naraburns nihil supernum
6mo ago
(text post)
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Israel-Gaza Megathread #3
This is a refreshed megathread for any posts on the conflict between (so far, and so far as I know) Hamas and the Israeli government, as well as related geopolitics. Culture War thread rules apply.
?? The estimates I've seen were something like an extra 1600 homicides per year across certain cities. You think that is more deaths than we are going to see out of this war?
Emphasis on "per year". Don't know what's going to be the score when this round of Israel vs. Palestine is over, but a single year of BLM killed more people than Hamas killed Israelis so far, and I'd say there are good chances Israeli casualties are not going to go above 2 years of BLM.
I'm having trouble finding exact numbers but the Guardian had an article saying 5,000 extra murders in 2020 and the FBI stats seem to back that up. From what I've seen since then the increased murder rate is the new normal so roughly an extra 5k per year indefinitely. It's arguable what percentage of that is attributable to BLM and related movements, personally I would guess that almost all of it is, but there's no way to prove that conclusively.
That is good news, I was having trouble finding numbers past 2021. Looks like it was 5.1/100k in 2019, then shot up to 6.8/100k in 2021 and in 2022 it was 6.3 so declining but still much higher than 2019. In 2014, before the Ferguson Effect kicked in, we were at 4.4. I guess we'll see in coming years if it declines back to 2019 levels or settles below the peak but at a still elevated rate.
Of course there is also the possibility that BLM will have another resurgence and drive murder levels higher again. That's roughly where we were in 2019, murder levels had declined slightly from their peak in 2016 and looked to be leveling off until the 2020 riots and defund the police movements kicked into gear.
Eh. My cynical view is that BLM's attitude towards black deaths is pretty similar to Hamas's attitude towards Palestinian deaths - they're a rhetorical weapon to be wielded more than a problem to be solved.
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Notes -
?? The estimates I've seen were something like an extra 1600 homicides per year across certain cities. You think that is more deaths than we are going to see out of this war?
Emphasis on "per year". Don't know what's going to be the score when this round of Israel vs. Palestine is over, but a single year of BLM killed more people than Hamas killed Israelis so far, and I'd say there are good chances Israeli casualties are not going to go above 2 years of BLM.
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I'm having trouble finding exact numbers but the Guardian had an article saying 5,000 extra murders in 2020 and the FBI stats seem to back that up. From what I've seen since then the increased murder rate is the new normal so roughly an extra 5k per year indefinitely. It's arguable what percentage of that is attributable to BLM and related movements, personally I would guess that almost all of it is, but there's no way to prove that conclusively.
The murder rate dropped in 2022 and is slated to drop more in 2023.
https://www.latimes.com/politics/newsletter/2023-10-20/killings-in-the-u-s-are-dropping-at-an-historic-rate-will-anyone-notice-essential-politics
That is good news, I was having trouble finding numbers past 2021. Looks like it was 5.1/100k in 2019, then shot up to 6.8/100k in 2021 and in 2022 it was 6.3 so declining but still much higher than 2019. In 2014, before the Ferguson Effect kicked in, we were at 4.4. I guess we'll see in coming years if it declines back to 2019 levels or settles below the peak but at a still elevated rate.
Of course there is also the possibility that BLM will have another resurgence and drive murder levels higher again. That's roughly where we were in 2019, murder levels had declined slightly from their peak in 2016 and looked to be leveling off until the 2020 riots and defund the police movements kicked into gear.
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Eh. My cynical view is that BLM's attitude towards black deaths is pretty similar to Hamas's attitude towards Palestinian deaths - they're a rhetorical weapon to be wielded more than a problem to be solved.
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