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Notes -
Which aspects of what happened were intentionally part of the plan?
I think there’s a case to be made that they didn’t think they’d get as far as they did, but in any case, how far did they think they’d get? Locations of military bases near Gaza are public information and well known to Hamas, if they had wanted to limit themselves to military targets only, they could have.
On the other hand, the degree of organization raises more questions. If it’s just “the elite troops trained by Iran opened the fence and stormed the border posts, then random 17 year olds with guns drove through and began killing civilians” that doesn’t square with operatives who landed by paraglided and started killing civilians, who would presumably be in the former category and who would have needed some training. And beyond a handful of border posts, there doesn’t seem to have been a concerted effort to target military sites deeper into the country.
My guess is that instructions post-breach, other than the targeting of the very nearest IDF and possibly police facilities, were pretty limited but involved capturing hostages (to use in negotiations) and maybe weapons and armor. Beyond that, they’ve obviously had no issues with terrorism in the past, so it’s hard to see why civilian casualties would be a problem.
While it seems to us (and I would say is) more morally abhorrent, indiscriminately firing missiles at towns and cities is no different in terms of ambivalence to civilian casualties as telling drugged up young men to do what they want with a local civilian population.
I saw a retrieved dashcam video today from someone who was shot in their car. There's about a dozen Hamas fighters in it shooting up vehicles on the road. They're uniformed and look to have at least a basic level of coordination - so from that clip at least it looked more like an actual military action than a bunch of random teenagers with guns.
Some of them have uniforms (seemingly both their own and some stolen or copied IDF style uniforms), but others in the festival footage seem to be wearing civilian clothes.
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