naraburns nihil supernum
6mo ago
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Israel-Gaza Megathread #3
This is a refreshed megathread for any posts on the conflict between (so far, and so far as I know) Hamas and the Israeli government, as well as related geopolitics. Culture War thread rules apply.
There's enough variance in the results that I suspect a fair bit of bias in some or all of the polling (as well as shifts). But those caveats aside, it seems there are a couple of themes:
There's fairly decent support for the right of Israel to exist (even as a Jewish state) among Israeli Arabs, varying between around 30% and 85% depending on the poll and the exact question. A couple of polls had solid majority support for personally remaining citizens of Israel vs any other country, including a future possible Palestinian state.
On the other hand, it's quite remarkable (though not really in hindsight) how large proportions of both communities hold views that would be considered way outside the Overton Window in places like the US, especially if you said the same thing about a different ethnic group. For example:
Multiple polls have about 40% of Arab citizens denying the Holocaust.
One poll showed 75% of Israeli Jews would not want to live in a building with Arabs, and around half would be in favour of "transferring or expelling" the Arab population.
On the one hand, it seems like most Israeli Arabs, while not Israel's biggest fans, are generally pretty okay with it. And presumably, that number would go up if Israel were more conciliatory. So that lends credence to the dove worldview that Israel wouldn't be destroyed by allowing Palestinians to return.
On the other hand, a June 2015 poll had 84% of Palestinians in Gaza with a favourable view of Islamic Jihad, who are responsible for many terrorist attacks. Maybe a more dovish Israel would lower this number somewhat, and maybe this would moderate over time. But I think it's pretty likely that allowing a whole lot of current Gaza residents into Israel would result in at least a short-term significant increase in strife.
Finally, there's no way that a majority of Israeli Jews would be happy with living in a state with a significantly higher Arabic population.
It's interesting that despite explicit favoritism towards Jews, Israel treats its Arab citizens pretty well from the government level- after all, Arab Christians have the best outcomes of any group in Israel, which is probably close to predictable on an IQ basis- and reserves most of the actual state mistreatment for non-citizen palestinians.
There's fairly decent support for the right of Israel to exist (even as a Jewish state) among Israeli Arabs, varying between around 30% and 85% depending on the poll and the exact question. A couple of polls had solid majority support for personally remaining citizens of Israel vs any other country, including a future possible Palestinian state.
So anywhere from 15-70% of one class of citizen are against the country they are a citizen of even existing and you're suggesting this is good news for making into citizens in millions more of that class of person, members of that class who are NOT selected for friendliness to the nation? This is not good news.
I think polls are fairly useless for issues like this. Israeli Arabs live in a society where they are a minority closely scrutinized by a distrustful majority. If you changed that society in a way that greatly increases the proportion that is Arab, new possibilities emerge for the people you previously polled - where before they had to reconcile themselves to a Jewish state, now they might not be so restricted. It's hard to blame Israeli Jews for refusing the right of return when the only reward is likely going to be the meager satisfaction of getting to say "I told you so" later.
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Notes -
I've found it quite interesting to parse polls on intercommunal relations between Israeli Arabs and Israeli Jews.
There's enough variance in the results that I suspect a fair bit of bias in some or all of the polling (as well as shifts). But those caveats aside, it seems there are a couple of themes:
This seems quite relevant to determining what the consequences of a future peace deal would be, especially one closer to what Palestinian activists might like (e.g. a one-state solution with right of return for Palestinian refugees).
On the one hand, it seems like most Israeli Arabs, while not Israel's biggest fans, are generally pretty okay with it. And presumably, that number would go up if Israel were more conciliatory. So that lends credence to the dove worldview that Israel wouldn't be destroyed by allowing Palestinians to return.
On the other hand, a June 2015 poll had 84% of Palestinians in Gaza with a favourable view of Islamic Jihad, who are responsible for many terrorist attacks. Maybe a more dovish Israel would lower this number somewhat, and maybe this would moderate over time. But I think it's pretty likely that allowing a whole lot of current Gaza residents into Israel would result in at least a short-term significant increase in strife.
Finally, there's no way that a majority of Israeli Jews would be happy with living in a state with a significantly higher Arabic population.
It's interesting that despite explicit favoritism towards Jews, Israel treats its Arab citizens pretty well from the government level- after all, Arab Christians have the best outcomes of any group in Israel, which is probably close to predictable on an IQ basis- and reserves most of the actual state mistreatment for non-citizen palestinians.
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So anywhere from 15-70% of one class of citizen are against the country they are a citizen of even existing and you're suggesting this is good news for making into citizens in millions more of that class of person, members of that class who are NOT selected for friendliness to the nation? This is not good news.
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I think polls are fairly useless for issues like this. Israeli Arabs live in a society where they are a minority closely scrutinized by a distrustful majority. If you changed that society in a way that greatly increases the proportion that is Arab, new possibilities emerge for the people you previously polled - where before they had to reconcile themselves to a Jewish state, now they might not be so restricted. It's hard to blame Israeli Jews for refusing the right of return when the only reward is likely going to be the meager satisfaction of getting to say "I told you so" later.
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