naraburns nihil supernum
6mo ago
(text post)
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Israel-Gaza Megathread #2
This is a refreshed megathread for any posts on the conflict between (so far, and so far as I know) Hamas and the Israeli government, as well as related geopolitics. Culture War thread rules apply.
On the one hand, Hezbollah was mighty pissed about the hospital bombing and declared a ‘day of unprecedented rage’, whatever that’s supposed to be. Also a suspicious number of countries have requested their citizens leave Lebanon right now, and Hezbollah is AIUI the biggest threat to anyone in Lebanon. Finally, Israeli dithering on the ground invasion indicates they expect someone to intervene and Hezbollah is probably their biggest threat(that they’re not actually at war with).
On the other hand, you’d think Hezbollah would be doing something already if they were going to do it. There’s also a U.S. navy task force in standoff range, and Hezbollah seems just a tad smarter/more strategic than other terrorist orgs.
Finally, what are the implications of Hezbollah were to invade? They control most of Lebanon but not the whole thing- there are government controlled areas and places under other varieties of armed nut. Can Israel fight a two front war on its lonesome or would they be reliant on assisting Hezbollah’s enemies within Lebanon, and does Hezbollah have the ability to call up its allies if the IDF really puts it in a bind(that is, does it kick off an escalation spiral)?
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Notes -
What are the odds of Hezbollah getting involved?
On the one hand, Hezbollah was mighty pissed about the hospital bombing and declared a ‘day of unprecedented rage’, whatever that’s supposed to be. Also a suspicious number of countries have requested their citizens leave Lebanon right now, and Hezbollah is AIUI the biggest threat to anyone in Lebanon. Finally, Israeli dithering on the ground invasion indicates they expect someone to intervene and Hezbollah is probably their biggest threat(that they’re not actually at war with).
On the other hand, you’d think Hezbollah would be doing something already if they were going to do it. There’s also a U.S. navy task force in standoff range, and Hezbollah seems just a tad smarter/more strategic than other terrorist orgs.
Finally, what are the implications of Hezbollah were to invade? They control most of Lebanon but not the whole thing- there are government controlled areas and places under other varieties of armed nut. Can Israel fight a two front war on its lonesome or would they be reliant on assisting Hezbollah’s enemies within Lebanon, and does Hezbollah have the ability to call up its allies if the IDF really puts it in a bind(that is, does it kick off an escalation spiral)?
Polymarket has the odds at 1 to 3, for whatever that's worth.
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