naraburns nihil supernum
7mo ago
(text post)
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Israel-Gaza Megathread #2
This is a refreshed megathread for any posts on the conflict between (so far, and so far as I know) Hamas and the Israeli government, as well as related geopolitics. Culture War thread rules apply.
On the one hand, Hezbollah was mighty pissed about the hospital bombing and declared a ‘day of unprecedented rage’, whatever that’s supposed to be. Also a suspicious number of countries have requested their citizens leave Lebanon right now, and Hezbollah is AIUI the biggest threat to anyone in Lebanon. Finally, Israeli dithering on the ground invasion indicates they expect someone to intervene and Hezbollah is probably their biggest threat(that they’re not actually at war with).
On the other hand, you’d think Hezbollah would be doing something already if they were going to do it. There’s also a U.S. navy task force in standoff range, and Hezbollah seems just a tad smarter/more strategic than other terrorist orgs.
Finally, what are the implications of Hezbollah were to invade? They control most of Lebanon but not the whole thing- there are government controlled areas and places under other varieties of armed nut. Can Israel fight a two front war on its lonesome or would they be reliant on assisting Hezbollah’s enemies within Lebanon, and does Hezbollah have the ability to call up its allies if the IDF really puts it in a bind(that is, does it kick off an escalation spiral)?
To me, Biden's visit means more than people are giving it credit for. Biden's visit was a clear signal to Hezbollah and Iran that if they interfere, the US will fuck them up.
Hezbollah is effectively an offshore branch of the Iranian military. If Hezbollah interferes, they risk a full American intervention in Israel.
If I'm Iran, I take this gambit. Make the Americans spend blood and treasure openly defending Israel, actively alienate them from their Arab allies and force the US government into yet another unpopular war in the Middle East.
Which Iranian leaders do you think are willing to die for this theory? In the event of a US/Iran war, the leadership of Iran will have a very short life expectancy.
Yeah, the US military is not very good anymore at winning hearts and minds of a population through occupation, but they are still unmatched at fucking up specific military and political targets. Think of all the efforts Saddam Hussein and Bin Laden went through to try to avoid that (insert Saddam Hussein tunnel meme here), only to still end up getting ganked. And the US was essentially unopposed in taking Bagdad, there was never a question of whether they would manage it, always of how fast they will. Iran has its irregulars sure, but they're mostly a country filled with infrastructure, government offices, military bases, which would be fucked hard in an instant in a military conflict.
The steps on the escalation ladder from "US/Israel War with Hezbollah" to "US War With Iran" to "US Assassination of the Iranian Leadership" aren't as proximal and rapid as you are making them seem.
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Notes -
What are the odds of Hezbollah getting involved?
On the one hand, Hezbollah was mighty pissed about the hospital bombing and declared a ‘day of unprecedented rage’, whatever that’s supposed to be. Also a suspicious number of countries have requested their citizens leave Lebanon right now, and Hezbollah is AIUI the biggest threat to anyone in Lebanon. Finally, Israeli dithering on the ground invasion indicates they expect someone to intervene and Hezbollah is probably their biggest threat(that they’re not actually at war with).
On the other hand, you’d think Hezbollah would be doing something already if they were going to do it. There’s also a U.S. navy task force in standoff range, and Hezbollah seems just a tad smarter/more strategic than other terrorist orgs.
Finally, what are the implications of Hezbollah were to invade? They control most of Lebanon but not the whole thing- there are government controlled areas and places under other varieties of armed nut. Can Israel fight a two front war on its lonesome or would they be reliant on assisting Hezbollah’s enemies within Lebanon, and does Hezbollah have the ability to call up its allies if the IDF really puts it in a bind(that is, does it kick off an escalation spiral)?
To me, Biden's visit means more than people are giving it credit for. Biden's visit was a clear signal to Hezbollah and Iran that if they interfere, the US will fuck them up.
Hezbollah is effectively an offshore branch of the Iranian military. If Hezbollah interferes, they risk a full American intervention in Israel.
If I'm Iran, I take this gambit. Make the Americans spend blood and treasure openly defending Israel, actively alienate them from their Arab allies and force the US government into yet another unpopular war in the Middle East.
Which Iranian leaders do you think are willing to die for this theory? In the event of a US/Iran war, the leadership of Iran will have a very short life expectancy.
Yeah, the US military is not very good anymore at winning hearts and minds of a population through occupation, but they are still unmatched at fucking up specific military and political targets. Think of all the efforts Saddam Hussein and Bin Laden went through to try to avoid that (insert Saddam Hussein tunnel meme here), only to still end up getting ganked. And the US was essentially unopposed in taking Bagdad, there was never a question of whether they would manage it, always of how fast they will. Iran has its irregulars sure, but they're mostly a country filled with infrastructure, government offices, military bases, which would be fucked hard in an instant in a military conflict.
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Have you seen how many bunkers they've been digging ? You think if they move around Tehran, they're going to be easily targettable ?
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The steps on the escalation ladder from "US/Israel War with Hezbollah" to "US War With Iran" to "US Assassination of the Iranian Leadership" aren't as proximal and rapid as you are making them seem.
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