naraburns nihil supernum
2yr ago
(text post)
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Israel-Gaza Megathread #2
This is a refreshed megathread for any posts on the conflict between (so far, and so far as I know) Hamas and the Israeli government, as well as related geopolitics. Culture War thread rules apply.
orthoxerox
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2yr ago
I'll abuse the "related geopolitics" rule and ask:
Let's imagine you're Vladimir Putin and you learn that the US and the EU will stop sending arms to Ukraine and concentrate on Israel for the next few years. Zelensky knows that as well and starts testing the idea of peace negotiations. How much do you demand?
On the one hand, any agreement that is not enforced by boots on the ground is worthless, so asking for no NATO, no anti-Russian censorship, no rehabilitation of WWII collaborators is useless. On the other hand, if you ask for additional territorial concessions, you'll get to pacify many more people that hate your guts, plus the ZSU can go molon lave while they still have materiel and force you to actually come and take it.
Israel is not a partisan issue in the US. Both parties give it unqualified support.
In theory, support for Ukraine is bipartisan as well. In practice, not so much. Ever since 2016, the Democrats have pushed the narrative that Russia is uniquely evil and must be punished. And lately, Republican support has wavered on the the wisdom of dumping hundreds of billions into the Ukraine meat grinder.
The Democrats have made warmongering in Ukraine their thing. It will be humiliating to Biden if the war ends with Russian gaining territory.
In some ways, political support for the Ukraine war feels, to me at least, like the Iraq and Afghanistan wars. It was clear that the Democrats were against them, loudly even, by 2006 or so. But after Obama was elected we didn't really pull out quickly either, culminating with the Taliban recapturing Kabul during the Biden administration after a withdrawal IIRC mostly negotiated under Trump.
It feels slimy, but like many issues in American politics, it seems like blind polarization to oppose every action of one's opponents regardless of principles. If the Republicans had been in the driver's seat, I'm sure they'd be all in on arming Ukraine and Democrats would be calling them warmongers. But the 2016 Russia stuff does somewhat complicate things as you pointed out.
I’ve made a similar argument before. There was probably a window for the Republicans to adopt this particular cause. Once Biden backed it, though, there was more political advantage in playing the heel.
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Notes -
I'll abuse the "related geopolitics" rule and ask:
Let's imagine you're Vladimir Putin and you learn that the US and the EU will stop sending arms to Ukraine and concentrate on Israel for the next few years. Zelensky knows that as well and starts testing the idea of peace negotiations. How much do you demand?
On the one hand, any agreement that is not enforced by boots on the ground is worthless, so asking for no NATO, no anti-Russian censorship, no rehabilitation of WWII collaborators is useless. On the other hand, if you ask for additional territorial concessions, you'll get to pacify many more people that hate your guts, plus the ZSU can go molon lave while they still have materiel and force you to actually come and take it.
So, how much is not too much?
But politically Biden loses a lot more if Israel is weakened than if Russia keeps larges parts of Ukraine.
Israel is not a partisan issue in the US. Both parties give it unqualified support.
In theory, support for Ukraine is bipartisan as well. In practice, not so much. Ever since 2016, the Democrats have pushed the narrative that Russia is uniquely evil and must be punished. And lately, Republican support has wavered on the the wisdom of dumping hundreds of billions into the Ukraine meat grinder.
The Democrats have made warmongering in Ukraine their thing. It will be humiliating to Biden if the war ends with Russian gaining territory.
In some ways, political support for the Ukraine war feels, to me at least, like the Iraq and Afghanistan wars. It was clear that the Democrats were against them, loudly even, by 2006 or so. But after Obama was elected we didn't really pull out quickly either, culminating with the Taliban recapturing Kabul during the Biden administration after a withdrawal IIRC mostly negotiated under Trump.
It feels slimy, but like many issues in American politics, it seems like blind polarization to oppose every action of one's opponents regardless of principles. If the Republicans had been in the driver's seat, I'm sure they'd be all in on arming Ukraine and Democrats would be calling them warmongers. But the 2016 Russia stuff does somewhat complicate things as you pointed out.
I’ve made a similar argument before. There was probably a window for the Republicans to adopt this particular cause. Once Biden backed it, though, there was more political advantage in playing the heel.
Jeroboam made some good points, though.
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