naraburns nihil supernum
6mo ago
(text post)
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Israel-Gaza Megathread #1
This is a megathread for any posts on the conflict between (so far, and so far as I know) Hamas and the Israeli government, as well as related geopolitics. Culture War thread rules apply.
Negligible, unless retroactively incorporated into the story of WW3 just because it occurred around the same time.
There aren't any great powers on the side of Hamas, only Iran, and only partially. There are chances it could escalate to a war with Iran, but that would not be a world war.
The reality is: the next world war occurs either because China attacks Taiwan, or Russia invades a NATO country. The latter is... extremely unlikely.
The scenario where I can maybe see Putin being emboldened to do something like that is
Russia keeps gearing up more and more into a total war footing as the war drags on.
Ukraine's manpower gets ground down and western support doesn't keep pace with Russian escalation
Eventually the lines get broken and Russia storms through, capturing the western parts of Ukraine relatively quickly
High on victory and with a big war machine already running, Putin decides he can totally take the Baltics before America can really do anything about it and goes for it.
Agreed, likewise the inverse. Ukraine gains a decisive win on the southern front and decides that they're going to try and retake the Crimea. Russia nukes Kherson, Odessa, Melitopol, and Chaban to stave off a total collapse, and shit hits the fan.
Again, Likely scenario? No. But not totally implausible.
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Notes -
What do you guys think are the chances this becomes WW3? ngl I'm starting to get a little worried
Negligible, unless retroactively incorporated into the story of WW3 just because it occurred around the same time.
There aren't any great powers on the side of Hamas, only Iran, and only partially. There are chances it could escalate to a war with Iran, but that would not be a world war.
The reality is: the next world war occurs either because China attacks Taiwan, or Russia invades a NATO country. The latter is... extremely unlikely.
Prior to February 2022 i may have agreed but I nolonger share your optomism in this regard. The Balkans are right there.
The scenario where I can maybe see Putin being emboldened to do something like that is
Likely scenario? No. But not totally implausible.
Agreed, likewise the inverse. Ukraine gains a decisive win on the southern front and decides that they're going to try and retake the Crimea. Russia nukes Kherson, Odessa, Melitopol, and Chaban to stave off a total collapse, and shit hits the fan.
Again, Likely scenario? No. But not totally implausible.
What?
Not the one in the north, the one sitting on the narrow strip connecting Crimea to the mainland.
There are two narrow strips that do that, one has Armyansk (and Perekop), the other has Chongar/Chonhar.
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