naraburns nihil supernum
7mo ago
(text post)
29943 thread views
Israel-Gaza Megathread #2
This is a refreshed megathread for any posts on the conflict between (so far, and so far as I know) Hamas and the Israeli government, as well as related geopolitics. Culture War thread rules apply.
at 0:23 you can hear what sounds like an Israeli fighter jet in the background. It appears roughly 2 seconds before we see the explosion at the hospital and disappears at 0:30.
Airstrike Hypothesis: Pros - The main strength of this argument is the initial audio, due to its similarities with another IDF airstrike. Additionally, the strength of the impact/shockwave had the ability to launch a human body and a car into the air. Cons - The current shrapnel dispersion aligns with shrapnel from a projectile impacting the road, as more shrapnel fans upwards and out - but is obscured by the trees/cars. Windows in relatively close proximity are also not all destroyed.
Misfire Hypothesis: Pros - Depending on the type of rocket fired by Hamas/PIJ we could potentially get a similar sound of impact. Also, the crater location is directly next to where the victims were in the yard and the cars (with fuel) that moved -Crater size supports this.
Newly reached conclusion: Based on the audio of the explosion, the shrapnel dispersion, and the newly published video: Both the misfire hypothesis & the airstrike hypothesis hold equal weight.
I will update this again after experts in the respective fields analyze these issues.
All around a highly informative thread by an (independent) Israeli researcher. Debunks some evidence and brings in new evidence — of particular note is a video that seems to confirm the sound of an Israeli jet. He disconfirms the interception hypothesis based on the sound of the projectile and the magnitude of the blast. His next post will apparently include evidence from Earshot.NGO which specializes in sonic analysis.
99.9% It was some Gazan org that hit a parking lot. Evidence: nobody cares about it anymore and the 500 dead claim disappeared in the morning light. If it were Israeli forces, it would still be in the news.
Then why did the media uncritically parrot that 500+, and in some cases 800+, people die in the explosion?
Because that is dramatic. The best description of the issue is not that the media is dominated by Jewish interests, or dominated by Palestinian interests, but that there are multiple competing interest blocs of different strengths. Some are pro-Israeli, some are pro-Palestine, some are pro-getting clicks/views, some are pro truth and so on.
Depending on the intersection of these interests at different times (and depending on what competitors do) then you get different outcomes. If your competitors put out breathless articles about 800 dead in a hospital, then you either follow suit or you lose the race for eyeballs. To get an accurate headline you are going to have to wait some time. So your initial headline will be "Something bad happened but it is unclear exactly what or by exactly who or exactly how bad (and maybe it didn't happen at all)" Which compared to "Israelis MURDER 800 INNOCENT Muslims" is just boring.
Similar to how the beheaded babies story spread swiftly before it could be verified one way or the other.
Much as we get the politicians we deserve, we also get the media we deserve.
This website is a place for people who want to move past shady thinking and test their ideas in a
court of people who don't all share the same biases. Our goal is to
optimize for light, not heat; this is a group effort, and all commentators are asked to do their part.
The weekly Culture War threads host the most
controversial topics and are the most visible aspect of The Motte. However, many other topics are
appropriate here. We encourage people to post anything related to science, politics, or philosophy;
if in doubt, post!
Check out The Vault for an archive of old quality posts.
You are encouraged to crosspost these elsewhere.
Why are you called The Motte?
A motte is a stone keep on a raised earthwork common in early medieval fortifications. More pertinently,
it's an element in a rhetorical move called a "Motte-and-Bailey",
originally identified by
philosopher Nicholas Shackel. It describes the tendency in discourse for people to move from a controversial
but high value claim to a defensible but less exciting one upon any resistance to the former. He likens
this to the medieval fortification, where a desirable land (the bailey) is abandoned when in danger for
the more easily defended motte. In Shackel's words, "The Motte represents the defensible but undesired
propositions to which one retreats when hard pressed."
On The Motte, always attempt to remain inside your defensible territory, even if you are not being pressed.
New post guidelines
If you're posting something that isn't related to the culture war, we encourage you to post a thread for it.
A submission statement is highly appreciated, but isn't necessary for text posts or links to largely-text posts
such as blogs or news articles; if we're unsure of the value of your post, we might remove it until you add a
submission statement. A submission statement is required for non-text sources (videos, podcasts, images).
Culture war posts go in the culture war thread; all links must either include a submission statement or
significant commentary. Bare links without those will be removed.
Jump in the discussion.
No email address required.
Notes -
Informative thread on the Hospital Blast
All around a highly informative thread by an (independent) Israeli researcher. Debunks some evidence and brings in new evidence — of particular note is a video that seems to confirm the sound of an Israeli jet. He disconfirms the interception hypothesis based on the sound of the projectile and the magnitude of the blast. His next post will apparently include evidence from Earshot.NGO which specializes in sonic analysis.
99.9% It was some Gazan org that hit a parking lot. Evidence: nobody cares about it anymore and the 500 dead claim disappeared in the morning light. If it were Israeli forces, it would still be in the news.
My priors are completely opposite. Zionists have more influence over American news, business, and foreign policy than the Arab world.
Because that is dramatic. The best description of the issue is not that the media is dominated by Jewish interests, or dominated by Palestinian interests, but that there are multiple competing interest blocs of different strengths. Some are pro-Israeli, some are pro-Palestine, some are pro-getting clicks/views, some are pro truth and so on.
Depending on the intersection of these interests at different times (and depending on what competitors do) then you get different outcomes. If your competitors put out breathless articles about 800 dead in a hospital, then you either follow suit or you lose the race for eyeballs. To get an accurate headline you are going to have to wait some time. So your initial headline will be "Something bad happened but it is unclear exactly what or by exactly who or exactly how bad (and maybe it didn't happen at all)" Which compared to "Israelis MURDER 800 INNOCENT Muslims" is just boring.
Similar to how the beheaded babies story spread swiftly before it could be verified one way or the other.
Much as we get the politicians we deserve, we also get the media we deserve.
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link