naraburns nihil supernum
7mo ago
(text post)
28970 thread views
Israel-Gaza Megathread #1
This is a megathread for any posts on the conflict between (so far, and so far as I know) Hamas and the Israeli government, as well as related geopolitics. Culture War thread rules apply.
Alright a little war gaming here. Suppose Hamas launched these attacks in order to provoke Israel into invading Gaza. Having stockpiled weapons received from Iran including ATGM and S2A missles, has chosen Gaza as their battlefield, the middle eastern Stalingrad. The IDF goes into Gaza and takes a real beating, close urban warfare diminishing Israeli technological advantage.
With the IDF being bogged down in Gaza Hezbollah attacks from the north, or Israel makes some preemptive strikes, in any case Iran gets involved, mines the straight of Hormuz. US joins the fray and gets dragged in, China sees its opportunity and launches its invasion of Taiwan. Oil skyrockets and the US enters a hard recession. US/NATO weapon stockpiles and strategic oil reserve depleted, makes for a rough start to WW3.
What do you think happens domestically (in the US) and globally? I don't think there is enough political unity nor appetite for the US population to enter into another war. Will any other countries enter the conflict? IMO this would not end well for US hegemony.
In the short term it is going to be hilarious to see the Republicans be hypocrites, against Ukraine aid but fervently for Israeli aid and support.
Edit: Also curious what the mottizens think on how these current events, and the aforementioned hypotheticals, will affect the US 2024 election.
It's not hypocrisy to be in favor of supplying Israel but not Ukraine. I think our alliance with Israel is dumb and one-sided but we are actually allies in contrast to Ukraine where we don't really owe them anything.
It would take a long time to prepare for an invasion of Taiwan so unless they already have everything ready to go (and the CIA has completely dropped the ball and missed it) then I don't see how they would be able to do that before Israel squishes Hamas like a grape. Even if they managed to take Taiwan it's not like the US has to surrender because they captured the flag, they can just continue to blockade China from a distance indefinitely. It wouldn't be the first time somebody took the "Americans are too weak to accept casualties fighting in a distant war" gamble and historically that hasn't worked out well.
The US would suffer a massive recession if Chinese goods were suddenly cut off but oil wouldn't be a major problem. The US is already energy self-sufficient and China couldn't stop them from importing as much as they want from Mexico and the Middle East.
We would probably have an official recession because productivity fell leading to lower gdp but I don’t think War with China would feel like a real recession. Wal-Mart junk shelves would be empty. But the financial flow of dollar to China for crap would stop so it would actually improve the US balance sheet. And jobs would be plentiful. It’s just people wouldn’t be getting their Amazon packages.
How many supply chains depend on Chinese parts at this point? If you can't buy a $25 drill/driver because Harbor Freight stops getting shipments of them from China, that's fine; the $50 drill is worth it anyway. If you can't buy a $25K car or get a job assembling $25K cars because the assembly lines got throttled down while they figured out how to re-source a bunch of little @$25 parts shipped from China, that could be a giant pain.
Don’t disagree it would be bumpy. A lot of people would need to innovate. Germany would likely boom as would a bunch of Europe which has a lot of machine part suppliers.
We would have shortages for a time. A lot like COVID while we figure shit out.
But it wouldn’t be doomerism. China I believe would take it harder unless their navy is capable of operating far from their shores as they wouldn’t have enough energy or raw materials.
This website is a place for people who want to move past shady thinking and test their ideas in a
court of people who don't all share the same biases. Our goal is to
optimize for light, not heat; this is a group effort, and all commentators are asked to do their part.
The weekly Culture War threads host the most
controversial topics and are the most visible aspect of The Motte. However, many other topics are
appropriate here. We encourage people to post anything related to science, politics, or philosophy;
if in doubt, post!
Check out The Vault for an archive of old quality posts.
You are encouraged to crosspost these elsewhere.
Why are you called The Motte?
A motte is a stone keep on a raised earthwork common in early medieval fortifications. More pertinently,
it's an element in a rhetorical move called a "Motte-and-Bailey",
originally identified by
philosopher Nicholas Shackel. It describes the tendency in discourse for people to move from a controversial
but high value claim to a defensible but less exciting one upon any resistance to the former. He likens
this to the medieval fortification, where a desirable land (the bailey) is abandoned when in danger for
the more easily defended motte. In Shackel's words, "The Motte represents the defensible but undesired
propositions to which one retreats when hard pressed."
On The Motte, always attempt to remain inside your defensible territory, even if you are not being pressed.
New post guidelines
If you're posting something that isn't related to the culture war, we encourage you to post a thread for it.
A submission statement is highly appreciated, but isn't necessary for text posts or links to largely-text posts
such as blogs or news articles; if we're unsure of the value of your post, we might remove it until you add a
submission statement. A submission statement is required for non-text sources (videos, podcasts, images).
Culture war posts go in the culture war thread; all links must either include a submission statement or
significant commentary. Bare links without those will be removed.
Jump in the discussion.
No email address required.
Notes -
Alright a little war gaming here. Suppose Hamas launched these attacks in order to provoke Israel into invading Gaza. Having stockpiled weapons received from Iran including ATGM and S2A missles, has chosen Gaza as their battlefield, the middle eastern Stalingrad. The IDF goes into Gaza and takes a real beating, close urban warfare diminishing Israeli technological advantage.
With the IDF being bogged down in Gaza Hezbollah attacks from the north, or Israel makes some preemptive strikes, in any case Iran gets involved, mines the straight of Hormuz. US joins the fray and gets dragged in, China sees its opportunity and launches its invasion of Taiwan. Oil skyrockets and the US enters a hard recession. US/NATO weapon stockpiles and strategic oil reserve depleted, makes for a rough start to WW3.
What do you think happens domestically (in the US) and globally? I don't think there is enough political unity nor appetite for the US population to enter into another war. Will any other countries enter the conflict? IMO this would not end well for US hegemony.
In the short term it is going to be hilarious to see the Republicans be hypocrites, against Ukraine aid but fervently for Israeli aid and support.
Edit: Also curious what the mottizens think on how these current events, and the aforementioned hypotheticals, will affect the US 2024 election.
It's not hypocrisy to be in favor of supplying Israel but not Ukraine. I think our alliance with Israel is dumb and one-sided but we are actually allies in contrast to Ukraine where we don't really owe them anything.
It would take a long time to prepare for an invasion of Taiwan so unless they already have everything ready to go (and the CIA has completely dropped the ball and missed it) then I don't see how they would be able to do that before Israel squishes Hamas like a grape. Even if they managed to take Taiwan it's not like the US has to surrender because they captured the flag, they can just continue to blockade China from a distance indefinitely. It wouldn't be the first time somebody took the "Americans are too weak to accept casualties fighting in a distant war" gamble and historically that hasn't worked out well.
The US would suffer a massive recession if Chinese goods were suddenly cut off but oil wouldn't be a major problem. The US is already energy self-sufficient and China couldn't stop them from importing as much as they want from Mexico and the Middle East.
We would probably have an official recession because productivity fell leading to lower gdp but I don’t think War with China would feel like a real recession. Wal-Mart junk shelves would be empty. But the financial flow of dollar to China for crap would stop so it would actually improve the US balance sheet. And jobs would be plentiful. It’s just people wouldn’t be getting their Amazon packages.
How many supply chains depend on Chinese parts at this point? If you can't buy a $25 drill/driver because Harbor Freight stops getting shipments of them from China, that's fine; the $50 drill is worth it anyway. If you can't buy a $25K car or get a job assembling $25K cars because the assembly lines got throttled down while they figured out how to re-source a bunch of little @$25 parts shipped from China, that could be a giant pain.
Don’t disagree it would be bumpy. A lot of people would need to innovate. Germany would likely boom as would a bunch of Europe which has a lot of machine part suppliers.
We would have shortages for a time. A lot like COVID while we figure shit out.
But it wouldn’t be doomerism. China I believe would take it harder unless their navy is capable of operating far from their shores as they wouldn’t have enough energy or raw materials.
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link