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Notes -
I'm glad this lost despite the overwhelming support from most institutions but like all one-sided election results I get the impression (anecdotally) that people are reading too much into the result - on the left that Australians are all racist or heartless or at least misinformed, on the right that we've heroically stood up to say no to wokism or some such.
As much as I'd like to believe that Australians are categorically opposed to this kind of thing, the voice was polling 60-40 or better earlier in the year, so its failure probably comes down to swing voters being unhappy with the details - or lack thereof. I believe the median voter wants to help Aborigines - but they don't want to spend too much money on it or give a political blank check to the government.
I think there's some degree of a respectability cascade going on, where SJ's hold over the populace through fear and guilt has been shaken and being conservative is starting to look more palatable and less like being a moral mutant. Note how terrified the Liberals were of actually taking the "no" side early on, but now Dutton's saying this is a victory over activists.
I don't think this is the entirety of the reason for the vote we got; there's causation both ways there, with the vote itself (and the polling) damaging the apparent SJ consensus - there's a reason I said it "seem[s] to have emboldened people" - and the proposal and Yes campaign sure did stuff up a lot. But it's got me hopeful. Still not really worth the price of having a giant CW fight, but silver linings.
I know we aren't supposed to make low effort posts, but you make sense, and your analysis convinced me to change my mind on this issue.
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That kind of opportunistic "run with the hare and hunt with the hounds" reaction (if the 'yes' side had won I'm sure he'd be claiming this was a victory for equality or the likes) reminds me of the pithy and tart bon mot by e.e. cummings:
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If the referendum had been just to acknowledge indigenous people in the constitution, I feel it'd have gotten over the line. Tying it to adding another body for Indigenous advocacy to the untold score of them that already exist was the issue.
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