the youth, cross border drug and weapons trade. It is addicted to Environmentally damaging state subsidized agriculture that is not sustainable or scalable if you want to reach first world living standards and industrial capacity. But, the status quo is a pretty comfortable one for a few rich Punjabi landlords/middlemen leaching off the rest of the state. The system of state subsidy came into place due to governmental efforts to guard against potential food scarcity that's no longer an issue. They now produce too much rice or wheat.
Attempts by the Indian government to move away from this led to the 2020-2021 Farmer Protests. The state lies right next to Delhi, the Indian capital, which they blockaded for months. The proximity allows them to wield disproportionate influence on Indian politics. Us folks down South can't march to the Capital to protest on a whim.
Despite the protest starting for other reasons Separatists who had found refuge in Canada and other countries quickly found the discontent to be a useful lever to push their goals. The Dollar even Canadian goes a long way in a poor country like India. A middle class family in Canada or the US is filty rich in India and can gets disproportionate financial leverage.
The Indian Government squashed the bill despite the need for agricultural reforms to avoid it being used to inflame Separatism. We have had serious material and political consequences as a result of a bunch of Canadians still stuck in the 1980s.
And, as @self_made_human said Indian think tankers seem to be of the opinion "Doubtful that we did it, but good riddance".
I strongly endorse this, as a rather fair and even assessment.
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