naraburns nihil supernum
7mo ago
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Israel-Gaza Megathread #3
This is a refreshed megathread for any posts on the conflict between (so far, and so far as I know) Hamas and the Israeli government, as well as related geopolitics. Culture War thread rules apply.
I mostly came to the same conclusions as you after delving into the history, but there are a few Palestinian grievances that I think need more emphasis:
The land matters so much because the Palestinians don't have anywhere to go. No one wants them. The descendants of Palestinian refugees who fled to Lebanon in 1948 still don't have Lebanese citizenship. See also this Matthew Yglesias article on Right of Return.
Jerusalem and the Temple Mount is a big deal. Many religious Zionists consider the ban on Jewish prayer a pragmatic and temporary measure, and that as soon as the political situation cools down and/or messiah comes the Al-Aqsa Mosque will be torn down and the Third Temple rebuilt. This is a pretty big spiritual threat. No one wants to explain to Allah at the last judgement why they let the third holiest site on the planet be destroyed.
as soon as the political situation cools down and/or messiah comes the Al-Aqsa Mosque will be torn down and the Third Temple rebuilt
Is uniting the Muslim world from Morocco to Indonesia, watching Sunni and Shi'a standing shoulder to shoulder with Ahmadiyya is your goal, then I can't think of a better way to achieve it than blowing up the Al-Aqsa. Well, other than nuking Kaaba itself.
Of course israel would first ask for the hostages, in exchange for not bulldozing Al-Aqsa. Palestinians and their supporters need to understand that all their kicking and screaming and butchering ultimately means nothing, achieves nothing, and that they are the weak horse. Militarily and spiritually.
It’s just a building, nothing compared to the thousands of deaths on both sides we are contemplating. And persons excluded, stone for stone, they can say it’s revenge for the buddhas of Bamyan. Perhaps buddha would not have approved, but he wasn’t a building.
This is because Palestinian refugees are an utter ballache for any country nearby who might otherwise recognize them as co-ethnics.
They've apparently caused a great deal of problems in Jordan, and Egypt, which struggles with militant Islamism already, doesn't seem to want them.
Hmm, I wonder why that's the case, when most Jews barring the odd hardliners who refuse to serve in the military and reproduce like rabbits are accepted by the Israelis, and even then most of them are already there..
You're right, I did not but should have addressed the Palestinian right of return issue. Yglesias' article highlights one of the core tensions I touched upon though. Countries regularly accomodate refugees and mass migrations, like how Turkey (population 85M) currently has 3.3M Syrian refugees in what is functionally permanent status. If Turkey can do that within about a decade, what exactly are the practical barriers for big alleged supporters (Egypt 100M, Saudi Arabia 35M, Algeria 43M, Iran 83M, etc) of the Palestinian cause to open their borders to the ~5M or so Gaza/WB? Hell, or even the 14M total worldwide?
That's why this conflict makes no sense if you only consider the material consequences. Yes, losing your grandpa's land sucks, but that doesn't warrant a multi-generational vendetta. Yes, the Arab governments shed tears for the plight of the Palestinians, but they don't want them around for some reason. None of this makes sense unless you incorporate the ideological component that needs Palestinians to remain where they are and play the role of the downtrodden to maintain the jihadi casus belli against the Jews. This is what makes this conflict so perverse, so many people are just pawns.
Regarding the Temple Mount, I agree that it's a really big deal for some people. It's just really difficult for me to give a shit about people's religious fanaticism. I basically tried to give it as much play as possible when I discussed it in my post, but ultimately as an atheist I just think it's such a fucking stupid hill to die on (heh). The conflict doesn't make sense without this religious component of course.
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If Turkey can do that within about a decade, what exactly are the practical barriers for big alleged supporters (Egypt 100M, Saudi Arabia 35M, Algeria 43M, Iran 83M, etc) of the Palestinian cause to open their borders to the ~5M or so Gaza/WB? Hell, or even the 14M total worldwide?
The biggest practical barrier is that a lot of Palestinians want to move back to Palestine and to punish Israel for kicking them out. Imagine Florida Cubans that aren't just willing to vote for the president that promises tougher sanctions on Cuba or to take part in CIA-sponsored invasions, but are actively turning Miami into an autonomous zone, keeping US authorities out of it and hijacking USCG boats to build their own invasion fleet.
Regarding the Temple Mount, I agree that it's a really big deal for some people. It's just really difficult for me to give a shit about people's religious fanaticism.
The trouble is that you and I not giving a shit doesn't stop the Jews and Palestinians from giving a shit -- the conflict would still be pretty intractable without the burning need both groups feel to possess this particular piece of dirt for strictly religious fanatical reasons, but that is indeed the feature that moves it from 'intractable but could be solved by not giving a shit about fanatics' (see 'the Balkans') to 'not solvable at all in any world where you can't genocide or deport ~everyone from one or the other side'.
I agree! We can't control how much other people give a shit about something. What is within our control is how much support we choose to give to other causes, and my post was largely addressing support for Palestine.
I'm close enough to a couple of Israelis to speak frankly to them about this stuff too -- and there's exactly the same chance that they would give up (or even partition) Jerusalem, for much the same reasons as the Muslims.
"A pox on both their houses" is actually a position that recent discourse has largely moved me in the direction of -- but you seem to be making a sort of isolated demand for lack of religious fanaticism on this point?
How is the rigor isolated? I know there's fanaticism on both sides, but the Israeli side is demonstrably much better at keeping their shit reined in. They have Al-Aqsa under occupation and yet they're still willing to dole out what seem like significant concessions to the Muslims.
They have Al-Aqsa under occupation and yet they're still willing to dole out what seem like significant concessions to the Muslims.
Concessions that don't involve giving up control of any part of Jerusalem under any circumstances!
Like, do you really think that Israel would be cool with some other country controlling the Temple Mount, so long as they mostly let Jews visit? (unless of course they don't feel like it at some point)
I don't know what Israel's stance on an "internationalized" or "foreign-administered" Temple Mount would be, it would depend on the specific parameters. My guess would be they would be very much against it unless whatever body/country administers it has a solid reputation for taking Jewish interests to the site seriously. If a Jewish ethnostate is willing to take the step of banning Jewish prayer at the Mount, I guess that any other country (read non-Jewish ethnostate) would be willing to take even more concessions, especially when the opposite side of the pressure risks making them the target of a Jihadi holy war.
My guess would be they would be very much against it unless whatever body/country administers it has a solid reputation for taking Jewish interests to the site seriously.
My interactions with Israeli friends indicate that you could stop that sentence at the first clause -- the only reason they make any concessions at all to Muslim interests in the place is that kicking off an even broader holy war would be a big PITA.
That's the problem, writ small -- the underlying religious belief is that core-Israel is a land for Jews, and while they are prepared to fiddle with the actual geography of that around the edges, it's not a negotiable position, any more than 'river to sea' on the other side.
Admittedly I don't have an enormous sample, but from what I can tell these people are pretty representative of mainstream borderline secular Israel -- they don't like the Haredim much, and are supportive-ish of the WB settlers, if not super-keen. But giving an inch on territory is not on the table -- which seems pretty much of a mirror of that part of the Hamas position, and makes 'bloody war over religious differences' the only option on the table. Which is not something I approve of, although I guess it's lindy enough.
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Notes -
I mostly came to the same conclusions as you after delving into the history, but there are a few Palestinian grievances that I think need more emphasis:
The land matters so much because the Palestinians don't have anywhere to go. No one wants them. The descendants of Palestinian refugees who fled to Lebanon in 1948 still don't have Lebanese citizenship. See also this Matthew Yglesias article on Right of Return.
Jerusalem and the Temple Mount is a big deal. Many religious Zionists consider the ban on Jewish prayer a pragmatic and temporary measure, and that as soon as the political situation cools down and/or messiah comes the Al-Aqsa Mosque will be torn down and the Third Temple rebuilt. This is a pretty big spiritual threat. No one wants to explain to Allah at the last judgement why they let the third holiest site on the planet be destroyed.
Is uniting the Muslim world from Morocco to Indonesia, watching Sunni and Shi'a standing shoulder to shoulder with Ahmadiyya is your goal, then I can't think of a better way to achieve it than blowing up the Al-Aqsa. Well, other than nuking Kaaba itself.
Of course israel would first ask for the hostages, in exchange for not bulldozing Al-Aqsa. Palestinians and their supporters need to understand that all their kicking and screaming and butchering ultimately means nothing, achieves nothing, and that they are the weak horse. Militarily and spiritually.
It’s just a building, nothing compared to the thousands of deaths on both sides we are contemplating. And persons excluded, stone for stone, they can say it’s revenge for the buddhas of Bamyan. Perhaps buddha would not have approved, but he wasn’t a building.
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This is because Palestinian refugees are an utter ballache for any country nearby who might otherwise recognize them as co-ethnics.
They've apparently caused a great deal of problems in Jordan, and Egypt, which struggles with militant Islamism already, doesn't seem to want them.
Hmm, I wonder why that's the case, when most Jews barring the odd hardliners who refuse to serve in the military and reproduce like rabbits are accepted by the Israelis, and even then most of them are already there..
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You're right, I did not but should have addressed the Palestinian right of return issue. Yglesias' article highlights one of the core tensions I touched upon though. Countries regularly accomodate refugees and mass migrations, like how Turkey (population 85M) currently has 3.3M Syrian refugees in what is functionally permanent status. If Turkey can do that within about a decade, what exactly are the practical barriers for big alleged supporters (Egypt 100M, Saudi Arabia 35M, Algeria 43M, Iran 83M, etc) of the Palestinian cause to open their borders to the ~5M or so Gaza/WB? Hell, or even the 14M total worldwide?
That's why this conflict makes no sense if you only consider the material consequences. Yes, losing your grandpa's land sucks, but that doesn't warrant a multi-generational vendetta. Yes, the Arab governments shed tears for the plight of the Palestinians, but they don't want them around for some reason. None of this makes sense unless you incorporate the ideological component that needs Palestinians to remain where they are and play the role of the downtrodden to maintain the jihadi casus belli against the Jews. This is what makes this conflict so perverse, so many people are just pawns.
Regarding the Temple Mount, I agree that it's a really big deal for some people. It's just really difficult for me to give a shit about people's religious fanaticism. I basically tried to give it as much play as possible when I discussed it in my post, but ultimately as an atheist I just think it's such a fucking stupid hill to die on (heh). The conflict doesn't make sense without this religious component of course.
The biggest practical barrier is that a lot of Palestinians want to move back to Palestine and to punish Israel for kicking them out. Imagine Florida Cubans that aren't just willing to vote for the president that promises tougher sanctions on Cuba or to take part in CIA-sponsored invasions, but are actively turning Miami into an autonomous zone, keeping US authorities out of it and hijacking USCG boats to build their own invasion fleet.
I agree the Palestinian vendetta is a practical barrier, and the rational response is for everyone else to not validate it as a legit mission.
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The trouble is that you and I not giving a shit doesn't stop the Jews and Palestinians from giving a shit -- the conflict would still be pretty intractable without the burning need both groups feel to possess this particular piece of dirt for strictly religious fanatical reasons, but that is indeed the feature that moves it from 'intractable but could be solved by not giving a shit about fanatics' (see 'the Balkans') to 'not solvable at all in any world where you can't genocide or deport ~everyone from one or the other side'.
I agree! We can't control how much other people give a shit about something. What is within our control is how much support we choose to give to other causes, and my post was largely addressing support for Palestine.
I'm close enough to a couple of Israelis to speak frankly to them about this stuff too -- and there's exactly the same chance that they would give up (or even partition) Jerusalem, for much the same reasons as the Muslims.
"A pox on both their houses" is actually a position that recent discourse has largely moved me in the direction of -- but you seem to be making a sort of isolated demand for lack of religious fanaticism on this point?
How is the rigor isolated? I know there's fanaticism on both sides, but the Israeli side is demonstrably much better at keeping their shit reined in. They have Al-Aqsa under occupation and yet they're still willing to dole out what seem like significant concessions to the Muslims.
Concessions that don't involve giving up control of any part of Jerusalem under any circumstances!
Like, do you really think that Israel would be cool with some other country controlling the Temple Mount, so long as they mostly let Jews visit? (unless of course they don't feel like it at some point)
If not, why not?
I don't know what Israel's stance on an "internationalized" or "foreign-administered" Temple Mount would be, it would depend on the specific parameters. My guess would be they would be very much against it unless whatever body/country administers it has a solid reputation for taking Jewish interests to the site seriously. If a Jewish ethnostate is willing to take the step of banning Jewish prayer at the Mount, I guess that any other country (read non-Jewish ethnostate) would be willing to take even more concessions, especially when the opposite side of the pressure risks making them the target of a Jihadi holy war.
My interactions with Israeli friends indicate that you could stop that sentence at the first clause -- the only reason they make any concessions at all to Muslim interests in the place is that kicking off an even broader holy war would be a big PITA.
That's the problem, writ small -- the underlying religious belief is that core-Israel is a land for Jews, and while they are prepared to fiddle with the actual geography of that around the edges, it's not a negotiable position, any more than 'river to sea' on the other side.
Admittedly I don't have an enormous sample, but from what I can tell these people are pretty representative of mainstream borderline secular Israel -- they don't like the Haredim much, and are supportive-ish of the WB settlers, if not super-keen. But giving an inch on territory is not on the table -- which seems pretty much of a mirror of that part of the Hamas position, and makes 'bloody war over religious differences' the only option on the table. Which is not something I approve of, although I guess it's lindy enough.
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