Transnational Thursdays 20

Happy 20 TTs guys.

I’ll be trying something new with this one and changing the format so the top level post only contains an explanation of the thread, like we do with Wellness Wednesdays and Fun Fridays. The country-specific coverage will be placed in separate comments where people can respond to them directly, or start their own threads as separate comments. This is part of my hope that long term this will become more of a permanent thread that sustains beyond me, because I likely won’t be around long term. In the short term as well, I’ve been trying to produce a lot of the user content but there will be weeks where I'm too busy, and it would be nice to have a stickied thread where people who want to can still chat foreign policy without me.

So:

This is a weekly thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or IR history. I usually start off with coverage of some current events from a mix of countries I follow personally and countries I think the forum might be interested in. In the past I've noticed good results from covering countries that users here live in, and having them chime in with more comprehensive responses. In that spirit I'll probably try to offer more snippets of western news (but you'll still get a lot of the global south). I don't follow present day European politics all that much so you'll have to fill in the blanks for me.

But also, no need to use the prompts here, feel free to talk about completely unmentioned countries, or skip country coverage entirely and chat about ongoing dynamics like wars or trade deals. You can even skip the present day and talk about IR history, or just whatever you’re reading at the moment - consider it very free form and open to everyone.

Jump in the discussion.

No email address required.

Stefferi Chief Suomiposter 7mo ago

Finland:

Much of the Finnish political debate this week was focused on the situation in Sweden regarding gang crime, but a locally notable affair was several Church of Finland parishes criticizing the government's various cuts.

THE CHURCH TAKES SIDES: The Evangelical-Lutheran Church of Finland shares certain features with the labor movement, discussed in the last post. (Heretofore I’m going to just call it “the Church,” as it is usually called in Finland, even if this annoys those belonging to smaller churches, like me.)

Like the labor movement, it continues to command a high level of membership, even if this has been falling and most of that membership is not particularly committed, to put it mildly. Like the labor movement, it is bonded from the hip to the society and the state – more of a spiritual facet of a general concept of Finnish nationality than a religious movement, at least at times. Finns often naturally expect the Church to follow whatever social trends society decides to follow.

Now, it has demonstrated another concurrence with the unions; a willingness to criticize the new government. At least some of the parishes have made quite explicit appeals for the government to stop its austerity, calling out politicians by name. While it’s been known that the Church’s doctrine on economic issues would tend more to the left than towards the right, it’s still exceptional for church institutions to make a direct reference to the govt like this. Luther’s Two Kingdoms doctrine still looms large in Finnish consciousness, even if many of Luther’s other ideas have implicitly or explicitly been junked.

Context

Soriek 7mo ago

The United Kingdom

The Tories are having an annual Conservative Party Conference. Remarkably, Liz Truss seems to be still advocating for more tax cuts (specifically corporate taxes), despite the fact that the country’s pension funds got margin called and she lost her position as leader of the nation the last time she tried that. Priti Patel has been beating the same drum lately.

Mr Sunak has declined to say if taxes will be cut before the next election and said his focus is on cutting inflation. His chancellor Jeremy Hunt has ruled out tax cuts this year.

Other issues PM Sunak has yet to give a final response on are whether construction of the HS2, or the high speed rail line between Birmingham to Manchester, will go ahead. The idea as I understand it is to try to fight concentration of wealth and jobs in London and invest more in the poorer North, though it comes at apparently very high cost. Speaking on transit drama, following cost saving staff cuts, thousands of members of the Rail, Maritime and Transport (RMT) union were planning a large scale strike. Apparently negotiations were successful on working conditions and the strike has now been called off. A separate strike by Aslef train drivers seems to be still in motion.

The Guardian asks “Who would replace Rishi Sunak as Tory leader if he loses the election?” and offers short snippets of the maneuverings as of late done by Suella Braverman, Priti Patel, Kemi Badenoch, Penny Mordaunt, James Cleverly, Tom Tugendhat, and…Liz Truss, still trying I guess.

SSCReader Soriek 7mo ago

As an update and as expected it is now confirmed the connection of HS2 to Manchester will now be cancelled. Not that it was any huge predictive power of mine, and I was certainly not alone in my cynicism, but I predicted this near 13 years ago. It was always the weakest link in the plan and any cost increase along with the government always being south facing was going to be its end. When a major local authority (not Crewe) in the Midlands (that I used to work for) reached out to me to ask for advice with putting a proposal together to lobby for HS2 to run through their largest city, I told them, that I would not advise spending much on the campaign as the chances were it would never come to fruition in the first place, and even if it did it was unlikely their bid would be successful logistically. Regrettably I think they ended up spending a significant amount on said campaign regardless.

I'll go on record to predict that the promise of upgrading existing transportation infrastructure in the area using "every penny" saved by scrapping HS2 over the next decade will also almost certainly not come true either.

Germany

Reportedly relations between Germany and its allies France and Italy have been a bit distant as of late. It’s not really clear to me what’s come up with France, but a row has broader implications for the EU, especially with approving aid for Ukraine:

David McAllister, chair of the European parliament’s foreign affairs committee and a key figure in the opposition Christian Democrats party, says he is concerned that the lack of contact between the chancellor, Olaf Scholz, and the French president, Emmanuel Macron, is causing delays on key decisions on battle tanks and fighter jets, and a future trade deal with Latin America…

The view is shared in France. Georgina Wright, director of the Europe programme at the Institut Montaigne thinktank in Paris, said: “My view is, yes, relations are strained. Yes, there are key issues that they need to overcome, based on actual policy disagreement and approach. But we shouldn’t exaggerate it too much."

Things are a bit clearer with Italy:

This week, fault lines in the relationship between Berlin and Rome were also exposed, with Giorgia Meloni writing to protest against Germany’s plans to finance two migrant NGOs operating in Italy.

It was likely to have contributed to Italy’s decision to withhold agreement from a new text on reforms to EU migration laws at a summit of interior ministers in Brussels last week.

No new EU-wide agreement emerged from the wrangling between them.

Immigration has of course become the hot topic as of late, overwhelming local governments and fueling the rise of the far right Alliance for Democracy up to 20% in polls (the Christian Democrats have 30% for comparison). Germany has responded by increasing its own border controls with Poland and the Czech Republic, apparently with the consent and cooperation of the latter two countries, in order to combat human trafficking. This is apparently allowed even within the Schengen Zone, which has some wiggle room for more border processing. Also:

Earlier this month, the country’s Interior Ministry said it would postpone “until further notice” its intake of migrants coming via Italy, under a European voluntary solidarity plan.

Berlin argues it has made the largest contribution and blames Rome’s decision to withdraw from its obligations to take back asylum seekers rejected in other countries.

During remarks on Wednesday, Faeser, who is running as the candidate for Scholz’s Social Democratic Party in Hesse, called on countries on Europe’s borders – including Italy – to “better protect” those borders and “apply the procedures” laid down by Brussels.

do_something Soriek 7mo ago

this is apparently allowed even within the Schengen Zone, which has some wiggle room for more border processing.

and was done before, for example during COVID. See also https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schengen_Area#Temporary_border_controls

Soriek 7mo ago · Edited 7mo ago

Poland

Speaking of inter-European squabbles, Poland has recently been in a bit of hot water over allegations that Polish bureaucrats have accepted bribes in exchange for visas, apparently as many as 250,000. The Polish government (which prides itself on a strong anti-migrant stance) has scrambled to fire / arrest anyone involved and the EU has demanded answers..

All of this is of course made more dramatic by the upcoming election on the 15th. See last week’s commentary by @do_something for a helpful breakdown of the top three parties, the ruling PiS, the more liberal Civic Coalition, and the libertarian-nationalist Confederation. KO’s leader, former PM and President of the European Council, Donald Tusk, has tried to make as much as hay as possible out of the visa scandal. He also just held a gigantic “Million Hearts march” rally of (allegedly) over a million people in Warsaw.

Recently PiS’ rhetoric has turned seemingly pretty hostile against Ukraine - it remains to be seen whether this is just drumming up the base for an election or if the rift will continue. Despite recent tensions, Poland has now finally hammered out a deal with both Ukraine and Lithuania to expedite grain deliveries to at-need countries.

Some optimistic energy news: in contrast to Germany shutting down its nuclear power plants, Poland seems to be going the opposite direction and has now completed an agreement with the United States for the construction of a new nuclear power plant in warsaw.

See last week’s commentary by @do_something for a helpful breakdown of the top three parties, the ruling PiS, the more liberal Civic Coalition, and the libertarian-nationalist Confederation.

Feel free to ping me if anyone wants more frustrated biased rants on some topic concerning Poland!

That was planned before, signing was just before elections. I will wait to be excited. They notably failed at building coal power plant (Ostrołęka C, 250 000 000$ wasted)

PS power plant will not be in Warsaw, plan is more reasonable.

Slovakia

In a follow up to this primer to the Slovakian election, to no one’s surprise the Social Democrats, ousted in 2020, came back in first place. If they pull off a coalition, it will return the anti-American, pro-Russian Robert Fico to power. They have still only obtained 22% of the vote and were trailed by the pro-western Progressive Party at 18%, but SMER has several coalition partner options among both leftist and pro-Russia parties. @georgioz offers some more details here.

Ecuador

The US is reportedly sending military assistance to Ecuador following the assassination of one of their Presidential candidates, presumably by one of the cartels. This may be a move the cartels come to regret, as the guy had zero chance of winning the election and they were mainly trying to intimidate any other politicians from following suit, so hopefully this deters future political violence:

The maritime agreement allows U.S. military vessels to be present in the waters off the northwestern coast of South America, which Colombian drug cartels use to move cocaine. The ability to move military vessels into the area will "strengthen cooperative law enforcement activities and build mutual capacity to prevent and combat illicit transnational maritime activity," according to State.

The second agreement was a less common one, according to Adam Isacson, who heads defense oversight at the Washington Office on Latin America and has worked on Latin American issues since 1994.

Status of forces agreements outline the terms by which members of a foreign military, in this case the Defense Department, can operate or are expected to conduct themselves while in another country.

"That doesn't mean we're doing it, but it means we can and it means that they're making a very clear signal to us that they want more us involved," [US Representative Dan] Crenshaw said.

Ecuador’s state oil company Petroecuador is planning to open up 15 new oil wells, despite the public voting with a commanding 59% to prohibit future drilling. If this seems rather undemocratic, it’s worth a reminder the President Lasso disbanded the legislature a few months ago and has been ruling by decree since.

Colombia

Colombia recently negotiated a 10 month, bilateral ceasefire with Estado Mayor Central, or EMC, the remaining active splinter of the revolutionary guerilla group FARC that finalized a peace deal with the government in 2016. During the ceasefire both parties will be in active negotiation to secure a similar, lasting peace deal. If you count the conflict with EMC as a continuation of the government’s war with FARC, then ending it would be an incredible milestone - the conflict “has run for almost six decades and killed almost half a million people.”

This will be building on Petro’s successful peace negotiations with ELN, the largest active rebel group, secured earlier this year. I’ve mentioned before that Petro’s "Total Peace" initiative seems to have mostly given the cartels breathing room to fight each other more and expand operations, so it’s worth noting that it seems to be making steady progress with Colombia’s other major security concern, the revolutionary guerilla groups (often these two concerns are interlinked).

It should be noted this will be the second such ceasefire, the first was broken due to EMC killing four indigenous teenagers who tried to escape forcible recruitment. Things could fall apart again if they can’t manage to avoid horrifying, national-headline stuff like that.

Speaking of indigenous rights, some 12,000 indigenous Colombians under a group called “Minga” have been protesting in the capital against violence against their communities:

The Global Witness advocacy group recently designated Colombia as the most dangerous country in the world for land defenders and environmental activists last year – and a disproportionate number of those targeted leaders come from Indigenous communities

According to statistics from the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), more than 37,000 people across the country were affected by violence between January and September of this year.

More than 43,000 others also were displaced by threats from armed groups or open fighting, the UN agency found. Colombian human rights watchdog Indepaz puts the displacement figure at more than twice that.

However, both organisations agree that Indigenous communities make up roughly half of all those displaced or affected by the violence, despite representing just 3.5 percent of the population.

These protests are common in Colombia but this is the first such one to happen under Petro’s Administration. As Colombia’s first-ever leftist President he received substantial support from indigenous voters and was given a stretch of time to prove his new approach, but people’s patience may be wearing down.

Bolivia

A follow up to last week’s post mentioning that Bolivia’s former socialist President Morales has announced he’s running for re-election. True to prediction, his former protege and Finance Minister Luis Acre does not seem to be stepping down from the Presidency, which seems to be leading to an internal feud. The Movement for Socialism party has won every national election in like 18 years so at this point likely the only thing that can stop the party in the short term is a situation exactly like this:

Their rivalry has become increasingly pointed and public. Morales believes the government is trying to smear him and perhaps legally rule him out of contention for 2025. He has been highly critical of Arce’s policies, while legislators loyal to him have become a kind of opposition in the legislative assembly, voting against the government and trying to remove some of Arce’s ministers from their positions. Meanwhile the two factions have traded accusations of corruption, links to drug trafficking and treason…

if both Arce and Morales run, they will split the MAS vote. Even if only one of them runs, their battle might leave whoever winds up being the candidate too tarnished to win another majority. In broad strokes, Arce could lose some of the rural workers who idolize Morales, while Morales could lose some of the middle-class voters who are put off by his radicalism. That would hand an electoral opportunity to the opposition, which is otherwise weak and fragmented, with no single leader who could unite voters at a national level.

More fundamentally, though, the rupture between Arce and Morales threatens the coherence of the once-irresistible bloc of social organizations that support the MAS. Aside from a few—such as the coca-grower unions of the tropics, which resolutely support Morales—most of those organizations are now experiencing internal divisions and even schisms. Even if the official leaderships continue to support Arce and the government, parallel leaderships loyal to Morales are emerging. One striking example of this occurred in late August, when a meeting in El Alto of the CSUTCB, the main organization of Bolivia’s rural workers, descended into violence that left hundreds injured. Afterward, two men announced competing claims to leadership of the group: one backed by Arce and given official authority; the other embraced by Morales and now threatening to mount blockades in a bid to recover the confederation.

Separately, former President Gonzalo Sánchez de Lozada of the National Revolutionary Movement (don’t get it twisted, actually a neoliberal party) has agreed to a settlement in US courts for the families of people killed by the government protesting the country exporting its natural gas. Apparently this is one of the first court cases of its kind and raises interesting precedent for the future.

Mali

From independence onward Mali has had trouble with an insurgency from the Taureg ethnic group that lives in the North (and is also spread across parts of the countries in North Africa, a little like the way different Kurdish groups are divided across several nations). The area they wanted, Azawad or “Brown Mali,” is the upper half of the nation, the deeply inhospitable part of the country that sticks up into the Sahara Desert. However, the conflict is complicated by the fact that there are crucial, mostly undeveloped resources there as well, including possible oil and gas from the Taoudeni Basin that overlaps north Mali and neighboring Mauritania.

You may have heard of the Tauregs before associated with Gaddafi - he had this notion they were super badass desert warriors and recruited a bunch of them for his Islamic Legion, and then later his personal guard. After he was overthrown in 2011 a huge influx of armed and battle hardened tauregs came back to Mali and joined the People's Movement for the Liberation of Azawad and took the conflict to its peak in 2012. The government ultimately won and a lasting peace deal was established in 2015. Part of the agreement was that 20% of the revenues from oil and gas harvested in the Azawad region would be reinvested there as well.

However, fighting has flared up again with the Coordination of the Azawad Movement (a somewhat-successor organization to the MPLA) since August. Last week Mali reported “attacks on three army posts in two days” and has now redeployed the Army to the North to directly face down the restored insurgency.

To nobody’s huge surprise, the Junta has also now delayed elections, originally supposed to happen in February to an as of yet undetermined time in the future. Opposition parties (funny they still keep these around tbh) have been protesting the move in the capital.

The Democratic Republic of the Congo

The DRC will be having elections this December. In August Current President Felix Tshisekedi (say that five times fast) declared he will be running again. His rule thus far has been a rough one, as the DRC has dealt with economic downturn and constant conflict with the Rwanda-supported M23 movement in the country’s east (and a whole bunch of smaller rebel groups to boot). Given this pretty dismal first term there was some uncertainty over whether his supporters, the “Sacred Union” would rally around him, but as of Monday his coalition has has announced they will support his bid.

Former Exxon Mobile Exec Martin Fayulu, Tshisekedi’s opponent from the 2018 election, has announced he will run again as well following rumors that he would boycott the election (the last one was credibly stolen). A popular Nobel Laureate and anti-sexual violence advocate named Dr. Denis Mukwege has just announced he is running. He has widespread name recognition but no party support as of yet so it’s hard to say if he has any viability. Other smaller name competitors include: “Moise Katumbi, the former governor of Congo’s richest province; and Augustin Matata Ponyo, a former prime minister.”

Human Rights Watch has already raised the alarm about the government arresting opposition party leaders and banning their demonstrations, so this may be a dicey one. Tshisekedi’s own ascension was the DRC’s first ever peaceful transfer of power (and quite a few people still argue his election was fraudulent), since he took the spot from Joseph Kabila, who inherited it after his father Laurent was killed, who inherited it after Mobutu was toppled in the first Congo War, who himself took power following a coup against Lumumba. Needless to say, if the DRC is to build a future as a country with a stable political regime, the outcome of the election will be very relevant. Both the West and China will be keeping a close eye due to the DRC being such a critical source of cobalt and other minerals.

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