naraburns nihil supernum
2yr ago
(text post)
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Israel-Gaza Megathread #1
This is a megathread for any posts on the conflict between (so far, and so far as I know) Hamas and the Israeli government, as well as related geopolitics. Culture War thread rules apply.
I've been thinking: what's the Palestinian path to victory? Ie. what's the course of action that would lead to an establishment of a from-the-river-to-the-sea Palestine? (Not focusing here on the desirability of that path etc.)
Any way one looks at it, the only way to get at this would be a war with Israel's neighbors joining in. Of course this hasn't happened since Yom Kippur War, and much of Israel's foreign and security policy has been successfully trying to make sure this doesn't happen. Egypt and Jordan have peace treaties with Israel and reasonably non-hostile governments (with their own reasons to hope that the situation stays stable), Lebanon and Syria are destabilized, Saudis are too dependent on US and too focused elsewhere to be a threat.
However, as far as I've understood, Egyptian and Jordanian populations continue to be strongly pro-Palestine, Jordan has a huge amount of Palestinian refugees, and Egypt continues to have many problems that make it a potential flash point. Would a sufficiently atrocious response by Israel have a possibility of leading to revolutions and strongly anti-Israel regimes taking power? Might Lebanon and Syria be stabilized, with Lebanon falling under Hezbollah rule? If all of Israel's neighbors started another big war, can Israel repeat the same as in 1947, 1968 and 1973? The traditional answer would be "probably", but the state of IDF currently looks like there's a lot of mythology and hot air underpinning that proposition.
I genuinely have no idea about these things, which is why I'm asking here.
With Russia's attack against Ukraine, the second superpower was revived
And we cheer for China as well, may they conquer Taiwan, break the noses of the Americans
And yet the war will still be a show until America joins the fight
May the world war burst into flame and bring back the memories
The gameplan is to strike at the heart of the problem. It's unwavering US support for Israel that props them up, that lets them behave so heavyhandedly, annexing, settling, bombing other countries. US tech is vital to the Israeli military. US diplomatic and soft power is very helpful for Israeli diplomacy.
Russia and China will do the heavy lifting, winning WW3. Palestine can possibly help out by motivating the rest of the Muslim world to help the Axis of Resistance, they're on the same side as Iran, Russia and China after all. Without Israel's superpower ally, they think they can win. Their position would be very much advanced if the US was out of the game, even though Israel retains its nuclear weapons.
Now they've attacked Israel semi-successfully, they've lowered the prestige of Western militaries and weapon-systems, they've diverted US attention and resources from other fronts, they're sucking up US munitions (that's what's in the US military aid boost).
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Notes -
I've been thinking: what's the Palestinian path to victory? Ie. what's the course of action that would lead to an establishment of a from-the-river-to-the-sea Palestine? (Not focusing here on the desirability of that path etc.)
Any way one looks at it, the only way to get at this would be a war with Israel's neighbors joining in. Of course this hasn't happened since Yom Kippur War, and much of Israel's foreign and security policy has been successfully trying to make sure this doesn't happen. Egypt and Jordan have peace treaties with Israel and reasonably non-hostile governments (with their own reasons to hope that the situation stays stable), Lebanon and Syria are destabilized, Saudis are too dependent on US and too focused elsewhere to be a threat.
However, as far as I've understood, Egyptian and Jordanian populations continue to be strongly pro-Palestine, Jordan has a huge amount of Palestinian refugees, and Egypt continues to have many problems that make it a potential flash point. Would a sufficiently atrocious response by Israel have a possibility of leading to revolutions and strongly anti-Israel regimes taking power? Might Lebanon and Syria be stabilized, with Lebanon falling under Hezbollah rule? If all of Israel's neighbors started another big war, can Israel repeat the same as in 1947, 1968 and 1973? The traditional answer would be "probably", but the state of IDF currently looks like there's a lot of mythology and hot air underpinning that proposition.
I genuinely have no idea about these things, which is why I'm asking here.
They've put it down in song: https://youtube.com/watch?v=RgdxKgxJyuw
The gameplan is to strike at the heart of the problem. It's unwavering US support for Israel that props them up, that lets them behave so heavyhandedly, annexing, settling, bombing other countries. US tech is vital to the Israeli military. US diplomatic and soft power is very helpful for Israeli diplomacy.
Russia and China will do the heavy lifting, winning WW3. Palestine can possibly help out by motivating the rest of the Muslim world to help the Axis of Resistance, they're on the same side as Iran, Russia and China after all. Without Israel's superpower ally, they think they can win. Their position would be very much advanced if the US was out of the game, even though Israel retains its nuclear weapons.
Now they've attacked Israel semi-successfully, they've lowered the prestige of Western militaries and weapon-systems, they've diverted US attention and resources from other fronts, they're sucking up US munitions (that's what's in the US military aid boost).
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