naraburns nihil supernum
6mo ago
(text post)
29915 thread views
Israel-Gaza Megathread #2
This is a refreshed megathread for any posts on the conflict between (so far, and so far as I know) Hamas and the Israeli government, as well as related geopolitics. Culture War thread rules apply.
at 0:23 you can hear what sounds like an Israeli fighter jet in the background. It appears roughly 2 seconds before we see the explosion at the hospital and disappears at 0:30.
Airstrike Hypothesis: Pros - The main strength of this argument is the initial audio, due to its similarities with another IDF airstrike. Additionally, the strength of the impact/shockwave had the ability to launch a human body and a car into the air. Cons - The current shrapnel dispersion aligns with shrapnel from a projectile impacting the road, as more shrapnel fans upwards and out - but is obscured by the trees/cars. Windows in relatively close proximity are also not all destroyed.
Misfire Hypothesis: Pros - Depending on the type of rocket fired by Hamas/PIJ we could potentially get a similar sound of impact. Also, the crater location is directly next to where the victims were in the yard and the cars (with fuel) that moved -Crater size supports this.
Newly reached conclusion: Based on the audio of the explosion, the shrapnel dispersion, and the newly published video: Both the misfire hypothesis & the airstrike hypothesis hold equal weight.
I will update this again after experts in the respective fields analyze these issues.
All around a highly informative thread by an (independent) Israeli researcher. Debunks some evidence and brings in new evidence — of particular note is a video that seems to confirm the sound of an Israeli jet. He disconfirms the interception hypothesis based on the sound of the projectile and the magnitude of the blast. His next post will apparently include evidence from Earshot.NGO which specializes in sonic analysis.
99.9% It was some Gazan org that hit a parking lot. Evidence: nobody cares about it anymore and the 500 dead claim disappeared in the morning light. If it were Israeli forces, it would still be in the news.
Because Israel was (and IMO still is) the most likely culprit given the blast size, the fact that they were bombing Gaza at the time, the fact that there have been tens of thousands of rockets fired and misfired by Hamas that never look like that blast size, and given Israel’s history of bombing health centers over the past 10 years. It’s actually amazing so far that they have managed to reverse the narrative entirely. But that’s why it’s important to see all the evidence of the event and consider it in full.
I honestly don’t understand this take. The original claim was that Israel bombed a hospital and killed at least five hundred.
It turns out that the hospital wasn’t hit but a parking lot next to the hospital. No where near the amount killed. So Hamas lied. Yet you still are believing their central claim.
But it’s worse. There was a 3P feed that certainly seems to support Israel’s story.
However, keep using pejorative Antisemitic claims like “the zionists control the media” to try to wiggle out of the evidence when of course there is plenty of evidence the “zionists” do not control the media.
You dont understand my take because you don’t know much about the attack. The courtyard of the hospital is part of the hospital, and this especially applies when the hospital is treated as a sanctuary where innocent people and bereaving families gather. The damage extended across the entire courtyard. Had the strike hit the actual hospital building, and the courtyard remained unscathed, the casualties would be less! Thousands were using the courtyard as a refuge, and to put that in perspective, at a different hospital (Shifa) there are 30,000 using it as a refuge. You can see the bodies of the dead children here.
The Israeli army is demanding for the second time the evacuation of one of the largest hospitals in the Gaza Strip, as well as the evacuation of all citizens sleeping in the hospital courtyard who lost their homes to the bombs. the hospital teams categorically rejected it #Gaza
I’m sure we’ll have someone in the thread now to tell us, well, obviously this tweet is propaganda — because we all know that Hamas had actually planned this cleverly as an IRA-inspired car bomb attack! This is the settled narrative, everything else is antisemitic FUD, like Greta Thunberg’s octopus plushy.
The Anglicans / Episcopalians who run the hospital, who are far and away the most unbiased party in this conflict, talk about hundreds of women and children dead: https://twitter.com/sgcjerusalem/status/1714333560679580130. Richard Sewell, who oversees the hospitals, tweeted before the blast that there were thousands seeking shelter in the hospital.
This website is a place for people who want to move past shady thinking and test their ideas in a
court of people who don't all share the same biases. Our goal is to
optimize for light, not heat; this is a group effort, and all commentators are asked to do their part.
The weekly Culture War threads host the most
controversial topics and are the most visible aspect of The Motte. However, many other topics are
appropriate here. We encourage people to post anything related to science, politics, or philosophy;
if in doubt, post!
Check out The Vault for an archive of old quality posts.
You are encouraged to crosspost these elsewhere.
Why are you called The Motte?
A motte is a stone keep on a raised earthwork common in early medieval fortifications. More pertinently,
it's an element in a rhetorical move called a "Motte-and-Bailey",
originally identified by
philosopher Nicholas Shackel. It describes the tendency in discourse for people to move from a controversial
but high value claim to a defensible but less exciting one upon any resistance to the former. He likens
this to the medieval fortification, where a desirable land (the bailey) is abandoned when in danger for
the more easily defended motte. In Shackel's words, "The Motte represents the defensible but undesired
propositions to which one retreats when hard pressed."
On The Motte, always attempt to remain inside your defensible territory, even if you are not being pressed.
New post guidelines
If you're posting something that isn't related to the culture war, we encourage you to post a thread for it.
A submission statement is highly appreciated, but isn't necessary for text posts or links to largely-text posts
such as blogs or news articles; if we're unsure of the value of your post, we might remove it until you add a
submission statement. A submission statement is required for non-text sources (videos, podcasts, images).
Culture war posts go in the culture war thread; all links must either include a submission statement or
significant commentary. Bare links without those will be removed.
Jump in the discussion.
No email address required.
Notes -
Informative thread on the Hospital Blast
All around a highly informative thread by an (independent) Israeli researcher. Debunks some evidence and brings in new evidence — of particular note is a video that seems to confirm the sound of an Israeli jet. He disconfirms the interception hypothesis based on the sound of the projectile and the magnitude of the blast. His next post will apparently include evidence from Earshot.NGO which specializes in sonic analysis.
99.9% It was some Gazan org that hit a parking lot. Evidence: nobody cares about it anymore and the 500 dead claim disappeared in the morning light. If it were Israeli forces, it would still be in the news.
My priors are completely opposite. Zionists have more influence over American news, business, and foreign policy than the Arab world.
Because Israel was (and IMO still is) the most likely culprit given the blast size, the fact that they were bombing Gaza at the time, the fact that there have been tens of thousands of rockets fired and misfired by Hamas that never look like that blast size, and given Israel’s history of bombing health centers over the past 10 years. It’s actually amazing so far that they have managed to reverse the narrative entirely. But that’s why it’s important to see all the evidence of the event and consider it in full.
I honestly don’t understand this take. The original claim was that Israel bombed a hospital and killed at least five hundred.
It turns out that the hospital wasn’t hit but a parking lot next to the hospital. No where near the amount killed. So Hamas lied. Yet you still are believing their central claim.
But it’s worse. There was a 3P feed that certainly seems to support Israel’s story.
However, keep using pejorative Antisemitic claims like “the zionists control the media” to try to wiggle out of the evidence when of course there is plenty of evidence the “zionists” do not control the media.
You dont understand my take because you don’t know much about the attack. The courtyard of the hospital is part of the hospital, and this especially applies when the hospital is treated as a sanctuary where innocent people and bereaving families gather. The damage extended across the entire courtyard. Had the strike hit the actual hospital building, and the courtyard remained unscathed, the casualties would be less! Thousands were using the courtyard as a refuge, and to put that in perspective, at a different hospital (Shifa) there are 30,000 using it as a refuge. You can see the bodies of the dead children here.
Here’s a tweet from the day before the blast: https://twitter.com/fayez15479702/status/1714028862928039980
I’m sure we’ll have someone in the thread now to tell us, well, obviously this tweet is propaganda — because we all know that Hamas had actually planned this cleverly as an IRA-inspired car bomb attack! This is the settled narrative, everything else is antisemitic FUD, like Greta Thunberg’s octopus plushy.
[edit] Also, because this hasn’t been mentioned much, the same hospital was hit by Israel just three days before: https://twitter.com/JustinWelby/status/1713560288148996263
So you think there were thousands of people crowded into that parking lot and despite that the number of dead is likely under 100?
The Anglicans / Episcopalians who run the hospital, who are far and away the most unbiased party in this conflict, talk about hundreds of women and children dead: https://twitter.com/sgcjerusalem/status/1714333560679580130. Richard Sewell, who oversees the hospitals, tweeted before the blast that there were thousands seeking shelter in the hospital.
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
None of what you provided is close to evidence of any of your claims.
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link