naraburns nihil supernum
7mo ago
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Israel-Gaza Megathread #2
This is a refreshed megathread for any posts on the conflict between (so far, and so far as I know) Hamas and the Israeli government, as well as related geopolitics. Culture War thread rules apply.
at 0:23 you can hear what sounds like an Israeli fighter jet in the background. It appears roughly 2 seconds before we see the explosion at the hospital and disappears at 0:30.
Airstrike Hypothesis: Pros - The main strength of this argument is the initial audio, due to its similarities with another IDF airstrike. Additionally, the strength of the impact/shockwave had the ability to launch a human body and a car into the air. Cons - The current shrapnel dispersion aligns with shrapnel from a projectile impacting the road, as more shrapnel fans upwards and out - but is obscured by the trees/cars. Windows in relatively close proximity are also not all destroyed.
Misfire Hypothesis: Pros - Depending on the type of rocket fired by Hamas/PIJ we could potentially get a similar sound of impact. Also, the crater location is directly next to where the victims were in the yard and the cars (with fuel) that moved -Crater size supports this.
Newly reached conclusion: Based on the audio of the explosion, the shrapnel dispersion, and the newly published video: Both the misfire hypothesis & the airstrike hypothesis hold equal weight.
I will update this again after experts in the respective fields analyze these issues.
All around a highly informative thread by an (independent) Israeli researcher. Debunks some evidence and brings in new evidence — of particular note is a video that seems to confirm the sound of an Israeli jet. He disconfirms the interception hypothesis based on the sound of the projectile and the magnitude of the blast. His next post will apparently include evidence from Earshot.NGO which specializes in sonic analysis.
99.9% It was some Gazan org that hit a parking lot. Evidence: nobody cares about it anymore and the 500 dead claim disappeared in the morning light. If it were Israeli forces, it would still be in the news.
I am sure they have more influence over US foreign policy (though Saudi-Arabia isn’t too bad at influencing the US either). Business for sure (though again … Oil is important).
But the media? If “500 killed in suspected Israel Hospital attack” * with an image of an unrelated collapsed building on the frontpage of the NYT is how Zionists control the media … these Zionist overlords are unusually inept. Especially since none of the things in this headline ended up being clearly true in the end.
I am not saying there aren’t many jewish people working in media (though you should see physics if you are looking for an area where I am almost surprised if a person of importance isn’t jewish). Just that the Zionists are clearly not in charge here.
*I don’t remember the exact headline, quoting from vague memory here.
Then why did the media uncritically parrot that 500+, and in some cases 800+, people die in the explosion?
Because that is dramatic. The best description of the issue is not that the media is dominated by Jewish interests, or dominated by Palestinian interests, but that there are multiple competing interest blocs of different strengths. Some are pro-Israeli, some are pro-Palestine, some are pro-getting clicks/views, some are pro truth and so on.
Depending on the intersection of these interests at different times (and depending on what competitors do) then you get different outcomes. If your competitors put out breathless articles about 800 dead in a hospital, then you either follow suit or you lose the race for eyeballs. To get an accurate headline you are going to have to wait some time. So your initial headline will be "Something bad happened but it is unclear exactly what or by exactly who or exactly how bad (and maybe it didn't happen at all)" Which compared to "Israelis MURDER 800 INNOCENT Muslims" is just boring.
Similar to how the beheaded babies story spread swiftly before it could be verified one way or the other.
Much as we get the politicians we deserve, we also get the media we deserve.
Because Israel was (and IMO still is) the most likely culprit given the blast size, the fact that they were bombing Gaza at the time, the fact that there have been tens of thousands of rockets fired and misfired by Hamas that never look like that blast size, and given Israel’s history of bombing health centers over the past 10 years. It’s actually amazing so far that they have managed to reverse the narrative entirely. But that’s why it’s important to see all the evidence of the event and consider it in full.
I honestly don’t understand this take. The original claim was that Israel bombed a hospital and killed at least five hundred.
It turns out that the hospital wasn’t hit but a parking lot next to the hospital. No where near the amount killed. So Hamas lied. Yet you still are believing their central claim.
But it’s worse. There was a 3P feed that certainly seems to support Israel’s story.
However, keep using pejorative Antisemitic claims like “the zionists control the media” to try to wiggle out of the evidence when of course there is plenty of evidence the “zionists” do not control the media.
You dont understand my take because you don’t know much about the attack. The courtyard of the hospital is part of the hospital, and this especially applies when the hospital is treated as a sanctuary where innocent people and bereaving families gather. The damage extended across the entire courtyard. Had the strike hit the actual hospital building, and the courtyard remained unscathed, the casualties would be less! Thousands were using the courtyard as a refuge, and to put that in perspective, at a different hospital (Shifa) there are 30,000 using it as a refuge. You can see the bodies of the dead children here.
The Israeli army is demanding for the second time the evacuation of one of the largest hospitals in the Gaza Strip, as well as the evacuation of all citizens sleeping in the hospital courtyard who lost their homes to the bombs. the hospital teams categorically rejected it #Gaza
I’m sure we’ll have someone in the thread now to tell us, well, obviously this tweet is propaganda — because we all know that Hamas had actually planned this cleverly as an IRA-inspired car bomb attack! This is the settled narrative, everything else is antisemitic FUD, like Greta Thunberg’s octopus plushy.
The Anglicans / Episcopalians who run the hospital, who are far and away the most unbiased party in this conflict, talk about hundreds of women and children dead: https://twitter.com/sgcjerusalem/status/1714333560679580130. Richard Sewell, who oversees the hospitals, tweeted before the blast that there were thousands seeking shelter in the hospital.
This is pretty much the doctrine I've been hearing about in the context of collateral damage to civilians in Gaza from Israeli bombs targeted at Hamas -- so long as you are doing your best to hit military targets, if you accidentally hit a hospital it's OK, right? Hamas' best happens to be indiscriminately spraying crappy rockets across the border.
The point I was making is if you for example attempt to kill a civilian but fail because you suck it doesn’t absolve moral consideration.
If your contention is Hamas was trying to hit a military target, the. That of course is different. But given Hamas targeting civilians this month in deadly encounters I don’t give them the benefit of the doubt.
so long as you are doing your best to hit military targets, if you accidentally hit a hospital it's OK, right?
That is in fact consistent with the laws of war. (Regardless of whether you're referring to Hamas or Israel). For Hamas to have been lobbing rockets at Israel all these years has been acts of war, but not necessarily war crimes if they were trying to hit military installations but just sucked at it. (It seems unlikely that's what they were up to, and certainly their attack a few weeks ago included war crimes, but lobbing rockets at acceptable targets and missing is not a war crime)
... I'd be interested in something more in-depth than just 'sounds like': this guy sounds like he's treating rocket(s), bombs, and an artillery shell (wtf?) as if they could sound very similar, and while I generally caution that microphones and especially cellphone camera mics can obscure a lot of high-volume sound, I'm... somewhat sure they don't eliminate that much data.
This seems like a "debunking" with real "We Did It Reddit!" energy. The video I've seen of the actual crater does not appear in any plausible way the result of an "airstrike."
Both the misfire hypothesis & the airstrike hypothesis hold equal weight.
This strikes me as complete FUD. Every claim I've seen suggesting this was anything other than Hamas weaponry (whether as a false flag or just incompetence, who knows) appears primarily based on "but I want it to have been Israel, so let's imagine the possibilities, shall we?"
Incorrect; I think you are thinking of thermobaric explosives which use a big charge to create a vacuum and subsequent very impressive shockwave.
Most airburst ap munitions have (relativly) not a lot of explosive force. What they do have is elventybajillion hypersonic fragments to fuck up squishy things. I don't know what the IDF uses; but some of them are even directional.
Any reasonable amount of high explosive would have smashed a lot more windows just from the shock wave. And if that didn't do it, those eleventy-bajillion hypersonic fragments in an anti-personnel airburst would have. That's why I scoffed about a grenade; it's the only way you're getting an airburst munition down to little enough damage. Though that would have been TOO small and wouldn't have resulted in the roof damage. The damage doesn't match that kind of explosive. There's blast damage, but it it looks to have been from a fairly low-detonation-pressure blast. And there's shrapnel, but not enough for an anti-personnel weapon large enough to have that kind of blast. There's heat damage; tires on cars not right at the epicenter are flat, probably from melting. Also the videos show a bright fireball. It looks to me like a fairly small, slow, explosion not far off the ground (perhaps at 2nd story level, directly over the most damaged cars) which spread some sort of burning substance. I don't know if Israel has weapons which match that pattern, but it doesn't seem unreasonable for a malfunctioning rocket.
The actual orgs doing the investigation have tentatively ruled out the misfired rocket idea 'cause of the direction and angle it came in from, but it's vague now.
Re. specifics: HE needs a pretty big volume to smash windows at a distance, specially in an open area. The shockwave just isn't that powerful when it detonates in the air. Fragments from a purpose built device are direcitonal, they all go down the bottom arc. It's probably not that though because we'd see photos of swisscheese side panels on cars and such
The sound of a jet corresponding to the hospital blast surely counts as moderate evidence in favor of an Israeli airstrike. The remnants of the intercepted rocket still being visible in the air post-blast is strong, novel evidence against the blast having to do with the intercepted rocket. It’s only ~72 hours after the event in question, so new information is not FUD. FUD would be if someone were to imply something like, “let’s not consider any new information, the previous narrative is just too compelling”.
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Notes -
Informative thread on the Hospital Blast
All around a highly informative thread by an (independent) Israeli researcher. Debunks some evidence and brings in new evidence — of particular note is a video that seems to confirm the sound of an Israeli jet. He disconfirms the interception hypothesis based on the sound of the projectile and the magnitude of the blast. His next post will apparently include evidence from Earshot.NGO which specializes in sonic analysis.
99.9% It was some Gazan org that hit a parking lot. Evidence: nobody cares about it anymore and the 500 dead claim disappeared in the morning light. If it were Israeli forces, it would still be in the news.
My priors are completely opposite. Zionists have more influence over American news, business, and foreign policy than the Arab world.
I am sure they have more influence over US foreign policy (though Saudi-Arabia isn’t too bad at influencing the US either). Business for sure (though again … Oil is important).
But the media? If “500 killed in suspected Israel Hospital attack” * with an image of an unrelated collapsed building on the frontpage of the NYT is how Zionists control the media … these Zionist overlords are unusually inept. Especially since none of the things in this headline ended up being clearly true in the end.
I am not saying there aren’t many jewish people working in media (though you should see physics if you are looking for an area where I am almost surprised if a person of importance isn’t jewish). Just that the Zionists are clearly not in charge here.
*I don’t remember the exact headline, quoting from vague memory here.
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Because that is dramatic. The best description of the issue is not that the media is dominated by Jewish interests, or dominated by Palestinian interests, but that there are multiple competing interest blocs of different strengths. Some are pro-Israeli, some are pro-Palestine, some are pro-getting clicks/views, some are pro truth and so on.
Depending on the intersection of these interests at different times (and depending on what competitors do) then you get different outcomes. If your competitors put out breathless articles about 800 dead in a hospital, then you either follow suit or you lose the race for eyeballs. To get an accurate headline you are going to have to wait some time. So your initial headline will be "Something bad happened but it is unclear exactly what or by exactly who or exactly how bad (and maybe it didn't happen at all)" Which compared to "Israelis MURDER 800 INNOCENT Muslims" is just boring.
Similar to how the beheaded babies story spread swiftly before it could be verified one way or the other.
Much as we get the politicians we deserve, we also get the media we deserve.
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Because Israel was (and IMO still is) the most likely culprit given the blast size, the fact that they were bombing Gaza at the time, the fact that there have been tens of thousands of rockets fired and misfired by Hamas that never look like that blast size, and given Israel’s history of bombing health centers over the past 10 years. It’s actually amazing so far that they have managed to reverse the narrative entirely. But that’s why it’s important to see all the evidence of the event and consider it in full.
I honestly don’t understand this take. The original claim was that Israel bombed a hospital and killed at least five hundred.
It turns out that the hospital wasn’t hit but a parking lot next to the hospital. No where near the amount killed. So Hamas lied. Yet you still are believing their central claim.
But it’s worse. There was a 3P feed that certainly seems to support Israel’s story.
However, keep using pejorative Antisemitic claims like “the zionists control the media” to try to wiggle out of the evidence when of course there is plenty of evidence the “zionists” do not control the media.
You dont understand my take because you don’t know much about the attack. The courtyard of the hospital is part of the hospital, and this especially applies when the hospital is treated as a sanctuary where innocent people and bereaving families gather. The damage extended across the entire courtyard. Had the strike hit the actual hospital building, and the courtyard remained unscathed, the casualties would be less! Thousands were using the courtyard as a refuge, and to put that in perspective, at a different hospital (Shifa) there are 30,000 using it as a refuge. You can see the bodies of the dead children here.
Here’s a tweet from the day before the blast: https://twitter.com/fayez15479702/status/1714028862928039980
I’m sure we’ll have someone in the thread now to tell us, well, obviously this tweet is propaganda — because we all know that Hamas had actually planned this cleverly as an IRA-inspired car bomb attack! This is the settled narrative, everything else is antisemitic FUD, like Greta Thunberg’s octopus plushy.
[edit] Also, because this hasn’t been mentioned much, the same hospital was hit by Israel just three days before: https://twitter.com/JustinWelby/status/1713560288148996263
So you think there were thousands of people crowded into that parking lot and despite that the number of dead is likely under 100?
The Anglicans / Episcopalians who run the hospital, who are far and away the most unbiased party in this conflict, talk about hundreds of women and children dead: https://twitter.com/sgcjerusalem/status/1714333560679580130. Richard Sewell, who oversees the hospitals, tweeted before the blast that there were thousands seeking shelter in the hospital.
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None of what you provided is close to evidence of any of your claims.
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Evidence? The equivalent, Hamas hitting an Israeli hospital, has already happened twice. Did you hear about the that?
I did, yes. I don’t recall there being casualties.
So you are fine with targeting hospitals provided you suck at war and manage (despite your intentions) to not kill anyone?
This is pretty much the doctrine I've been hearing about in the context of collateral damage to civilians in Gaza from Israeli bombs targeted at Hamas -- so long as you are doing your best to hit military targets, if you accidentally hit a hospital it's OK, right? Hamas' best happens to be indiscriminately spraying crappy rockets across the border.
(to be clear, I think this is bad!)
The point I was making is if you for example attempt to kill a civilian but fail because you suck it doesn’t absolve moral consideration.
If your contention is Hamas was trying to hit a military target, the. That of course is different. But given Hamas targeting civilians this month in deadly encounters I don’t give them the benefit of the doubt.
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That is in fact consistent with the laws of war. (Regardless of whether you're referring to Hamas or Israel). For Hamas to have been lobbing rockets at Israel all these years has been acts of war, but not necessarily war crimes if they were trying to hit military installations but just sucked at it. (It seems unlikely that's what they were up to, and certainly their attack a few weeks ago included war crimes, but lobbing rockets at acceptable targets and missing is not a war crime)
The main problem with it is (as with all doctrines that hinge on knowing the intent of belligerent parties) it seems pretty vulnerable to abuse...
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... I'd be interested in something more in-depth than just 'sounds like': this guy sounds like he's treating rocket(s), bombs, and an artillery shell (wtf?) as if they could sound very similar, and while I generally caution that microphones and especially cellphone camera mics can obscure a lot of high-volume sound, I'm... somewhat sure they don't eliminate that much data.
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This seems like a "debunking" with real "We Did It Reddit!" energy. The video I've seen of the actual crater does not appear in any plausible way the result of an "airstrike."
This strikes me as complete FUD. Every claim I've seen suggesting this was anything other than Hamas weaponry (whether as a false flag or just incompetence, who knows) appears primarily based on "but I want it to have been Israel, so let's imagine the possibilities, shall we?"
The American Press are stenographers for terrorists is a much more parsimonious response to this particular series of events.
Airburst munitions don't leave much of a crater. The large fireball in the video further supports this type of weapon.
Airburst munitions would have blown out every window in the area.
Incorrect; I think you are thinking of thermobaric explosives which use a big charge to create a vacuum and subsequent very impressive shockwave.
Most airburst ap munitions have (relativly) not a lot of explosive force. What they do have is elventybajillion hypersonic fragments to fuck up squishy things. I don't know what the IDF uses; but some of them are even directional.
Any reasonable amount of high explosive would have smashed a lot more windows just from the shock wave. And if that didn't do it, those eleventy-bajillion hypersonic fragments in an anti-personnel airburst would have. That's why I scoffed about a grenade; it's the only way you're getting an airburst munition down to little enough damage. Though that would have been TOO small and wouldn't have resulted in the roof damage. The damage doesn't match that kind of explosive. There's blast damage, but it it looks to have been from a fairly low-detonation-pressure blast. And there's shrapnel, but not enough for an anti-personnel weapon large enough to have that kind of blast. There's heat damage; tires on cars not right at the epicenter are flat, probably from melting. Also the videos show a bright fireball. It looks to me like a fairly small, slow, explosion not far off the ground (perhaps at 2nd story level, directly over the most damaged cars) which spread some sort of burning substance. I don't know if Israel has weapons which match that pattern, but it doesn't seem unreasonable for a malfunctioning rocket.
We'll see.
The actual orgs doing the investigation have tentatively ruled out the misfired rocket idea 'cause of the direction and angle it came in from, but it's vague now.
Re. specifics: HE needs a pretty big volume to smash windows at a distance, specially in an open area. The shockwave just isn't that powerful when it detonates in the air. Fragments from a purpose built device are direcitonal, they all go down the bottom arc. It's probably not that though because we'd see photos of swisscheese side panels on cars and such
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Now you're suggesting a grenade?
No, most bombs are airburst. You don’t waste half your energy on the pavement unless you are trying to pierce a bunker.
I would not put much stake in amateur photo forensics.
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Behold! A JDAM (pictured on right) with a DSU-33 airburst fuse.
Yeah, it wasn't one of those either.
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The sound of a jet corresponding to the hospital blast surely counts as moderate evidence in favor of an Israeli airstrike. The remnants of the intercepted rocket still being visible in the air post-blast is strong, novel evidence against the blast having to do with the intercepted rocket. It’s only ~72 hours after the event in question, so new information is not FUD. FUD would be if someone were to imply something like, “let’s not consider any new information, the previous narrative is just too compelling”.
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