naraburns nihil supernum
7mo ago
(text post)
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Israel-Gaza Megathread #3
This is a refreshed megathread for any posts on the conflict between (so far, and so far as I know) Hamas and the Israeli government, as well as related geopolitics. Culture War thread rules apply.
A 9000 word deep dive I wrote on the Tactics and Geostrategics of the Gaza invasion and why there's a real risk that one wrong step from Israel might end in them not being able to break off or achieve a Ceasefire.
That Egypt scenario is a complete nonsense. Egypt doesn't want the war no more than Israel wants the war, especially a war for Hamas which Egypt has very little use of, besides the obvious joy of making Israel suffer. It wants Israel to have all the troubles in the world, but so that it ends on the Egyptian border. The time where Egypt sponsored the Fedayin was 70 years ago.
And this turn of phrase:
As of writing Drone strikes have just exploded in Egyptian Taba by the red sea. Israel claims to have shot down the drones and blames Iran Aligned Houthi rebels in the region, claiming they were targeted towards Israel’s southernmost towns near Elat
Implying like it's just "Israel claim" which is super suspect, all while the Houthis themselves admitted they did it, and bragged about it profusely. Really, this can't be serious.
you think this is bad, Israel funded Hamas in its early days
People really should stop mentioning this in 2020s as something that is highly relevant to what happens today. It was a very brief episode in the 1980s, and treating this as - which is clearly implied here - that Israel created Hamas from the ground up and there wouldn't be any Hamas if not Israel - is just stupid and counter-factual. Yes, Israel briefly considered using (then younger and weaker) Hamas to fight Fatah, that was 40 years ago, and that idea didn't last long and was soon abandoned. Treating it as it was definitive episode in the history of Hamas and Israel is like saying "US created the USSR" because they were allies for a while in the fight with the Nazis. Even order of magnitude sillier because the ties between Hamas and Israel were never even order of magnitude that close as between US and USSR.
The Jordan angle is bullshit too, unless there's a complete collapse of Jordanian government (not mere "instability") - which they are very determined not to let happen, and are willing to kill a lot of Palestinian Arabs for that, as they amply proved in the past, exactly nothing would happen there. And to achieve such a collapse would take a direct military action from somebody like Iran. Which would a) require them to somehow cross Iraq without Saudis noticing and doing anything, not to mention Iraqis, and b) do that all right under the nose of US air carrier group stationed next door, and also them not doing anything. I don't see how it's a possibility.
The problems of fighting the tunnels are real, and the fact Hamas has been building it for 16 years is real too. But Israel also knew about them for all these years, and they consider it doable. The main problem would be time - the more Israel stays in Gaza with boots on the ground, the more pressure there will be from the Kind People of the World. And if they can easily afford to tell Europe to take a long hike off a short peer, that wouldn't fly with the US, especially not with Dems in power who has their own sizeable pro-Hamas wing to placate. That would be the main problem for Israel for the middle term.
I largely agree. Reading through it, it came across as a 'just-so' story in the same vein as the Trump-era 'how Trump could lead to a nuclear war with North Korea!' book rather than something from someone with actual experience on the subject matter. Far more of a mediocrity of geopolitical punditry by someone clearly not particularly familiar with the geopolitics, or just the regional national politics, involved.
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Notes -
Israel Could really lose this one
https://www.anarchonomicon.com/p/israel-could-really-lose-this-one?r=1b6v2r
A 9000 word deep dive I wrote on the Tactics and Geostrategics of the Gaza invasion and why there's a real risk that one wrong step from Israel might end in them not being able to break off or achieve a Ceasefire.
That Egypt scenario is a complete nonsense. Egypt doesn't want the war no more than Israel wants the war, especially a war for Hamas which Egypt has very little use of, besides the obvious joy of making Israel suffer. It wants Israel to have all the troubles in the world, but so that it ends on the Egyptian border. The time where Egypt sponsored the Fedayin was 70 years ago.
And this turn of phrase:
Implying like it's just "Israel claim" which is super suspect, all while the Houthis themselves admitted they did it, and bragged about it profusely. Really, this can't be serious.
People really should stop mentioning this in 2020s as something that is highly relevant to what happens today. It was a very brief episode in the 1980s, and treating this as - which is clearly implied here - that Israel created Hamas from the ground up and there wouldn't be any Hamas if not Israel - is just stupid and counter-factual. Yes, Israel briefly considered using (then younger and weaker) Hamas to fight Fatah, that was 40 years ago, and that idea didn't last long and was soon abandoned. Treating it as it was definitive episode in the history of Hamas and Israel is like saying "US created the USSR" because they were allies for a while in the fight with the Nazis. Even order of magnitude sillier because the ties between Hamas and Israel were never even order of magnitude that close as between US and USSR.
The Jordan angle is bullshit too, unless there's a complete collapse of Jordanian government (not mere "instability") - which they are very determined not to let happen, and are willing to kill a lot of Palestinian Arabs for that, as they amply proved in the past, exactly nothing would happen there. And to achieve such a collapse would take a direct military action from somebody like Iran. Which would a) require them to somehow cross Iraq without Saudis noticing and doing anything, not to mention Iraqis, and b) do that all right under the nose of US air carrier group stationed next door, and also them not doing anything. I don't see how it's a possibility.
The problems of fighting the tunnels are real, and the fact Hamas has been building it for 16 years is real too. But Israel also knew about them for all these years, and they consider it doable. The main problem would be time - the more Israel stays in Gaza with boots on the ground, the more pressure there will be from the Kind People of the World. And if they can easily afford to tell Europe to take a long hike off a short peer, that wouldn't fly with the US, especially not with Dems in power who has their own sizeable pro-Hamas wing to placate. That would be the main problem for Israel for the middle term.
I largely agree. Reading through it, it came across as a 'just-so' story in the same vein as the Trump-era 'how Trump could lead to a nuclear war with North Korea!' book rather than something from someone with actual experience on the subject matter. Far more of a mediocrity of geopolitical punditry by someone clearly not particularly familiar with the geopolitics, or just the regional national politics, involved.
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