naraburns nihil supernum
6mo ago
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Israel-Gaza Megathread #3
This is a refreshed megathread for any posts on the conflict between (so far, and so far as I know) Hamas and the Israeli government, as well as related geopolitics. Culture War thread rules apply.
A 9000 word deep dive I wrote on the Tactics and Geostrategics of the Gaza invasion and why there's a real risk that one wrong step from Israel might end in them not being able to break off or achieve a Ceasefire.
This is fantastic. My previous view was that Hamas launched the attack out of pure evil or stupidity, but after reading this I think they have a real chance of permanently crippling Israel. There is an equilibrium where if most of Israel's neighbors turn against Israel, Israel doesn't have a chance and then, I suspect, the Jewish population of Israel moves to the US, Canada, and/or Australia.
Yes: unless Arab military culture has changed in the past 23 years, the key threat to Israel is not a conventional conflict with its neighbours. A success of Palestinian human shield/"hit while crying" tactics to shift opinion (especially in the US) is more likely and more of a threat, though not necessarily likely.
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Notes -
Israel Could really lose this one
https://www.anarchonomicon.com/p/israel-could-really-lose-this-one?r=1b6v2r
A 9000 word deep dive I wrote on the Tactics and Geostrategics of the Gaza invasion and why there's a real risk that one wrong step from Israel might end in them not being able to break off or achieve a Ceasefire.
This is fantastic. My previous view was that Hamas launched the attack out of pure evil or stupidity, but after reading this I think they have a real chance of permanently crippling Israel. There is an equilibrium where if most of Israel's neighbors turn against Israel, Israel doesn't have a chance and then, I suspect, the Jewish population of Israel moves to the US, Canada, and/or Australia.
We've seen that twice before. Israel had a chance.
Yes: unless Arab military culture has changed in the past 23 years, the key threat to Israel is not a conventional conflict with its neighbours. A success of Palestinian human shield/"hit while crying" tactics to shift opinion (especially in the US) is more likely and more of a threat, though not necessarily likely.
https://ciaotest.cc.columbia.edu/olj/meria/meria00_den01.html
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