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Soriek  7mo ago (text post)   989 thread views

Transnational Thursdays 22

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Venezuela

In rather surprising news:

The Biden administration and the government of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro have agreed to a deal in which the U.S. would ease sanctions on Venezuela’s oil industry and the authoritarian state would allow a competitive, internationally monitored presidential election next year, according to two people familiar with the breakthrough talks….

The agreement comes days before Venezuela’s opposition parties plan to hold a primary vote to chose a single candidate to back against Maduro. The front-runner in the unofficial primary, María Corina Machado, is one of several opposition leaders the Maduro government has barred from running for office. The disqualification was sharply condemned by the U.S. government…

The deal emerged from direct talks between Biden administration officials and Maduro government representatives that began last year during the start of the war in Ukraine. The Biden administration began easing restrictions on Chevron, the main U.S. oil company with assets in Venezuela, in a gesture intended to support talks between the Maduro government and the opposition.

The U.S. also announced this month it would resume direct deportation flights to Venezuela, another sign of thawing relations between the two countries. The strained relationship had limited the United States’ ability to return undocumented Venezuelan migrants.

President Biden officially announced Wednesday that sanctions will be unfrozen. Unfortunately, at least this particular article doesn’t predict it will have a huge effect on global oil prices.

Mexican President AMLO has apparently confirmed that talks have resumed between the Venezuelan government and the opposition, though some members of the opposition are reportedly skeptical. Either way, the previously fractured opposition is starting to slowly unify, with several candidates dropping out to endorse Machado instead. Notably, this includes Henrique Capriles, the former opposition leader who ran against both Chavez and Maduro.

Of course, this doesn’t mean Maduro will lose an election. He has a vastly more built-up election / patronage infrastructure than any opposition, maintains a substantial support base still, and the opposition is still split between a number of candidates. Of course millions of those voters most opposed to Maduto have already fled the country. Certainly don’t imagine this represents Venezuela turning towards the western world either; they are still actively deepening ties with Russia and meeting to discuss collaboration on oil investments.

One thing about Venezuela a lot of sources (apart from Maduro-critical left-wing ones) have missed is that there's been something of a "right turn" in the recent years. For instance, see this and this. This would be a natural development in this process.

Interesting, I actually hadn't heard this at all, thanks. Kind of mirrors a similar rightward turn in the other notable socialist experiment in the area under Ortega in Nicaragua.

Does Venezuela have much oil production left? It seems like mismanagement has turned it into ‘some in the ground, would take years to get it flowing’.

They're still a relevant producer though definitely a fraction of their former self:

Current output stands at roughly between 750,000 and 800,000 barrels a day. It’s not the 3 million barrels a day that made Venezuela a global energy force in the 1990s, but neither is it the 374,000 it hit when the country was at rock bottom in June 2020.

At least from the above article, "several analysts" predict:

industry is on the brink of being able to pump 200,000 more barrels of crude a day — a roughly 25% jump in production.

That seems surprisingly quick to me as well, though I don't really know the details of their capacity. I guess if they used to pump way more then they may still have a fair amount of drilled but un-utilized wells or DUCs.

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