naraburns nihil supernum
6mo ago
(text post)
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Israel-Gaza Megathread #3
This is a refreshed megathread for any posts on the conflict between (so far, and so far as I know) Hamas and the Israeli government, as well as related geopolitics. Culture War thread rules apply.
I’m considering that this is likely a deliberate leak as psychological demoralization. There’s little chance that a state that relies so heavily on intelligence could just accidentally release a plan for essentially ethnic cleansing at the start of the war and before there are ground troops taking the territory. For one, it’s something that even as a plan creates huge ick responses from most potential Allies in the West who have been taught since preschool that ethnic cleansing is a horrible thing that only evil people do. The wider Arab world will like it even less. The plan isn’t going to work.
But if I’m trying to convince civilians to flee and the less zealous fighters to desert, the prospect of everyone in Gaza being either killed or driven into a tent city in Sinai is probably something that would demoralize. They’re being told that flee or die are the only options on the table. If you have a family in Gaza you’ll probably be much more likely to try to leave than to pick up a weapon.
They’re being told that flee or die are the only options on the table. If you have a family in Gaza you’ll probably be much more likely to try to leave than to pick up a weapon.
Not really.
They're saying your options are:
Leave Gaza and you will never be able to return. You will probably end up living in some kind of permanent prison tent city in the Sinai, where no one will particularly want to help you out and there is no clear future for you or your family, except that we are making it clear that under no circumstance will you ever return to your current home.
Stay in Sinai, and of course you may die, but Israel is unwilling to occupy Gaza if the civilian population remains in Gaza. Israel is only willing to or capable of invading if the Gazans leave. The paper makes that point in its review of Options A and B, which envisioned an invasion and occupation of Gaza without ethnic cleansing. Israel views the casualties, both their own and Gazan civilians', as unacceptably high in the scenario where the population remains in Gaza, and believes that it will be forced to withdraw and that the mission of controlling Gaza will fail.
Now, if they could make Option 1 realistically and credibly sound more like: move to Minnesota or Germany or Riyadh, with a path to citizenship and a little money/starting help; then a lot would take that deal. Right now it sounds more likely you'll end up in some awful camp, hoping nothing bad happens to give Egyptians or Israelis an excuse to kill you. Or maybe if Option 2 sounded more like "On December 7th we will drop a series of atomic bombs on Gaza, working our way south, whether anyone is there or not, engaging in what amounts to Civil Engineering by Nuclear Bomb to thoroughly level Gaza from tip to tip." Because right now it sounds more like "We don't have the stones to invade if you stay, so please leave."
But reading the whole paper, what I get out of it is: Leave Gaza and you will be exiled forever to a place where you will live at the whim of those who despise you; stay in Gaza and we will not have the will to outlast you, you will ultimately prevail. Given the themes and virtues of Palestinian culture for the past 80 years, which do you think they will pick?
This reminds me very strongly of the argument made that the USA sent a mixed message to Putin before the Ukraine invasion by offering an escape to Zelensky et al: Please don't invade, but if you invade you will win easily. Putin picked up on that message, to his regret.
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Notes -
I’m considering that this is likely a deliberate leak as psychological demoralization. There’s little chance that a state that relies so heavily on intelligence could just accidentally release a plan for essentially ethnic cleansing at the start of the war and before there are ground troops taking the territory. For one, it’s something that even as a plan creates huge ick responses from most potential Allies in the West who have been taught since preschool that ethnic cleansing is a horrible thing that only evil people do. The wider Arab world will like it even less. The plan isn’t going to work.
But if I’m trying to convince civilians to flee and the less zealous fighters to desert, the prospect of everyone in Gaza being either killed or driven into a tent city in Sinai is probably something that would demoralize. They’re being told that flee or die are the only options on the table. If you have a family in Gaza you’ll probably be much more likely to try to leave than to pick up a weapon.
Not really.
They're saying your options are:
Leave Gaza and you will never be able to return. You will probably end up living in some kind of permanent prison tent city in the Sinai, where no one will particularly want to help you out and there is no clear future for you or your family, except that we are making it clear that under no circumstance will you ever return to your current home.
Stay in Sinai, and of course you may die, but Israel is unwilling to occupy Gaza if the civilian population remains in Gaza. Israel is only willing to or capable of invading if the Gazans leave. The paper makes that point in its review of Options A and B, which envisioned an invasion and occupation of Gaza without ethnic cleansing. Israel views the casualties, both their own and Gazan civilians', as unacceptably high in the scenario where the population remains in Gaza, and believes that it will be forced to withdraw and that the mission of controlling Gaza will fail.
Now, if they could make Option 1 realistically and credibly sound more like: move to Minnesota or Germany or Riyadh, with a path to citizenship and a little money/starting help; then a lot would take that deal. Right now it sounds more likely you'll end up in some awful camp, hoping nothing bad happens to give Egyptians or Israelis an excuse to kill you. Or maybe if Option 2 sounded more like "On December 7th we will drop a series of atomic bombs on Gaza, working our way south, whether anyone is there or not, engaging in what amounts to Civil Engineering by Nuclear Bomb to thoroughly level Gaza from tip to tip." Because right now it sounds more like "We don't have the stones to invade if you stay, so please leave."
But reading the whole paper, what I get out of it is: Leave Gaza and you will be exiled forever to a place where you will live at the whim of those who despise you; stay in Gaza and we will not have the will to outlast you, you will ultimately prevail. Given the themes and virtues of Palestinian culture for the past 80 years, which do you think they will pick?
This reminds me very strongly of the argument made that the USA sent a mixed message to Putin before the Ukraine invasion by offering an escape to Zelensky et al: Please don't invade, but if you invade you will win easily. Putin picked up on that message, to his regret.
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Gazans have no option to leave- the border with Egypt is closed and Israel has blockaded the rest of it.
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