naraburns nihil supernum
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Israel-Gaza Megathread #2
This is a refreshed megathread for any posts on the conflict between (so far, and so far as I know) Hamas and the Israeli government, as well as related geopolitics. Culture War thread rules apply.
NEW: The Biden administration has privately been pressing Israel in recent days to flush out what its strategy is for the day after it completes its stated goal of eradicating Hamas in the ongoing Gaza war, a US and an Israeli official tell [The Times of Israel]
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his inner circle have indicated to their Biden counterparts that Israel has not yet come up with such a strategy and instead are more focused on the immediate goal of removing Hamas from power in Gaza, the US official says. (2/4)
But the US official cautions against this approach, saying that devoid a strategy for who will control the Strip if and when Hamas is removed, IDF is more likely to get bogged down in Gaza indefinitely, despite Israel insisting that it does not want to re-occupy the enclave (3/4)
[] National Unity chair Benny Gantz and fellow faction member Gadi Eisenkot demanded the creation of a Gaza exit strategy a upon their entry into the government and that they have tasked a committee with drawing one up. (4/4)
Speculation abounds that this indicates that US intelligence is finding out that things are much worse in Gaza than we realize. There is very little information coming out of Gaza right now. Journalism seems to be dead, it's a black box in there, and whatever reports we get later are going to be urban myths.
I wonder what all this will amount to. I doubt this will achieve any credibility with the Arab world for saving Arab lives, even if it works to do just that. If it doesn't work, no one in Israel will remember Blinken's advice when they're trapped in the quagmire.
Cynically, this is the Biden administration setting a trap for Netanyahu, such that if Netanyahu goes forward anyway despite US questions, the US will be able to leverage the 'we told you so' advantage to affect Israeli politics to get rid of Netanyahu once the rally-around-the-flag emotional unity passes. This won't help the situation per see, beyond maybe allowing a new leader change to stop furthering a terrible disaster.
Hopefully, the US sees the situation as a real risk for a moral event horizon and strategic cliff that Israel wouldn't be able to walk back from, and is trying to protect it from itself, and in the process save many Palestinians who would otherwise die.
Practically, the Americans are trying to work through the emotionally-driven reaction phase, and shape the Israeli action such that 'do something' doesn't mean 'do anything,' by pushing the Israelis to confront that many-an-anything can, in fact, be worse than no action at all. Whether this forestalls any action, or shapes it into a more productive action, the objective is to re-introduce long-term thinking back into what has been a major emotional shock reaction.
Since the Americans are uniquely positioned to engage the Israelis from a position of understanding the nature of the culture-shock, but also being able to acknowledge the costs of over-reaction and lack of foresight, here's hoping it works.
Netanyahu goes forward anyway despite US questions, the US will be able to leverage the 'we told you so' advantage to affect Israeli politics to get rid of Netanyahu once the rally-around-the-flag emotional unity passes.
Do you see the slighest chance Netanyahu survives this, politically? Safety has been the third rail in Israeli politics for its entire existence, this attack seems like a repudiation of the entire Likud philosophy for Gaza and the West Bank, and there's really not many spaces left to pull a rabbit out of a hat. The extent he's still in power is less a rally-around-the-flag unity and more just the procedural timeline.
The flip side is that there's not many of his domestic critics that claim any alternative to intervention, here. There's not really any vision for how to stop this from happening again without a ton of boots on the ground.
Sure, he could survive politicially. Everyone eventually falls from politics, but the key for political power actors remaining in place isn't their innate popularity, but the viability of alternatives. Even failed states continue to survive as long as no one else comes around to actually overthrow them. In Netanyahu's case, the question isn't 'was safety always delivered,' but whether 'was safety delivered more than the alternative,' which is still open for debate. Netanyahu can absolutely point at 'his' failure, and make the case that the alternative politicians would have had worse and more often. It's not like the attack has suddenly made the former left's 'let's make concessions for peace' more viable.
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Notes -
Reports emerging that the USA is "pressuring" Israel to have a fully developed exit plan before invading Gaza to which Netanyahu presumably replied "Leeeeeroooooy Jeeeeenkiiiiiiins."
Meanwhile Blinken has reportedly been meeting with the Israelis for 8 hours.
Speculation abounds that this indicates that US intelligence is finding out that things are much worse in Gaza than we realize. There is very little information coming out of Gaza right now. Journalism seems to be dead, it's a black box in there, and whatever reports we get later are going to be urban myths.
I wonder what all this will amount to. I doubt this will achieve any credibility with the Arab world for saving Arab lives, even if it works to do just that. If it doesn't work, no one in Israel will remember Blinken's advice when they're trapped in the quagmire.
Cynically, hopefully, or practically?
Cynically, this is the Biden administration setting a trap for Netanyahu, such that if Netanyahu goes forward anyway despite US questions, the US will be able to leverage the 'we told you so' advantage to affect Israeli politics to get rid of Netanyahu once the rally-around-the-flag emotional unity passes. This won't help the situation per see, beyond maybe allowing a new leader change to stop furthering a terrible disaster.
Hopefully, the US sees the situation as a real risk for a moral event horizon and strategic cliff that Israel wouldn't be able to walk back from, and is trying to protect it from itself, and in the process save many Palestinians who would otherwise die.
Practically, the Americans are trying to work through the emotionally-driven reaction phase, and shape the Israeli action such that 'do something' doesn't mean 'do anything,' by pushing the Israelis to confront that many-an-anything can, in fact, be worse than no action at all. Whether this forestalls any action, or shapes it into a more productive action, the objective is to re-introduce long-term thinking back into what has been a major emotional shock reaction.
Since the Americans are uniquely positioned to engage the Israelis from a position of understanding the nature of the culture-shock, but also being able to acknowledge the costs of over-reaction and lack of foresight, here's hoping it works.
(I'm not very hopeful.)
Do you see the slighest chance Netanyahu survives this, politically? Safety has been the third rail in Israeli politics for its entire existence, this attack seems like a repudiation of the entire Likud philosophy for Gaza and the West Bank, and there's really not many spaces left to pull a rabbit out of a hat. The extent he's still in power is less a rally-around-the-flag unity and more just the procedural timeline.
The flip side is that there's not many of his domestic critics that claim any alternative to intervention, here. There's not really any vision for how to stop this from happening again without a ton of boots on the ground.
Sure, he could survive politicially. Everyone eventually falls from politics, but the key for political power actors remaining in place isn't their innate popularity, but the viability of alternatives. Even failed states continue to survive as long as no one else comes around to actually overthrow them. In Netanyahu's case, the question isn't 'was safety always delivered,' but whether 'was safety delivered more than the alternative,' which is still open for debate. Netanyahu can absolutely point at 'his' failure, and make the case that the alternative politicians would have had worse and more often. It's not like the attack has suddenly made the former left's 'let's make concessions for peace' more viable.
Wasn't Benny Gantz's pitch basically "I'll maintain the hardline vs Palestine but have less corruption"?
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